Biden's projected delegates considerably fewer this month -- CBS News Battleground Tracker

[bluewater]

We estimate that Biden currently has 581 delegates in the nominating contests through Super Tuesday, which is considerably fewer than his estimate last month. This is based on our model, which translates voter preferences into district- and state-level estimates, taking into account Democratic party allocation rules. Delegates are given out proportionally to top finishers in each district and statewide.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren's estimate has improved to 430 delegates, significantly reducing the gap between her and Biden. She does particularly well with college graduates, politically engaged voters and very liberal Democrats.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/early-contests-by-the-numbers-delegate-race-tightens-in-cbs-news-2020-battleground-tracker/

The all important race for delegates is tightening up!

Interesting to note that besides Warren and Harris gaining projected delegates, that only Beto and Klobuchar are currently projected to have delegates from among the "second tier" of candidates.

[snowybirdie]

1. It's a bit early

to be counting delegates don't you think? Useless and prone to a lot of innacuracy.

[bluewater]

2. It's based on the latest polling and provides the best snapshot of the race we currently have.

But, sure it's early. Just look how much the projected delegate count tightened up over just the last month!

[thesquanderer]

18. An interesting question is, when would it NOT be useless?

I think the polls of how candidates fare head-to head against Trump are very useful (especially when conducted in battleground states). This information could actually affect who some of us might choose to support.

But polls about who is leading the Dem nomination? Not really useful in any meaningful way. How does one use this information? People may change who they support based on how likely that person is to defeat Trump, but I don't think people are really likely to change who they support based on who's leading in the Dem race. These polls are all about getting people to tune in to the excitement of a horse race, but they have no actual practical value. Well, maybe if you want to bet on candidates in Las Vegas.

They basically just give us more to argue about.

[bluewater]

43. There is never a need to get personal.

This is a general comment, and not addressed to snowybirdie, so pardon me for posting it here.

We are discussing politics on a political forum during primary season, so of course we will at times strongly disagree with each other.

But we don't need to take issue with each other as individuals. I have tried to tone down my own punchy writing style, and have apologized when I have gone over the line myself.

I really appreciate the people who have opposing views that take the time to counter my positions, I enjoy the back and forth of a strong discussion. It's what makes participating here on DU worthwhile, at least to me.

So, when I say "Thanks for the Discussion", it's heartfelt and that I appreciate people giving detailed responses of their own.

Wow. So soapy, lol.

[Hortensis]

59. And completely expected. He's no longer the only viable candidate

whose name is nationally known. People are starting to look at the possibilities. It'd be downright alarming if some of these remarkable people didn't draw people enthused by them.

Over time, of course, support will coalesce around two or three leaders. And then one.

[DownriverDem]

3. Just remember

It's about who can win the Electoral College which means state by state. I don't understand why folks don't focus on who can win the country. It's not who I like or who you like. It's who can beat trump.

[thesquanderer]

15. This is about who wins the nomination, not the presidency. Electoral college is irrelevant for this.

[NYMinute]

4. Another anti-Biden thread by the same OP

Does it look like there is an agenda here?

[bluewater]

6. The June to July Delegate Graphic tells the tale, doesn't it?

Take a close look at that. It's a trend worth watching.

[NYMinute]

12. Delegate tallies are extrapolated from polls

which you have posted already.

You never post any positive news for ANY candidate -- the only OPs one sees are showing Biden is wrong, faltering, losing or is being attacked.

The conclusion is so simple, a 2nd grader could understand it. I rest my case.

Please continue to enjoy Biden bashing - your messiah (whoever it may be) will lose.

[asiliveandbreathe]

17. I think you are onto something..836 posts since 6/7/19...hummmmm

[Bradshaw3]

31. So you're insuinating the poster is a troll?

Or worse. Well then come out and say it and provide proof, rather than hmmm. Or don't insinuate it.

[Autumn]

34. If you are going there you should check out the profile of the person you are responding to

before you go... hummmmm and don your tinfoil hat.

[bluewater]

23. Ah, an ad hominem attack that is easily disproved, anyone can look at my journal

Perhaps people should just look at both of our journals to see what the truth is?



Just click on the second icon on the same line as my name in the post to see my journal, people can do the same for other posters in this thread.

[BannonsLiver]

24. UAWchild

[Skya Rhen]

27. +100,000,000,000

[NYMinute]

44. hehehehehe

[bigtree]

8. to be fair

...Biden's frontrunner status is going to be a necessary and opportune target for the rest of the field which is trailing in national polls.

Citing polls and delegates is the mildest type of challenge I can imagine.

[bluewater]

11. ikr

If a CBS Projected Delegate Tracker is viewed as "attacking" the Biden Campaign, how can we discuss the primary race at all?

[thesquanderer]

16. I guess you're supposed to ask a Biden supporter to post it for you. But as it happens...

...Biden supporters tend not to post things that don't support their candidate. Go figure.

You see, it's biased when you post something that shows a candidate's shortcomings, but it's objective when you post something that shows the candidate's strengths. Unless it's about Sanders, then negative posts from anyone are okay.

It all makes sense if you know the rules!

[bluewater]

25. Ah, the "rules"

"do what I say, not what I do" seems to be rule #1

[BannonsLiver]

22. The OP should be familiar to everyone

They were here under a different moniker earlier this summer before being shown the door.

[Skya Rhen]

28. Sooooooooo obvious.....

[Autumn]

35. Yes it always is obvious.

[Bradshaw3]

32. And what name did the poster post under?

And what proof do you have of your accusation?

[Autumn]

36. That's one hell of an ironic statement

[George II]

5. One person with 46% and the remaining 20+ combined with 54% is sitting pretty...

As it stands now, all he needs is 4% from the others' delegates when they drop out and he'll hit 50%.

[bluewater]

10. Your math seems way off...

According to CBS, here are the projected delegate counts and % as of July:

Biden...... 581 = 38.88%
Warren.... 430 = 28.78%
Sander..... 249 = 16.67%
Harris...... 173 = 11.58%
O'Rourke... 48 = 3.21%
Klobuchar.. 13 = 0.87%

And that's a CONSIDERABLE drop for Biden from just last month, anyone can look at CBS's graphic in the OP and see that for themselves.

Right now it seems like Warren and Harris are on the rise, Biden and Sanders on the decline.

[George II]

13. I added up the June column, thinking the first one was the current month, sorry.

Biden has ~39%. Still he only needs 11% of the remaining delegates to get to 50%. Once the lower tier of candidates start to drop out, he's likely to get many of their supporters.

Warren and Harris are on the rise, but mostly to the expense of Sanders (in the state by state polls) Biden has remained relatively stable.

If no one gets to 50% on the first ballot the approximate 500+ superdelegates kick in, and he's more than likely to get a huge chunk of those, just like Clinton got 80+% in 2016.

[thesquanderer]

20. re: "Still he only needs 11% of the remaining delegates to get to 50%"

To clarify the math, to pick up 11 points, he needs to capture in the neighborhood of 18% of the remaining voters (roughly 18% of the 60-ish% he doesn't have is what will add about 11 points to his figure). But then they would need to be grabbed both from candidates who drop out and candidates who don't. (Not all the other candidates are going to drop out before Iowa!) If you're counting only on candidates who drop out between now and Iowa, he'll need to pick up a lot more than 18% of their supporters (i.e. to get that much increase from a smaller pool). The other problem is (as if often the case with early front-runners), his trend lately has been down rather than up. So I agree that his best shot at picking up some big numbers between now and the start of primaries might be from others dropping out, but unless those candidates' supporters shift to Biden in a big way--AND he stops going down himself--it still looks like a challenge for him (or anyone) to get to 50% (in this early-state delegate projection) before Iowa.

[bluewater]

26. Biden's projected delegate count "decreased considerably" from June.

It's in the OP, people can look at the graphic.

It will be interesting to see what this tracker shows after the next debate.

Will Biden's decline in projected delegates emerge as a trend? We will see.

[thesquanderer]

33. re: "Will Biden's decline in projected delegates emerge as a trend?"

I think he's more likely to go down than up in this particular metric (early state delegate wins).

Working against him:

* He already has highest name recognition. As people learn more about other candidates, not only may some of the undecideds bring up competitors' numbers, but some of his own supporters may find they prefer someone else and defect.

* He's not great in public speaking, which you can see on the debate stage. He slurs and speaks in disjointed sentences such that you sometimes have to mentally fill in the blanks to figure out what it is he's trying to say. I don't think the Harris attack was the only reason he slid after the debate. I think that the ongoing schedule of debates may be challenging rather than helpful for him.

* As I basically said in post #30, the idea that he'll pick up more early delegates over time because other candidates will drop out is problematic, because the candidates who are likely to drop out are the ones that are already showing as likely to receive zero delegates. So he can pick up all their support, and it would hardly make a dent.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

54. I agree, it's not lookin good for Biden...but, he still has time to adopt a more progressive agenda.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[thesquanderer]

55. I don't think moving further left would help Biden.

His campaign is largely built on appealing to the more moderate, I don't think that's a strategy that's changeable at this point. And he's leading despite there being more moderate candidates in the race (i.e. people who more directly compete with him positionally) than there are lefties. In theory, he has a problem in that his "moderate lane" has the most competitors, but in practice, that's not much of a problem at all, he's trouncing them!

