Is Elizabeth Warren Electable?

[applegrove]

Is Elizabeth Warren Electable? 

August 9, 2019 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 348 Comments 

https://politicalwire.com/2019/08/09/is-elizabeth-warren-electable/ 

"SNIP...... 

Aaron Blake: “A new poll from Stanley Greenberg of left-leaning Democracy Corps provides some more encouraging signs for Warren. It tested both her and Biden against Trump, seeking to find out how the leading candidates from the party’s two flanks might compare in a 2020 general election. The answer is: pretty similarly.” 

While Biden leads by eight points (49-41) in a race that includes Rep. Justin Amash (I-Mich.) as the Libertarian nominee, Warren leads by six (49-43). What’s more, Greenberg finds that, while Biden does better among independents (+10 vs. Warren’s +5), Warren consolidates Democrats better (getting 90 percent of their support vs. Biden’s 86 percent). And while Biden gets 21 percent of Republican moderates, Warren gets a respectable 15 percent.” 

“Perhaps most importantly for Warren, she actually does just as well as Biden among working-class white voters. Both trail by 19 points with a group Trump won by 27 points in 2016 — a margin he’ll probably need to match in 2020.” 

.....SNIP"

[Voltaire2]

1. My guess is that we are going to find out.

I think nobody will have enough delegates to get through on the first round, and that Sanders and Harris will end up backing Warren, and their votes together will be enough. Of course this is all idle speculation now.

[Thekaspervote]

7. Polls show sanders supporters 2nd choice is Biden

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548

[Demsrule86]

8. I don't agree...and if that were to happen, we will lose the general if there is any contested

convention. The nominee with the most vote moves forward with super delegate help...or we lose. We have never won a contested election...folks worried about splitting the vote should drop out. She is not electable in the Mid West...Trump wins an electoral college victory and remains in office...a nightmare scenario.

[Voltaire2]

10. So if, just as a theoretical example,

Biden has about 35% of the delegates and Harris Sanders and Warren have 60% between them, you think Biden should be the nominee?

Nah, that would be the recipe for defeat.

[Demsrule86]

15. It won't work out that way...I see three candidates when the dust settles and two are now below the

15% mark so could get few if any delegates...Someone will be at 50 or higher or damned close...and that person needs to be the nominee...those who split the vote...someone drops out before the convention...it is too important an election...Also, Democratic voters are pretty smart, they know a contested election will lead to a loss and all any of us want is Trump gone

[Demsrule86]

16. Harris who polls worse than Warren by the way is unlikely to be a contender at the

the convention...also,neither candidate is even close to 30% at the moment...I would bet that Biden will have enough to avoid a contested convention...and we will defeat Trump.

[Voltaire2]

24. Sure if there is a candidate that has a majority that is fine.

But that is not what we were discussing, was it? We were discussing the situation where no single candidate ends up with a majority of the elected delegates. In that situation it is entirely likely that the progressive wing, Sanders Warren Harris etc, would have more delegates than the centrist wing, and in fact would have a majority between them, based on the current polling data.

[BlueMTexpat]

28. It's my bet that the Sanders "Bernie Bros"

will back no one other than Sanders. Period.

Unless it's in the GE, when they'll likely turn to third party candidates, just for spite.

Other Sanders supporters are more fluid, more credible ... and more sane.

[evertonfc]

2. probably.

I just think she has less chance at grabbing Texas and Florida. Our candidate will get more votes but getting to 270 will be easier for some than others. Win Florida or Texas and go to bed early folks

[True Dough]

3. Glad to see this

I definitely believe Warren is electable. She's coming on strong in the polls and it's not by chance. She's making fantastic points, and when it comes to standing up against Trump, she's making those points forcefully and effectively.

[jimlup]

4. Warren is very electable

Biden might falter and suffer from Hillary syndrome. Not trying to upset anyone but honestly, what the mainsteam dems don't grasp is that we need someone bold to beat the shithead Reptilians not another rerun of a luke warm pretend to be progressive mainstreamer.

