Morning Consult's post-debate analysis: Harris most impacted

[Skya Rhen]

There was no outright winner: After the first debates in June, Kamala Harris gained 6 points in vote share - a significant step forward for her campaign. This round, no candidate made a similar gain, and the shape of the race remains largely unchanged.

Voters were more impressed by progressives than moderates: Twenty-two percent of voters say Elizabeth Warren had the best debate performance, and 15 percent said Bernie Sanders did – making them first and second in that regard.

Harris’s performance set her back: Along with losing 3 points in vote share, Harris’s net favorability dropped by 11 points (seven points more than any other candidate).

Biden didn’t make gains, but he weathered attacks: Despite facing criticisms from competitors all night, Biden held steady in terms of favorability and vote share


https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Political-Intelligence-8.5.19.pdf

[LakeArenal]

1. Despite attacks on Obama's AND Biden's legacy.

Hate when Joe is framed as a bystander to the Obama Administration. Joe is damned if he claims it or damned if he would deny any of it. Yet our own, are the ones who damn him.

Despite all, Joe remains the most qualified both nationally and ( maybe more importantly) globally.

Maybe others can pull off president of the US but none of them have the overall experience and positive recognition in the world.

[Thekaspervote]

2. +1000

[Kahuna7]

3. Seriously...In my opinion...

when Joe's qualifications, knowledge and experience, are stack against every single candidate, there's just no comparison and I don't see how anyone can seriously claim that anyone is more qualified than Biden. Is he the best debater? No. But that isn't a qualification for the job. Neither is being a prosecutor.

Don't @ me.

[LakeArenal]

6. Said it before but:

I am way more Perry Mason than Hamilton Berger.

I would prefer my Prez to be a defender of the people against the powers that Be. not the accuser.

[question everything]

25. And how many on these pages, do you think, get this comparison?

[LakeArenal]

28. I'm guessing the prosecutor in the race would!

But you did. Good enough for me!😉

[LakeArenal]

29. PS. Klobuchar for VP would be a great ticket

[squirecam]

41. Yes

I think he needs a Midwest VP. Also a woman.

Amy fits the bill.

[emmaverybo]

27. +1000

[Peacetrain]

4. +1000

Nothing he says or does not say will be fuel for the fire.. so go go go Joe.. He weathered it all..

[StevieM]

34. Ironically, neither Biden nor Obama has been attacked for the worst mistake they ever made.

Appointing James Comey as FBI director.

[Demsrule86]

5. Interesting...thanks!

K&R

[2020Junker]

7. It's interesting the progressives did best

We're told with much frequency that the party isn't as liberal as progressives think, but Warren and Sanders were basically surrounded by moderates all night, and they came out the best.

I can think of a few reasons for why that is (part of it is policy, part of it is how well they rejoined criticisms and attacks - particularly Warren).

We really need to see a debate with Warren, Sanders, Biden, Harris, and Buttigieg to get a better grasp on how our party dynamics currently play. In particular, having Warren and Biden separated for both debates now is a little bit of a disservice. It feels like we're not getting a holistic picture of where the party is at this point in time because the best representatives of two wings of the party are being kept from speaking to each other on these platforms.

Hopefully this gets resolved in September. I at least want Biden and Warren in the same forum.

[Demsrule86]

8. They are still losing...and this is a very small poll...Sanders in second and Warren in third.

I don't believe debates move the needle...Harris had a bump because people though she was tough but then the info came out about the t-shirts and poster and that was that...people don't like that sort of thing...doubled down in the second and it left a mark.

[2020Junker]

10. It's just too early

Most people aren't paying attention at this juncture. We're paying attention because we're political junkies. What gets through is whatever the headlines are the day after. That's why Biden took a bit of a hit after the first debate. His performance and Harris's attack made the headlines. And now we're seeing Harris falter after the second debate, because she got put back on her heels. (I doubt anyone anywhere outside of interested online political junkies ever knew or cared about the t-shirt thing. It was inside baseball).

The media are filtering it to the people who don't pay attention but are aware enough to see the headlines. That's all that's coming out of these early debates. I don't put a lot of stock in polls until we get close to actual voting. And then there will be votes. People in the lead now are not necessarily who will be in the lead come Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Things are fluid.

We're just going to have to see how it all plays out.

