NYT: Trump's Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign

[dalton99a]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.html

Trump's Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign
Re-election looks plausible even with a bigger loss in the national popular vote.
By Nate Cohn
July 19, 2019

...

Many assume that the huge turnout expected in 2020 will benefit Democrats, but it’s not so straightforward. It could conceivably work to the advantage of either party, and either way, higher turnout could widen the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote.

That’s because the major Democratic opportunity — to mobilize nonwhite and young voters on the periphery of politics — would disproportionately help Democrats in diverse, often noncompetitive states.

The major Republican opportunity — to mobilize less educated white voters, particularly those who voted in 2016 but sat out 2018 — would disproportionately help them in white, working-class areas overrepresented in the Northern battleground states.

If everyone who was eligible to vote turned up at the polls, the gap between the Sun Belt and Rust Belt would close. Texas, astonishingly, would emerge as the tipping-point state. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, by contrast, would barely budge.

Of course, a full-turnout election is not going to happen. In recent months, analysts have speculated about a 70 percent turnout among eligible voters, up from 60 percent in 2016.

In this kind of high-turnout presidential election, by our estimates, the tipping-point state would drift to the right as people who voted in 2016 but not in 2018 return to the electorate and nudge states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin toward the president. At the same time, the Sun Belt would drift left. Arizona could overtake Wisconsin as the tipping-point state. But even in this hypothetical high-turnout election, the president’s approval rating in Arizona would be higher than it was in 2018 in Wisconsin. It becomes harder for the Democrats to win the presidency.

In such an election, the tipping-point state could have a net approval rating that is five points higher than the president’s national net approval rating, potentially allowing the president to win re-election while losing the popular vote by a wide margin.

[brandnewday2009]

1. Something we all need to keep in mind....

Don't hand Shitler another victory!

[SayItLoud]

2. All the more important to win the Senate and retain the House. NT

[Kahuna7]

3. Go too far to the left and voters will vote for the, 'devil they know...'

That's how it goes. That's how Nixon won.

[if..fish..had..wings]

7. Somewhat disagree

First, Nixon would be considered left of most of the Dem candidates today.
Second, Nixon won a landslide in '72, lost only one state. (In '68 there was no 'devil we know' to vote for).

I believe Trump is hoping that the black/female/muslim/immigrant-hating Bubbas of the country will be enough to give him an EC victory.

Besides which, he won't leave even if he loses.

[Kahuna7]

11. Ok. Whatever. You missed the entire point. Nixon was the devil we knew...

[if..fish..had..wings]

13. Sorry

I guess I wasn't clear. Nixon was not considered 'the devil' in '72, he was popular. More popular than Trump.
People didn't vote for him because he was better than the Dem, they voted for him , because he was the best. I remember talking to them and being shocked that they did not see that Nixon was a thug and a crook.
Same with Trump. People aren't voting for him because he's better than any Dem, they love him, they think he's the best. No one is going to vote for Trump because he's the devil they know.

But you are right, it's not an important point. I just don't like the 'too far left' argument.

[NYMinute]

16. Precisely

This is why Bernie should drop out now

[Thekaspervote]

23. Agree completely!!

[Dream Girl]

4. Still want that "revolution"?

[donkeypoofed]

5. Yep, he will lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College, again

You guys have got to get rid of that thing, if the democracy survives 4 more years of that racist prick, that is. It should be that whoever gets the most votes wins, period.

[The Mouth]

9. Ain't happening

without a constitutional amendment. Period. anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.

and that would take 32 states to approve, of which about 20 would lose out.

It's like complaining about the tides or the sunrise, letting off steam is one thing, anyone thinking the situations is going to change is just jerking off.

[not_the_one]

33. and why IS that?

That is where Democrats fail.

We can't control the narrative, we won't explain in enough detail the issues, and we refuse to fight fire with fire. (That DOESN'T mean we lie, cheat and steal. It means we don't whine, whimper, and compromise away our core values.)

Americans are thirsty for someone with the guts to say what needs to be said, and the spine to figure out what necessary steps can be taken to hand turdface and the republicans their collective asses.

Democrats sat on the sidelines for decades while the gop took local and state offices, allowing them to legislate gerrymandering into legality.

The voters are ANGRY. The only way the gop can win is through technicalities. If that is the case, those technicalities need to change.

ERA can be passed, and the EC can be gotten rid of.

If enough effort was made on communication to educate the American people, that process would START with the 2020 election, and within two more elections, accomplished.

[BlueWI]

34. Wise words. eom

[Polybius]

36. It's actually 38 states, not 32

3/4th of states need to ratify for a Constitutional Amendment.

[The Mouth]

38. Yes.

And 32 of those would lose most if not all influence on the process.