People need to be lead with bold ideas. Otherwise, they rebel. That is what we saw in 2016 but I think many mainstream dems missed the message.

[Demsrule86]

9. What the progressive wing does not understand is that without moderate voters, independent and some

GOP votes, we will not win the 2020 general. There are not enough Democratic votes to pull it off alone...Warren will not win a general in the states we need.

[Ninga]

33. I have faith that such voters will not put trump

back in because in 14 months from now, the D nominee will be viewed as sane and measured compared to him....no matter who the D nominee is

[Demsrule86]

34. They will put Trump in office if they don't think our nominee is better...we hate Trump here...

but while some may not like Trump...and are open to moving...much will depend on the candidate. He could win by winning PA,WI and MI...

[Demsrule86]

59. You are wrong. The incumbent has an advantage...Trumps folks are very motivated...I don't see

anyone beating Trump but Biden and maybe Sanders who forged relationships with the rust belt in 16. Consider that Warren is not doing well with AA...a core constituency she needs to win big with...and she will lose points because she is a woman...very sexist in this country...it will be a disaster should she be the nominee. Another term for Trump and we won't recognize this country. Trump will win an electoral college victory in the blue wall states...and we could even lose the house. I am hoping that people will understand our dire situation and make Biden the nominee...no guarantees but he has the best chance.

[jimlup]

40. Well we didn't in 2016

a lot of progressives who towed the line in 2016 are pretty disillusioned speaking for myself.

Not that I won't support the ticket - I'd vote for sewage over Trump but my enthusiasm will wane and honestly that matters. One thing that I have noticed in my 61 years. When I am enthusiastic enough to work for the candidate (that is I'm motivated enough to hit the pavement and go door to door and contribute real money etc.) - that candidate wins. When I am not, well, often they don't.

[Demsrule86]

58. Many progressives also let us down by voting for Stein or staying home.This is a center left country

a progressive will not win the general...the midterms clearly showed this...with 40 moderates winning election.You run Warren and we could lose the House as well...MFA will kill her chance as will reparations, free college etc...all worthy ideas but simply will not work in this electorate. And 16 was unlike any election in my lifetime...but in order to win, we need three states. Biden can win those states...and maybe Sanders. He made some connections last time. No one else will. We have a real shot at taking Ohio and other states with Biden...he would help with the Senate as well as we need purple and red state Democrats to win. Progressives have not made their case to country...this primarying Democrats and talking all the time in insulated blue states about policy that won't pass now maybe ever will not win hearts and minds in Ohio or Pennsylvania.

[jimlup]

62. We have a different outlook on the electorate

I'll just pray that you are correct. My fear is that you are not.

[Demsrule86]

64. How do you explain 40 moderates giving us the house? I wish we were a progressive country...we

would be a better country...but we simply can't let the GOP keep winning...we need Howard Dean's 50 state strategy. We have to accept the reality of our situation now...it won't always be this way...but for now, we need to run someone who can win. This is not going to be easy. I look at the electoral college map...and see how we win, and we are in a dire situation right now since we lost the blue wall states. Biden can get them back and maybe some others too...take the senate

[Blue_true]

53. You seem really invested in the "Warren can't win key swing states idea".

You seem to repeat it at every opportunity. I think that you are dead wrong. We had a mayoral election in my red city last August. The democrat was pretty leftwing, a proud progressive, she just barely lost in a city where Republican's outnumber Dems by around 50%.

It is about the messenger. Warren has shown that she is willing to go into conservative areas to campaign. She does not sugar-coat stuff to get votes, she tells it like it is. I knew this because of what friends from her state tell me, news reports say that she go into conservative places and leave with more supporters, that is how we beat republicans, reduce their margins where they are strong.

[Demsrule86]

60. Consider it a warning...I want to win...and I live in the Mid West...she won't win here...she will

lose the blue wall states and Trump will win in the electoral college. I repeat it because it is true...IMHO. She is running on MFA... not popular here, and reparations again not popular...free college all that stuff will be seen as socialist and east coast-geography matters.They will put Trump back in...she is further handicapped because she is a woman running in a sexist country and Warren does not have sufficient AA support...a very important constituency. I don't dislike Warren...I just don't think she can win the presidency...we deceive ourselves if we believe a person with her views will win a national election in a center left country and give us back the blue wall states without which we lose...I would vote for anyone who can win...some of you here know I dislike Sen. Sanders...but he is my second choice...why you ask? I believe Sanders is the only candidate other than Biden who stands a chance in blue wall states and could win in 2020. He made some friends in this area in 2016. It is not about the candidate for me although I like and admire Joe, it is about winning and getting the monstrous Trump bastard out.

[Blue_true]

65. As a consequence of winning the nomination, she will have to run on

a platform that is more moderate than what she is proposing.

You are a really strong DU member, the real deal that has been here for a while. So you definitely are not some troll. But having said that, I just don't ubderstand your insistence that Warren can't win a General, I believe that given the way she campaigns, you are bigly wrong (to use a Trump, puke provoking, word).

[Demsrule86]

67. Have you looked at the electoral college map? When we lost the blue wall MI, WI and PA we

lost our path to the presidency not just in 20 but going forward...Warren will not moderate IMHO. It is not her nature but even if she did, it is probably too late...the attack ads are written...and in moderate purple Mid Western states,she won't win. Biden and Sanders to a lesser degree have a better chance in the region which we must win or we lose the election. I live in the mid west..Biden could take Ohio too...why would anyone not vote for someone who can win? I don't think Sen. Warren can win...she has my vote if she is the nominee but I fear a loss in the general if that is the case. I don't dislike her but I want Trump gone.

[Thekaspervote]

11. Ummmm not so much. She has to do better with the AA vote. Right now she's at 4%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3635

That will not win the election

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

20. That poll seems focused on the primaries.

If she is the candidate, hopefully she'll do better than 4% of the AA vote against Trump. Also, not sure if the poll covers the Republican voters who will cross over in open primaries. They will probably be "anyone but Biden", and Trump will really really want to go against someone he can call "Pocahontas". So she could sweep into the Dem candidacy on a wave of Republican voters.

[Demsrule86]

35. If she is not supported in the primaries...she won't be the nominee.

[5starlib]

13. What good are big ideas if you're not in power?

Warren can't beat Trump. She will be the next Dukakis and Kerry. They will pummel her to death on all her left wing positions such as MFA and decriminalizing border crossings. She doesn't have a natural base in any swing state. Her main support lies in the coastal states. To make it worse, she doesn't do well with many African American voters. She's not appealing to them. I struggle to see her getting 270 EV's.

[Demsrule86]

36. Very true...welcome to DU.

[MarcA]

27. True and very well stated. n/t

[OKNancy]

5. She better do better with the African-American community

if she not only wants the nomination, but to get them out to vote.

I worry about the electoral college with Warren, not so much with Biden.

[calguy]

6. Although I like a lot of her ideas.....

I have a very hard time thinking it'll play well in a general election. I'm not sure which of all the positions are hers, but running on issues like medicare for all, forgiving student debt, reparations, and a host of other far left positions just won't give us the best chance to win. I know a lot of DUers will disagree with me, and that's OK. I've seen all the elections since JFK, and extreme positions just don't win in general elections. If we don't win, we can throw everything down the toilet.

[Thekaspervote]

12. I agree with you completely! As much as I would luv to see a FE prez the numbers aren't there

[dlk]

14. This is Such a Sexist Premise/Question

Enough already.

[applegrove]

19. No. I am a Biden supporter. Why? He's a good guy and right now the most electable.

Warren needs to prove her crossover appeal to independants and moderates is atrong too. I like Warren's policies more but i am with african americans who see Biden as the most practical way to get rid of Trump. If Warren can prove she can really do it too i would switch my support to her. She has to match him or better. She is up to it. Come on!

[nini]

80. So that question only be asked about men?

She's ruining for president and it's a legit question.