[Demsrule86]

19. I think Biden'support will only increase as poll after poll shows people think he can beat Trump.

[LakeArenal]

30. Me too. Not too early for me.

It’s always going to be too early for some while Biden leads.

[Demsrule86]

20. I don't think the party is as progressive as some think...40 moderates won the house...but no matter

what, the electorate we need to win is not that progressive and we will lose a general if we are too far left. We live in a center left country at best, and there is electoral evidence (midterms) that we need a person who can appeal to moderates and even some righties Such a nominee could help win the Senate as well.

[LakeArenal]

31. The terms tick me off a bit..

I think of my self is very liberal. I’m totally free college, universal health, impeaching every appointment dufuss has made.

But because I want Biden I’m labeled not progressive. Which is bs.

Just because I don’t think all those things can happen until we control the Senate, or definitely in a first term, means my label changes? That’s some bs to me.

[2020Junker]

36. The labels are just too amorphous

My personal policy preferences are closer to Warren and Sanders than Biden. My first choice? Buttigieg. He's nowhere near as progressive as I personally am. But the reasons I like him aren't absolutely defined by preferred policies. Presidents require many different facets to function effectively.

If you see something in Biden that speaks to you, go for it.

[2020Junker]

37. The House is decided in the middle at the moment

So it serves to say, we win our majorities when moderate Dems start winning those middling districts.

But I am intensely curious to see what the primary poll numbers would look like if, say, Sanders wasn't in the race. I think Warren would be showing numbers very close to or within reach of Biden.

The Democratic Party doesn't have a moderate base. Nor does it have an outlandishly liberal base. It has both, with a lot of mushiness in the center of the thing.

[highplainsdem]

9. Warren and Sanders were ahead on debate performance. But we're not electing a debater-in-chief.

[comradebillyboy]

12. They can't get away with brushing off legitimate criticism

of their proposals by calling them Republican talking points. Even if those critiques were Republican talking points, Sanders and Warren would have to respond if one of them is nominated. I never thought Sanders was electable and I beginning to think Warren isn't either.

[comradebillyboy]

11. I am beginning to have doubts about Harris' political

skills and am warming more to Joe. I think a Biden-Klobuchar ticket would be pretty good.

[Kahuna7]

14. Biden/Klobuchar would probably be better

than Biden/Harris. Harris seems to be directing her policy proposals mainly to blacks. Not cool. I do not like the race, gender and age divisions that are being sewn by some of the candidates, their supporters and pundits.

[peggysue2]

13. And Booker's aggressive strategy won him . . .

a miserable 1 point in the polls. The 'eat our own' tactic isn't working. Who would have thunk it???

[Kahuna7]

15. So, Booker was Harris' wing person... I hope he can now see that..

playing the race card isn't helpful to the candidates or the party. It didn't help her. It didn't help him. So, just stop it. Nothing good ever comes of it.

[Joe941]

39. I disagree

[dr03]

16. Biden

I just think Biden is a weak candidate. He's run multiple times and never gotten anywhere.

I'd rather go with someone new.

[Skya Rhen]

17. I'd rather follow the leader to victory - Let's go, Joe!!!

[highplainsdem]

21. His earlier runs for president are irrelevant. He's been the front-runner in this

race for months.

And that means he isn't a weak candidate.

After all, if he's supposedly a weak candidate yet he's been the front-runner for months, what does that say about all the other candidates?

[Skya Rhen]

22. +100,000

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. It says he's both liked AND people think he has the

best shot at beating trump.

Some people are picking solely on who they like and who's policies the ascribe to.

But many are thinking they are ALL great but if you show no evidence you can beat trump it's all in vain. Biden continues to lead in matchups in critical states.

[NoMoreRepugs]

26. Everyone is entitled to have an opinion. Polling says he has gotten somewhere.

[LakeArenal]

32. Yes that vice prez gig was so damaging

Sarcasm thingie.

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. K&R

[highplainsdem]

23. Quinnipiac's analysis: Biden survives, Warren thrives and Harris dives

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08062019_ubrt73.pdf/

That's several paragraphs from the top:

“Biden survives, Warren thrives and Harris dives as debate number two shakes up the primary,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

[LakeArenal]

33. Sad that those description are from Dems eating their own.

[Princetonian]

35. lol! Somebody over at Quinnipiac must be an aspiring NY Daily News headline writer.

[Joe941]

38. Tulsi's attack on her was brutal