[Girard442]

6. The 2016 election was held under the (more or less) watchful eye of Obama's Justice Dept.

The 2020 election will be "protected" by Trump and Barr.

[elleng]

8. ' higher turnout could widen the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote.'

[5starlib]

10. This is very sobering...we can't afford a 'revolution' right now

And no socialist-like candidates. I'm almost beginning to wonder if Michelle Obama or Oprah might be the only ones who can guarantee a landslide against Trump.

[NYMinute]

18. +1000

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. We need to give young people a reason to turn out

Nominating a moderate, Status Quo candidate will not inspire, and could suppress turn out among the youth vote.

Youth voters are seeking real change from the status Quo in health care, student loans, the environment, and more. Treading water with someone whose main qualification is simply “not Trump” is not good enough to motivate them to vote.

If we dramatically increase the youth turn out, we win.

[Cattledog]

28. 52.1% of the 18-24 yr old vote turned out in 1972.

It doesn't always translate into a progressive victory.

[Fiendish Thingy]

32. 18-24 year olds are a bigger percentage of the population than in 1972

Most of the baby boomers (myself, from the peak birth rate year of 1957, included) were still in grade school in 1972.

If 50+% of 18-24 year olds turn out in 2020, we WILL win.

[Cattledog]

27. Nixon successfully turned McGovern (a WW II hero awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross)

into a pinko communist, socialist, radical. Don't think Trump can't do the same.

[Butterflylady]

12. Im sorry

But this is laughable. Please don't fall for this. For one thing those Obama people who went for orange anal know they made a huge mistake and want nothing more then to rectify it. How do I know, because I know quite a few of them and they are sorry, however, it wasn't the immigration point, but that's another story. I've even talked to a few repugs in my building and they hate, yes hate him now,so please put this in perspective. Yes we need to keep our eye on the ball, but I gotta say they are sure trying hard to make this a horse race.

[elleng]

15. Thanks; hopeful.

[Thekaspervote]

24. Thank you!! A voice of sanity!!

[Vogon_Glory]

29. So where is this horde of Trump voters coming from??

From the Carrier workers in Donnie’s photo op?

From the GM workers in Lordstown?

From the Midwestern farmers and farm-economy workers burned by Donnie’s trade wars?

Doubt it.

[onecaliberal]

14. Sorry but a lot of people who voted for dump in 2016 will not make that mistake again.

IMO this article is a right wing wishful thought. Trump didnt actually win at least 3 of the states the results suggest.

[Kahuna7]

17. That doesn't mean they'll vote for the Democrat. nt

[richsonpoordad]

19. Would we win if 3rd party candidates would split their vote or just sit out?

The numbers from 2016 make me nervous. Of course, if African Americans would turn out as they should have in 2016, I believe we would win PA.

[calimary]

30. Welcome to DU, richsonpoordad!

Depends on who the 3rd party candidate is.

I will always be grateful to Ross Perot for keeping George the II from a second term in 1992, and then Bob Dole from taking the White House in 1996. Both times, that helped Bill Clinton win, because Ross Perot created a "giant sucking sound" of votes away from the conventional republi-CON candidate.

[Fiendish Thingy]

20. This is horse race simulating nonsense

The larger the turnout, the better the odds are for Democrats,

PERIOD.

The Rust belt was lost by something like 66,000 votes- increase turnout in those states by 100,000, and the Dems win- Trump has no other plausible path to 270 without the Rust belt- he’s not going to flip any HRC states in 2020, as long as turn out is up, especially among young voters.

[MFM008]

22. And just think

no mention of Obstruction of Justice...
No mention of Child Rape or accused RAPE ..
ties to illegal sex trafficking.
no mention of rampant racism
no mention of endless corruption
Grifiting........... immoral vile behavior and words and on and on and on.........
Just talking about him like it was Mitt Romney or some "normal"
republican.
Just plain old reelection like his shit don't stink.
WTF is wrong with these people.

[Merlot]

25. Which is why I'm focusing on Senate and state races.

[Gothmog]

26. If sanders is the nominee, then trump could win 45+ states

[Me.]

31. THank You NYT For Doing Your Best To Depress The Vote

AGAIN

[BannonsLiver]

35. What state will Trump win in 2020 that he didn't win in 2016?

When distilled that’s what this race comes down to for me. Sometimes, like in the case of the author used in the OP, people have a tendency to really overthink it.

[BeckyDem]

37. If we did not have this electoral college nonsense, Trump would be tweeting to his dumb fans

and Hillary would be president.

[Bradical79]

39. Kind of a shit analysis

It's basically brainstorming a scenario with minimal data to back it up.