Equal treatment means equal. I've seen the same question about Sanders, Beto etc.

It's a fair question for every candidate.

[highplainsdem]

17. There have been a number of polls showing Warren would beat Trump in the GE.

Usually the polls show Biden beating Trump by the widest margin, and Sanders also beating Trump by almost as wide a margin. Beating Trump by 6 points is one of the widest, maybe the widest, margin I've seen mentioned for Warren so far. I've seen polls showing Biden beating Trump by as much as 13 points.

There have also been some polls showing that only Biden, or only Biden and Sanders, would beat Trump, with other Democratic candidates losing to him by a narrow margin.

Re support from Dems versus support from independents -- most of the polls I can recall show Biden doing best at consolidating support from Democrats. But poll findings often vary.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

18. I think she is and so may this never-Trumpster....

Link to tweet

I generally despise Kristol from his past history but he can occasionally point out some good GOP insider info.

KY.....

[DrToast]

31. Kristol didn't opine if she could win

He just says Republicans would deserve her.

[JI7]

38. but it implies a lot. many people who didn't think much of her have

become impressed at how she has been coming along.

[myohmy2]

21. yes!

...

[Lordquinton]

22. YES!

Electable is the current buzzword being used. It really doesn't mean anything, but it sounds good if you don't think about it. The past several presidents haven't been "Electable" yet they won.

[Persondem]

23. Doubtful. Too pedantic. Little warmth. Wordy plans. nt

[flamingdem]

25. I wish she was but think she's

sitting too far left for a lot of moderate dems and way too left for repukes.

If Biden wasn't in it she'd be my pick though it might be a nail biter.

[TexasBushwhacker]

45. You think moderate Dems would vote for Trump over Warren?

No fucking way!

[flamingdem]

47. I see your point. Moderates / Independents

might not veer Dem though, either by abstaining or voting repuke.

[stonecutter357]

26. lul YES !

[NNadir]

29. Yes, because whence she comes.

Reality is sinking in and above everything, she comes from a very different place, specifically, the real world, not a world she created, but one of which she is acutely aware. She has plans which is real word for "ideas."

After the buffoonery, the country is thrusting for a grown up from the real world who grew up and did so in the real world.

Every day I admire her more, and no, my primary vote will not count. She will prevail even though right wing states like Iowa choose the nominees.

[DrToast]

30. I don't believe so

I think she would lose to Trump. I’d be very happy to be wrong on that.

[Mike Nelson]

32. The answer is obviously...

... YES. A woman and a Black man got more votes than anyone in history; a Black man and an intellectually challenged White Supremacist were elected. Anyone can win.

[Dawson Leery]

37. Yes.

[Tipperary]

39. Yes. nt

[DeminPennswoods]

41. No one thought Trump was "electable" until

he was.

[nbsmom]

42. Seems apropos

Link to tweet

?s=12

[Algernon Moncrieff]

43. Seeing Elizabeth Warren speak today confirmed something I already thought

At the outset: I don't consider myself a Warren supporter, and I've been critical (as have others) of her alliance with Republicans in the 90s and her comments and backtracking on Native American heritage.

...having said all of that

She is Hillary's equal in being a policy wonk with a plan for every problem. But I have to say that where Warren excels is converting those policy ideas into news-the-crowd-can-use on the stump. She sets lofty goals; explains how those goals can be achieved; explains the benefits of the goal; and picks goals most Americans would agree are worthy. She seems to be finding the sweet spot between Bernies loftiness and Hillary's practicality.

My take: I think she needs to talk more about her upbringing - the $50 a semester college in Texas; her time as a teacher; her mom working -- that's all good stuff. I'd also like to hear her talk about what drove her away from the Republican party of Bush and Reagan because, in that story, some of today's Republicans might also see a reason to leave.

[applegrove]

44. +1 i think she does best when talking about economic fairness and

how to acieve that. I'd like to hear more about her family life and what does her family tease her about. You get a strong sense of what it is like to be around Joe all his life.

[LAS14]

46. Well stated. Great line "news-the-crowd-can-use." Yours? nt

[Algernon Moncrieff]

49. I didn't coin the phrase, but I haven't heard anyone else use it in this context.

[elocs]

48. Given the election of Trump, I'm not sure how anyone could ask that question. n/t

[TSIAS]

50. Yes

She only loses if rich Democrats choose to vote for their self interest over what's best for the country.

My fear is that some Democrats would rather lose to Trump than win with someone who promises deep structural change to the political and economic establishment.

[lordsummerisle]

51. I don't know

She is not the most charismatic candidate and this concerns me some. But, like Hillary, she is eminently qualified. Her positions on many issues are very well thought out. Her policies want to level the playing field and I would hope that any average voter would see this and support her.

The country is overdue for a woman president and I would be proud to brag about her as my president to my international friends, unlike now where I don't even bring the subject up...

[customerserviceguy]

52. If she gets the nomination

we will consolidate around her. I expect that she's not going to engage in any personal attacks, but will defend her positions on the issues in ways that do not alienate supporters of other candidates.

It will be interesting to see how she handles personal attacks for the Native DNA thing, if that ever comes up in a debate.

[applegrove]

54. I wish she would make fun of herself more.

[questionseverything]

55. i think our strongest ticket would be warren/biden

woman are better multi taskers, I think her ideas excite more people especially the young

as vp biden would bring votes from the more conservative folks ( a big problem in 2016 was the vp brought in no extra votes)

[applegrove]

56. Or Biden/Warren. We have great choices.

[customerserviceguy]

61. If Joe Biden

isn't the top of the ticket, then he will not be on it at all.

[questionseverything]

66. i think joe biden cares more about his country than that

you are acting like biden is a spoiled child that would take his ball and go home if he wasn't picked first...I find that insulting to the former vp

[customerserviceguy]

68. There's a saying

"Always a bridesmaid, never a bride" that may apply here. Joe's already been second fiddle, if he can't gain the top spot, I certainly wouldn't blame him for getting out of politics for the rest of his life.

[questionseverything]

71. i guess i just think more of him than you do

I think he will try and do what is best for America

[customerserviceguy]

72. What he will do

that is best for America is to endorse the nominee wholeheartedly, and accept the fact that his time has passed. He would not want to wait for a two-term Democratic President to finish up that office, and hope for his own shot then.

I plan on voting for him in the SC primary if he's still viable by that point.

[TreasonousBastard]

57. Silly question-- of course she is. I usually try to ignore the automatic...

references to misogyny whenever the election of woman is discussed, but I think it my apply here.

The only reason one can doubt Warren's electability is her gender. Her likability, occasional pomposity, academic credentials, excessive planning, and other things mentioned rarely seem to imperil a male candidate.

After all, we elected Wilson, who spent a lot more time as president of Princeton than he did as governor of NJ. And Nixon, who was the least trusted or likable president until this one. Don't forget Ike, whose only government experience was beating Hitler, and that as an employee, although a rather extraordinary one.

Lately, we do seem to have a preference for ignorance in our leaders. I think it started with Reagan and we don't really trust politicians who seem smarter than we are. I agree that works against Warren, of course, since she's a lot smarter than most of us. But, if she can lay back bit, maybe no one will notice. Kinda like the way it was with Carter and the Clintons.

Personally, I think she's better off in the Senate, where she can work more closely with legislation, but she would be a fine president.

And she could win with the right campaign. It might be a bit more difficult for to win, since she is a woman and there will be some resistance, but I have no doubt she can.

Hillary did.

[SidDithers]

63. Yes. Next question?...nt

Sid

[oasis]

69. IMO, should E.W. soften her position on M4A, she'll rise. nt

[Gothmog]

70. Medicare for all polls badly

Link to tweet

THE MAIN TAKEAWAYS are that socialism, broadly speaking, is unpopular, but Republicans have work to do if they want to tarnish some key Democratic proposals. Once voters hear about the agenda as framed by Republicans, 61% say it is socialist. Calling Democrats’ policies “socialist” causes a 10-point drop in their popularity.

-- FOR EXAMPLE: Take ‘MEDICARE FOR ALL.’ When asked about supporting Medicare for All, and hearing it described as “guaranteed health care coverage regardless of … income, and every American’s health insurance would come from a single government-run plan,” 41% favor it, 55% oppose and 4% are unsure. When Republicans start describing it as causing “doctor shortages, longer wait times for urgent care and delays in access to the latest drugs for cancer and other serious diseases,” the numbers move to 34% favor and 60% oppose.

-- THE ‘GREEN NEW DEAL’ is actually above water when described as a plan that “would work to address climate change and income inequality, and transition the United States from an economy built on fossil fuels to one driven by clean energy.” 48% favor, 46% oppose and 7% are unsure.

IT SINKS when Republicans start describing it as potentially costing “93 trillion dollars” and hiking energy bills by $3,000. It goes then to 32% support and 61% oppose. Polling memo … Poll deck

[Gothmog]

73. NYT-Many Democrats Worried About Warren

I am in the camp that is worried about Warren https://politicalwire.com/2019/08/15/many-democrats-worried-about-warren/

New York Times: “Even as she demonstrates why she is a leading candidate for the party’s nomination, Ms. Warren is facing persistent questions and doubts about whether she would be able to defeat President Trump in the general election. The concerns, including from her admirers, reflect the head-versus-heart debate shaping a Democratic contest increasingly being fought over the meaning of electability and how to take on Mr. Trump.”

“Interviews with more than three dozen Democratic voters and activists in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina this summer, at events for Ms. Warren as well as other 2020 hopefuls, yield a similar array of concerns about her candidacy.”

[Gothmog]

74. Why Elizabeth Warren is Trump's Weakest Opponent

Last edited Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:36 AM - Edit history (1)

Link to tweet

Even if voters aren’t dwelling on policy specifics, their ideological perception of the candidates makes a huge difference. Democrats deliberately avoided invoking polarizing cultural issues when competing for swing districts last year—a strategy that allowed them to comfortably win back the House majority. The relative few who invoked a populist message like Warren’s lost winnable suburban seats.

It’s Politics 101: When there are more conservative (and moderate) voters than liberal ones, it’s very difficult to put together a winning coalition with just a progressive base. The only way to do it is by betting that Trump is so toxic that a critical majority of voters will automatically reject him. That strategy didn’t work well for Hillary Clinton in the last election.

Warren also carries other specific vulnerabilities into a matchup against Trump. She currently relies on a faction of white liberal support, struggling to win over African-American voters to her side. If Democrats believe the key to winning is by rallying their diverse base, it’s hard to see Warren accomplishing that goal. Her nomination threatens to be a double-whammy: turning off swing suburban voters without any gains in nonwhite voter turnout.

But make no mistake: They’re playing with fire. Trump is highly vulnerable, but he has the ability to win a second term if the Democratic nominee appears as extreme as he is. Warren has a realistic chance of becoming the next president, but she also could jeopardize it all for the Democratic Party.

[Bradshaw3]

78. I thought RW sources weren't allowed here

You might want to check out this guy before posting his drivel as a source. He blamed the rise of trump on Obama and his mother was a campaign officer for Herman Cain.

https://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/03/early-monday-smackdown-ezra-klein-on-the-execrable-josh-kraushaar-obamacare-didnt-pave-the-way-for-donald-trump-the-g.html

Boy, Biden supporters are getting desperate in their attacks on Warren. Says a lot.

[comradebillyboy]

75. She's getting more electable day by day. She's

definitely go the best run campaign so far.

[Gothmog]

76. Here is some interesting polling

Link to tweet

[Iggo]

77. Yes.

[Fiendish Thingy]

79. Whoever can inspire a significant increase in the youth vote is our best candidate

If the youth turnout increase significantly, WE WILL WIN.

"Safe", Status Quo candidates are more likely to decrease youth voter turnout, not inspire it.