Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumKamala Harris's Debate Bounce Is Fading (by FiveThirtyEight)
Weve documented for years how polls tend to rise and fall in what are often fairly predictable patterns after events like debates and conventions. In general, what suddenly goes up in polls tends to gradually come back down after a matter of a few weeks. Conventions typically produce polling swings of 4 to 6 percentage points toward the party that just nominated its candidate, for instance but the polls usually revert back to about where they were before after a few weeks.
Weve also repeatedly seen this pattern after various Democrats declared for the race this year. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris and even Beto ORourke all got noticeable bounces when they officially declared for the presidency, only to fall back to their pre-declaration averages later on.
It looks as though something like this is happening again following the first Democratic debate last month. If you look at the RealClearPolitics average:
Biden has rebounded to 28.4 percentage points from a low of 26.0 percentage points just after the debate. He was at 32.1 percent before the debate, so hes regained about two-fifths of what he lost. Harris has fallen to 12.2 percentage points from a peak of 15.2 percentage points. She was at 7.0 percent before the debate, so shes lost about a third of what shed gained.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harriss-debate-bounce-is-fading/?yptr=yahoo
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)A couple of walkbacks, some dubious proposals, nothing on foreign policy. I imagine she's spending a lot of time on her next star turn. Can't wait.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DesertRat
(27,995 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)But but she didn't get a debate bounce, she just made everyone angry at her because she was so mean to Uncle Joe, I read that right here repeatedly...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oasis
(49,389 posts)have the edge in the "authenticity" department.
Then there's a few who have neither going for them.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Princetonian
(1,501 posts)Last edited Thu Jul 25, 2019, 09:50 PM - Edit history (1)
Then there are those who prefer their candidates stay classy and honest.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)They would win Florida.
And would be happy to support her as the presidential candidate although I think she would not be as strong a candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden