The Pundit-Defying Idiosyncrasies of Iowa Voters (or how a Biden to Warren migration happens there)

[BeyondGeography]

They don’t vote for “moderates” or “progressives.” They vote for people.

On Friday, Julie Allen, a 62-year-old Medicaid consultant, took time off work to sit in the scorching sun at a midday, open-air rally for Joe Biden in Boone, Iowa. In 2016, she told me, she was “all in” for Bernie Sanders, but she now feels “he’s past his time,” and as she considers her choices for the February caucuses, he’s no longer in her top five. Instead, she’s weighing Biden, whom she supported in 2008, as well as Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana. She liked the idea of a Biden-Warren ticket, or maybe even a Warren-Biden one, since he already knows how to do the job of vice president. “There’s all these comparisons between how Warren and Bernie are so much alike,” she said. “I really think Warren and Biden are much more alike.”

This surprised me, since Warren and Biden are so far apart ideologically. But over the course of a frenetic campaign weekend in Iowa, when most of the Democratic field descended on the state, I heard the comparison more than once. Waiting to see Warren speak at the Iowa State Fair, I met Janice Martins and Kay Havenstrite, Democrats from rural farming families that, they said, have been devastated by Donald Trump’s tariffs. Both were torn between Warren and Biden. “They have a lot of differences, but there’s a lot of similarities as well,” said Martins, 49, pointing out the various ways that Biden has moved left in recent years.

After watching Biden and Warren campaign in Iowa, I think I understand why some people group them together. Both candidates are folksy, white and in their seventies. Both speak of the searing childhood experience of seeing their fathers lose their jobs, and both make economic security for the middle class central to their stump speeches. They are sincere and unscripted and have the comforting aspect of benevolent parents. Talking to voters who admire both of them, I realized, not for the first time, how little the ideological lanes that we talk about in punditland really mean.

...Ultimately, this is why I suspect Biden will fade in Iowa, despite many polls showing him ahead right now. As people see more of him, at least some are beginning to become alarmed about his pronounced verbal sloppiness. McAdams was one of the few I spoke to who worried about Warren’s electability, but she also seemed livid about Biden’s repeated gaffes. These included his recent statement that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids,” and the claim that he met survivors of the Parkland shooting when he was vice president, although the massacre took place last year.

“I am just ready to turn the other way and never turn back,” McAdams said. “You don’t get to continue to make all of those gaffes. At some point that’s got to stop.” She suspects that his front-runner status isn’t durable, at least in Iowa: “I think the big lead that he has in the polls is just his name recognition.” If she’s right, there’s no reason to think Biden supporters will flock to another moderate. A recent poll of Democratic voters in the states with the earliest primaries showed that a plurality of Biden supporters — 24 percent — say that Sanders is their second choice, followed by Warren, with 20 percent.

More at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/opinion/biden-warren-2020-iowa.html

[Merlot]

1. I don't think it's an age thing.

Biden has been making those "sloppy" mistakes his whole political career. Warren hasen't, and neither has Bernie. Setting aside age and policy, I think Warren will be the winner of any migration from Biden.

[Princetonian]

2. Wow... is this the 6th or 7th OP in a row where you highlight Joe's malapropisms, BeyondGeography?

Link to tweet

[BeyondGeography]

3. The article is really more about other issues

But I understand why that’s a sensitive point.

[Princetonian]

4. It's not a "sensitive point" for Joe. It's a "sensitive point" for ME - I dislike your MO.

Joe actually doesn't give a shit. He's seen it all.

Link to tweet

[BeyondGeography]

5. My MO?

The article is a much-needed antidote to the “Warren and Sanders are splitting the same vote and nothing more” spiel that we are inundated with here. Sorry if it includes some difficult realities about your candidate.

[Princetonian]

7. "Sorry if it includes some difficult realities about your candidate." What are they? Tell me.

Besides the fact he is the target of ageist bigotry.

Link to tweet

[Thekaspervote]

13. No, it doesn't include difficulties and "realities" about mr.biden

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287237414

Just briefly for that choose not to open the link.. this is a poll by morning consult dated 8/12/2019

Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

[BeyondGeography]

15. Thanks for reinforcing the point...people are overthinking ideological "lanes"

Last edited Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:23 PM - Edit history (1)

Especially if they’re spending too much time on politics. How many Biden supporters on this board have Sanders as their second choice? We have people here who think Bernie and Elizabeth should just decide right now who gets to continue with the far left left prog vote and the other one calls it a day. Think again folks.

[Thekaspervote]

16. Agree.. I see sooo much of that. To me, everyone everything posted should end with "I will

Vote for our nominee regardless.”

[SharonClark]

17. That's how I read the article as well.

You're doing a good job responding to some uncivil accusations about your "MO".

[BeyondGeography]

18. Thank you

[highplainsdem]

6. Goldberg doesn't get it. There are three basic reasons people vote for people over policies when

deciding which candidate to vote for.

1) They're ALL Democrats (well, Bernie is temporarily sort of a Democrat), which means that they are all basically in favor of the same policy goals.

2) No matter who the presidential nominee is, it's CONGRESS that has to pass the legislation. As I discovered when I posted a poll asking how many here thought Congress would be able to pass Medicare For All assuming Warren or Sanders was elected president, the vast majority of the liberal Democrats here thought that wouldn't happen.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287226281

3) No matter what a candidate's policy positions are, the most important challenge facing that candidate is LEADING THE COUNTRY, both domestically and on the world stage.

Which is why, as appealing as some of Marianne Williamson's policy ideas are to many Dems, she's going nowhere in the polls.

All the polls I've seen about voters' choices in the primary that also asked which candidate voters thought would be the best leader showed Biden well ahead of his rivals.

That belief is a large factor in why he's ahead in the primary-preference polls. It isn't just that people consider him most electable.

[Hortensis]

8. Opinion piece hit job.

[BeyondGeography]

9. So a lot of Iowans aren't going to be choosing between Biden and Warren?

And if so their judgments will be purely ideological?

Ok.

[Hortensis]

11. You should know how to recognize hit pieces by now.

That Iowans will be choosing among them all is just a vehicle for the hit. Note that Sanders is smacked in passing, but he's not the main target.

[BeyondGeography]

12. The "hit" is that many Iowans think Warren and Biden have a lot in common

and won’t have a difficult time choosing either one, despite their policy differences. The dynamic is more pronounced than people on this board and in pundit-land would probably think. Ouch? What am I missing here? Oh, right, the reason why they might switch is included in the piece.

[emulatorloo]

14. They do have a lot in common. Character and integrity.

[Hortensis]

19. :) This! I'll add that they have ideology in common.

They share the same principles and end goals, differing significantly (sometimes) only on how to get there, and how fast. They both believe in the Democratic Party and in using the huge power of the established government of the people to serve the people.

And of course they could work together very well if they decided to. People who have good character, integrity and ideology in common are always able to. In 2016, Warren was very interested in becoming Biden to Hillary's Obama.

[emulatorloo]

10. Yay! Another hit piece op-Ed that insinuates Biden is mentally defective.

Glad you find all of these, thanks for posting yet another one.

Warren and Biden are my top two. I am proud of both of them, and I can guarantee you Warren won’t be making dishonest insinuations about Biden. That’s not how she operates.

[Peacetrain]

20. As an Iowan... whew that is off the cliff wrong.. we like E. Warren and K, Harris

really everyone,,But we are behind J. Biden because we trust him to do the job,, and gaffes come with the territory .. and have for forty years..