8/13 Gravis NH poll: 5 Dems beat Trump: Biden +13, Sanders +10, Buttigieg +7, Warren +5, Harris +3

[highplainsdem]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll/ar-AAFKDdK?li=BBnbcA1


This is the same poll that's the subject of another OP here, because it's a rare poll showing Sanders ahead of Biden, 21% to 15%.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287238579

But even though the Dems polled in this C+ rated (by FiveThirtyEight) poll preferred Sanders, the overall electorate gave Biden a significantly wider margin of victory over Trump:

Sanders is followed by former Vice President Joe Biden with 15 percent and by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at 12 percent.

-snip-

The Gravis poll found South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) rounding out the top five, with 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively.

The poll also found President Trump losing to every candidate in the top five in the Granite State in a hypothetical match-up among registered voters, with Biden beating him 53 percent to 40 percent and Sanders beating him 51 percent to 41 percent.

Warren, meanwhile, leads Trump 49 percent to 44 percent, while Buttigieg beats him 49 percent to 42 percent and Harris leads him 47 percent to 44 percent. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton beat Trump by fewer than 0.5 points in the 2016 presidential election.

The poll for the general questions on Trump was conducted through a random survey of 505 individuals in New Hampshire and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Emphasis added.

Btw, this poll of various Democratic candidates versus Trump is the more accurante part of the poll. The primary poll that shows Sanders ahead was of an online panel of cell phone users and had a MOE of 6.2%.

As noted in the article, Sanders won the NH primary in 2016.

[crazytown]

1. The same survey that polled Warren as 9% ?

EDIT: Scrub that - I was confusing Gravis with the HarrisX survey.

[highplainsdem]

2. Not quite the same survey. Different method of polling, different margin of error, as I noted in my

revised OP.

[crazytown]

3. You beat me to my correction !

[highplainsdem]

4. Sorry I didn't get my OP right the first time. I'm trying to cook dinner and type in different

rooms, which can get a bit hectic.

[Skya Rhen]

5. There appears to be no clear second and third place holder, where polling is concerned. Warren and

Sanders take turns either being in second or third place which, I can imagine, is quite disconcerting for them. Hopefully, a clear second and third place holder will soon materialize, in order to provide clarity.

[crazytown]

7. Every week the HarrisX survey polls Warren in single figures

while Morning Consult polls Sanders at 19% (+/- 1%). That largely accounts for the close second and third, to Warren's detriment.

[thesquanderer]

6. Slightly misleading headline. It's very possible that more than 5 Dems beat Trump, because...

...the poll only asked about those five. Yes, they all beat Trump, but if they had asked about more than just the 5 leading candidates, it's possible that some of those could have beaten Trump as well.

[crazytown]

8. The results for Beto would have been interesting

given his prominent public profile recently.

[thesquanderer]

12. The problem is, they write the later questions before seeing the results of the earlier questions.

They were prepared to ask about Biden/Sanders/Warren/Harris/Buttigieg (vs. Trump) because of their known past high polling, but in fact, in this particular poll, while those were indeed the top 5, Gabbard came in 6th at only two percentage points behind Harris and three behind Buttigieg (while Klobuchar, Yang, and surprisingly Steyer were not too far behind Gabbard). If they had known that these other candidates would come in that close to some of the top five, maybe they would have decided to ask how they'd do against Trump as well.

As for Beto, he didn't do that well overall. Here's the full results:

[crazytown]

13. AFAIK this is the first and only poll showing Sanders in front

since Biden announced.

[thesquanderer]

14. I think you're right. We'll have to wait to see if it's a trend or an outlier.

But if I were BS, I don't think I'd be popping any champagne just yet.

[crazytown]

15. Glass half full

well, it's better to be ahead in one poll, than none.

[highplainsdem]

17. There may have been one or two others, minor low-rated polls. But Biden's actually led ALL YEAR,

including months before he announced, according to RCP.

I have seen Sanders supporters claim Sanders was still the front-runner early in the year, since Biden wasn't officially in the race. But the polls still included Biden's name and he was ahead.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. Love them all but single digits should drop out by EOY

[highplainsdem]

9. Didn't have enough room in the subject line to say that possibly more could have beaten Trump if

the poll had asked about that. It was difficult just fitting the five names in.

[thesquanderer]

10. No worries, just wanted to get "at least 5" out there, not intended as criticism. ;-) n/t

[rocktivity]

11. Well, Sanders is a "local." But though NH is only one state

and one of ten least populated, it's the four cheatproof margins of victory (4% and up) that are most encouraging.


rocktivity

[highplainsdem]

16. Agree that it's encouraging that several Democratic candidates beat Trump in this poll.

[Cha]

19. KR!!!