In talking about Biden's problems, I think we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that he IS the frontrunner. In that respect, while he has problems, at this point you could say he has less of them than anyone else does.

To the extent that he's been trending down rather than up, that's somewhat inevitable if you start the race as the most well-known. Others eventually get better known, whereas you've already maxed out your own name recognition.

His other limitations in appealing to more voters, to the extent that he has some, are pretty much out of his control. A long record tends to provide fodder for finding things to criticize. He's old, and that's something that can only get worse, never better. He does not have a dynamic presence, he rambles and slurs and speaks in fragments, basically he is not a great communicator... and that's not going to change.

I do think he is very capable of winning the nomination, of appealing to the voters in crucial states, and of being an effective president. My biggest concern is that Trump owns him in the debates. Not on substance, obviously, but on style. Biden's even less of a dynamic presence than Hillary was, which is already not the highest bar. I'd feel better with someone who could better command the stage. The more charismatic candidate tends to win.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

56. Yeah, you're probably right... not sure about Hillary though.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[thesquanderer]

60. re: "not sure about Hillary though" - Okay, it's a close call.

Neither commands the stage like a Barack Obama. While they both substantially fall short, they fall short in very different ways, so a better/worse comparison can be difficult.

[bluewater]

29. No, problem, we all make mistakes occasionally.

Thanks for posting your correction.

[thesquanderer]

30. One more thing... it's even tougher than I said, because...

...the only candidates likely to drop out before Iowa are ones with very little support, which means even if Biden got 100% of their support, it wouldn't make much of a dent.

Sanders, Harris, Warren, aren't likely to drop out before Iowa, and I think it will be hard for Biden to steal a lot of support from them, especially from Sanders and Warren who are at the other end of the political spectrum.

And if anyone else catches fire between now and then, it could be someone on the more moderate side, which will actually increase the challenge for Biden.

[vsrazdem]

7. At this point, I do not care who wins the presidential primary. Anyone who can beat Trump is fine

with me. BUT, if we have the house and senate, we damn well better have someone in there who is willing to make some changes, because this country will not accept the status quo.

[INdemo]

9. This is obviously an attempt by CBS to perhaps make Joe Biden appear

to be a weak candidate (for what ever reason they may have)
But hey... My goodness we have only had one debate and its way too early to be talking about delegates
The Iowa Caucus is not until Feb. 3rd. This OP makes it appear as if its next week.

[thesquanderer]

19. re: "This is obviously an attempt by CBS to perhaps make Joe Biden appear to be a weak candidate"

Why do people look at polls they don't like and see conspiracy? If you want to get an idea of how accurate a poll is likely to be, you can just check 538.

[Skya Rhen]

14. Anyone would prefer to be in first place rather than second, third or fourth - Go, Joe!

[Gothmog]

37. I am hoping that sanders does not get 300 delegates

It takes 300 delegates to put a candidate’s name in contention at the national convention. I see that sanders lost a ton of projected delegates

[True Dough]

38. bluewater, you take a lot of flak for posting these polls

but I always check out your threads when I see them. Please, keep brushing off the "haters" and carry on with the latest info you uncover. And I say that as a Mayor Pete supporter who is very disappointed to see zero projected delegates for Buttigieg at this time.

[Skya Rhen]

40. I, for one, welcome each and every poll as they all show my candidate winning. Keep 'em coming...

[True Dough]

42. Yes, Biden is still winning

but with narrower and narrower margins in many of those polls. The trend is not your friend, not lately anyway.

[Skya Rhen]

46. I'll take 581 delegates over 0 delegates any day, and I mean any day - lol...

[True Dough]

49. Who wouldn't?

I never said it's Mayor Pete you have to worry about. It's Warren and Harris, obviously.

[bluewater]

41. Thanks! I am singled out so much I feel "special" lol

When the ad hominem attacks start, I know that a post made a particularly good point.


As for your candidates projected delegates:

If trends continue, Buttigieg would move into the top tier of candidates, passing the 15% threshold to be assigned delegates.
A post 2nd debate bump could very well do that for Pete.

[Blue_true]

45. This thing is going to come down to Biden and Warren slugging it out toe to toe.

They rightfully represent the two dominant sectors of the Democratic Party.

[karynnj]

47. One issue I have with this in action to it being too early, is it ignores that the primaries do not

All at the same time. In reality, Iowa has some influence over NH, they both have influence over the next few states. In any year, with no incumbent, that I can remember would the state by state polling this far out have been a good predictor of actual delegates.

In 2008, HRC would have been far ahead of Obama. In 2004, until Iowa, the convention wisdom is that Kerry would drop out after poor showings in Iowa and NH. In 1988, I don't think Dukakis would have been seen as the winner.

[OilemFirchen]

48. Your headline skills suck, TBH.

The lede here is that Sen. Harris has gained 228%. Everything else is chin music.

[bluewater]

50. The bigger picture is...

The rise of both Warren and Harris and the decline of Biden and Sanders.

Biden fell 20.5% and Sanders 21.5% from June to July in projected delegates. Their projected delegate totals went down in lockstep.

Now what would THOSE two candidates have in common? Nah, it can't be just.... age? Right?

[OilemFirchen]

51. No. There is no "bigger picture" reflected here.

There's only one significant lede in this story. There's a less significant one - the demise of O'Rourke - but it's really not newsworthy.

You wrote your title to fit your narrative and should just own it. It's not exactly a secret.

BTW, Sen. Warren is now 70. Got something else up your sleeve?

[bluewater]

52. The 21% decline of both Biden and Sanders wasn't a big part of the big picture in the Tracker?

Huh. go figure.

I guess I was silly thinking the loss of ~21% of their projected delegates by the two candidates that have been first and second in most of the polls was significant, eh?

The OP, by the way, notes the significant gains of both Warren and Harris also.
It has a very informative graphic showing the shift from June to July for all the candidates projected to have delegates.

Sorry to cut this discussion short, but I just burnt some liver on the stove top.
I better air the kitchen out before the smoke alarms go off. lol

Thanks for the Discussion. Have a nice evening.

[madville]

53. Great news for Biden

He's sitting pretty well as long as people still consider him the strongest to defeat Trump (which 75% in that poll do compared to 45% for Warren and 46% for Harris).

Neither Warren or Harris or Sanders are in a position to get 50% of the primary delegates. Even if it goes to a second round at the convention a majority of the super delegates will nominate Biden as long as he is still viewed as the best chance in the general. Warren and Harris would be coin flips in the general election against Trump, too much at stake to risk it.

[mtnsnake]

57. If this downward trend for Biden continues, he'll be hitting the panic button sooner than I thought

Joe brings a touch of experience to the overall campaign, so I hope this doesn't cause him to drop out sooner than I thought he would, but I don't know, it doesn't look good for his team right now. If Joe's team doesn't reverse this trend and do it soon, Joe will be overtaken by not only Harris and Warren but by Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and eventually Bullock.

[Skya Rhen]

58. ** SPOILER ALERT ** These results don't include the other 32+ states. Joe is dominating

with just 18 early states and he will absolutely kill it when the other 32 are included.

Follow the leader...


Snip...

Our estimates apply to the 18 contests scheduled on or before Super Tuesday, from the Iowa caucuses to California, Texas and the smorgasbord of other state primaries on that eventful Tuesday in March. Together, these contests account for an estimated 1,494 delegates...


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/early-contests-by-the-numbers-delegate-race-tightens-in-cbs-news-2020-battleground-tracker/

[mtnsnake]

61. Once the other 32 states are considered, the news could be even more devastating for Joe

if the same downward spiral is evident in those states as well.

[Skya Rhen]

62. No downward spiral in the red states, for sure!

[marylandblue]

63. If Biden underperforms in IA and NH, then he will decline in subsequent primaries.

He will no longer be the person to beat. Especially if there is one clear frontrunner after those two.

[Skya Rhen]

64. Won't happen - so no worries there...

[LanternWaste]

65. Polls are always "too early to mean anything..." until they validate our opinion

The first is written every day a dozen times.

The second, unintentionally illustrated every day a hundred times.

[Gothmog]

66. I remain hopeful that sanders will fail to reach the 300 delegate threshold

I was a delegate to the Philadelphia convention and saw how the process works. One key item is that under the rules, a candidate cannot be put into nomination without 300 delegates. https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf

Nomination of the Democratic Candidate for President: The Permanent Chair shall receive nominations from the floor for the Democratic candidate for the Office of President of the United
States in the following manner:

a. Requests to nominate a presidential candidate shall be in writing and shall have affixed thereto the written approval of the proposed nominee and the name of the individuals who shall be recognized to make the nominating and seconding speeches on behalf of a presidential candidate and shall be delivered to the Convention Secretary at a location as specified by the Secretary no later than 6:00 p.m. of the day preceding the day designated for the commencement of presidential nominations.

b. Each such request must be accompanied by a petition indicating support for the proposed nominee signed by delegates representing not less than 300 or more than 600 delegate votes, not more than 50 of which may come from one (1) delegation. A delegate may not sign more than one (1) nominating petition for president and for vice president. Pledged and automatic delegates may sign the petition.

If sanders is frozen out of enough states due to the 15% rule and remaining non-Biden delegates are split among several candidates, there is a chance that sanders may not reach 300 threshold