Sanders campaign boss expects candidate to win New Hampshire

[TexasTowelie]

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- The campaign manager for Bernie Sanders says New Hampshire is a critical presidential primary state he expects Sanders to win, but he's leaving room for a scenario in which Sanders falls short.

Faiz Shakir said Thursday that he doesn't "like the language of must-win," though he does believe it is an important early voting state.

But he says he still believes Sanders could win the Democratic nomination without taking New Hampshire, though he acknowledges that the path "gets harder" if Sanders doesn't.

Sanders represents neighboring Vermont in the U.S. Senate. He carried New Hampshire by 22 points in the race for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, which Hillary Clinton went on to clinch.

Read more: https://www.macon.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article234284562.html

[mcar]

1. I would think that NH is a must win for Sanders

[LiberalFighter]

2. How much of a loss would be acceptable?

Wouldn't a win of less than 22 points be bad?

In some cases, and think it applies here, Sanders was an unknown on the national stage in his first campaign. Now after his campaign, people know him better and that could work against him. If he had the same type of support back in 2016 wouldn't he be doing better?

[George II]

4. He wasn't an unknown in New Hampshire, though.

[LiberalFighter]

6. True. But they knew a lot less about him back then compared to now.

[George II]

7. Knowing more about him is a double-edge sword.

[LiberalFighter]

9. Yep

[George II]

3. If he doesn't he's in trouble, but he will be anyway.

So let's look at the RCP averages as of today in the early states. Not accounting for minor variations in various districts, here's how the delegates break down

Iowa:

Biden 26.0%
Warren 18.0
Sanders 14.0
Harris 13.5

Biden gets 24 delegates, Warren 17, others 0

New Hampshire:

Biden 21.0%
Warren 14.7
Sanders 19.3
Harris 9.0

Biden gets 13 delegates, Sanders gets 11, others 0

Nevada:

Biden 30.0%
Warren 15.3
Sanders 15.3
Harris 8.7

Biden gets 18 delegates, Warren gets 4, Sanders gets 9, Harris 0

South Carolina:

Biden 38.0%
Warren 12.7
Sanders 14.3
Harris 12.0

Biden gets 54 delegates, others 0

Net result in the early states:

Biden 109 delegates
Warren 21 delegates
Sanders 20 delegates
Harris 0 delegates

[TexasTowelie]

5. If it works out that way, then Biden the election may end on Super Tuesday.

Biden should do well in the southern states and hold his own with California and Texas.

[LiberalFighter]

8. It all depends on what happens between now and then.

I don't expect it to vary much with what George II has.