In the increasingly likely event that none of the candidates gets 50% of delegates

[pnwmom]

Last edited Wed Aug 28, 2019, 01:15 AM - Edit history (1)

in the first ballot at the convention, then the superdelegates weigh in during the second round of voting. Why would Bernie -- or anyone else who is not part of the "establishment" -- think that the "establishment" would choose him as the person for Democrats to unite behind?

ON UPDATE: There is a key difference between 2020 and past conventions: the superdelegates won't have a vote during the primaries. In the past they could help a "consensus" candidate reach the required 50% during the primaries. That won't happen this time around. If one of the candidates never makes it to the 50% mark, then the decision won't be made till the convention, in a vote involving all the delegates, including the superdelegates.

[Hoyt]

1. Probably not, but his supporters might help trump just like 2016.

[NurseJackie]

28. Many people think the same as you.

[wasupaloopa]

2. I got s text from the Bernie campaign yesterday.

I told them that I was a Hillary supporter and that I doubt Bernie will get any help from Hillary supporters.

[comradebillyboy]

6. I also got an unwealcome solicitation from the Sanders campaign and

as a person who enthusiastically supported Hillary in 2016 I suggested that they look elsewhere for support.

[pnwmom]

8. I agree. Since Hillary won by 4 million last time, how do they think they'll get millions

of Hillary voters to like him more than any of the others?

[Gothmog]

29. In addition, there will be fewer caucuses this cycle

Fewer caucuses will make the process more representative of the will of the voters.

[msongs]

3. perhaps premature speculation a year out nt

[First Speaker]

4. There will be a first-ballot nominee...

...there's always talk like this a year in advance. It never happens, and it won't this time.

[pnwmom]

11. What is different this time is that the superdelegates won't be voting during the primaries.

How do you think one candidate usually got to 50%? Because of the votes of the superdelegates. Now they won't be voting till round 2 of the convention.

[Recursion]

14. Superdelegates didn't vote during the primaries in the past, you know

They might announce their support during the primaries, but they can do that today, too

[Hortensis]

33. As Recursion says. One candidate almost always gets 50%

by coming to stand out, so that over time more and more support starts coalesching around him or her.

You know, as Democratic voters decide who they want.

Brokered conventions almost never happen, and talk of one is mostly just a wistful dream of people supporting less popular candidates and of course venal media. (But if the talk should alarm more people into voting for the candidate who's already leading to block potential trouble, fine. Those'll tend to be just switching their second choice to first.)

And the superdelegates have only once used their special power. They chose for the candidate who won the popular vote, over the one who got a few more delegates, specifically because that candidate was the choice of the majority. In other words, they used their power responsibly and as it was intended to be.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

5. Why in the world, months before any primaries have actually been held

would you say this?

I have noticed that every single election cycle people seem to salivate over the prospect of a brokered convention. It won't happen. Probably at least half of the contenders will drop out no later than the second primary. And someone will emerge as the one with the delegate count to get the nomination.

The last Democratic convention that went more than one ballot was 1952. For the Republicans, it was 1948.

[pnwmom]

9. Bernie is just wasting his time and his donors' money. He's not going to get millions of

Hillary voters to choose him this time around --which he would need in order to win 50+ % of the vote.

And he's not going to win in a brokered convention either.

[thesquanderer]

18. If for any reason Biden drops out, polling shows more of his supporters going to Sanders...

...then to anyone else. And he's often starting from a position of second place to begin with. So he would almost certainly be the frontrunner, probably by a good margin over anyone except Warren. (Of course, that's today, and things change.)

So maybe you're right that he can't get 50%... but he arguably has a better shot at it than anyone else (except Biden). And if no one gets to 50% and it's a brokered convention, don't you think there would be a lot of pressure to nominate the person who came in with the most votes?

So if you think he's wasting his time and donor's money, why not say that about everyone else, since they're in even weaker positions than he is?

[pnwmom]

20. If he went to a brokered convention with 45% of the votes, that means that 55%

didn't want him. I think they'd go for a "consensus " candidate instead, not someone who has made a lifetime of holding himself above and apart from Democrats (and is already legally registered to run as an Independent for the Senate.)

And I can't imagine him getting more than that, because I can't imagine Hillary voters preferring him to the others.

[Recursion]

15. We had some seriously unwise convention rule changes this time around

There's a reason the entire CBC opposed the rules change, and it's because of the potential for chaos in a 2nd round

[comradebillyboy]

7. The first convention I paid any attention to was in 1960 when Kennedy

was nominated. If I recall correctly he was nominated on the first ballot. I don't recall any 'brokered' conventions since then. I don't expect one in 2020 either. It's a Sanders campaign fantasy.

[pnwmom]

10. This is the first convention where superdelegates won't be weighing in DURING

the primaries. In the past, they could make sure that someone reached the 50% mark.

Now, they won't be able to do that till the convention itself.

[comradebillyboy]

12. I don't recall any convention where superdelgates overruled

the popular vote. If there were no superdelegates in 2016 Hillary still would have beaten Sanders easily.

[pnwmom]

13. Yes, SHE would have, because she won by 4 million votes.

But some elections have been closer than that, and this one certainly could be.

[Recursion]

16. Why do you say the superdelegates won't weigh in during the primaries? There's not a gag rule

They'll still weigh in, and the media will still count them

[pnwmom]

17. Their votes AS DELEGATES won't be counted till Round 2 of voting.

There's no gag rule. But that's not what I'm talking about.

In the past, superdelegates cast their votes in Round 1, on an equal basis with all the other delegates (and announced them long before then).

Now, supers will only vote as delegates if a candidate doesn't have 50+% in Round 1.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

19. Right. Despite predictions every single election cycle

that we'll have a brokered convention, it just doesn't happen. And won't this time around.

And the last time the Dems didn't nominate on the first ballot was 1952.

[pnwmom]

21. This year is nothing like previous election cycles because superdelegates won't be voting in the

first round. Before, their votes could be used to make sure someone went over the 50% mark in the first round.

Without the 50%, we're in a brokered convention.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

22. Every year is different.

Or that's what they always say.

More to the point, are the superdelegates the only reason Hillary got the nomination? Without them, would Bernie have gotten it?

[pnwmom]

23. No, because Hillary won by 4 million votes. Not all primaries are that lopsided. n/t

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

24. So she had enough delegates to win the nomination

without the superdelegates, right?

Then why are some people so ominously predicting this year we'll have a brokered convention? I just don't get it.

[pnwmom]

25. I can't see Sanders getting more than the amount he got last time, because

millions of Hillary voters will prefer to vote for someone else. So if he's the one with the highest vote count, it will only be a plurality, and we'll end up with a brokered convention.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

35. Sanders is not going to be in the running this year.

Not really.

I was a huge Sanders supporter last time. I'm still sorry he didn't get the nomination. But I am totally not supporting him this time.

For one thing, he's too old. I was concerned about his age in '16 but overcame my reservations. This time I do NOT want a man nearly 80 running for President. Likewise, I think Biden is too old. I know, anytime anyone here suggests that septuagenarians running for President are not The Best Idea Ever we are accused of being ageist. I'm 71 myself. I just think it's a huge mistake to go backwards and run or elect older and older people each cycle.

Elizabeth Warren has just turned 70. She looks, sounds, and acts like someone at least a decade younger. Plus she has the advantage of being a female, meaning she'll probably live a heck of a lot longer.

And we are some months away from the first primary, so declaring a front-runner, or saying someone has the nomination in the bag or (the other extreme) it will be a brokered convention, all those have no basis in reality at this point. Any of us might make a lucky guess, but that's all it would be. A guess.

[pnwmom]

36. I agree with you. The main question is how long he will keep campaigning

even though it has been clear almost from the outset that he couldn't win.

I have a number of friends and family like you -- who supported him before but not this time around. But I don't know any Hillary supporters who like Bernie this time. So I think he'll end up with fewer voters in the primary this time than last time.

[Gothmog]

26. The 15% rule may help give one candidate a majority

First, the 15% rule help. A candidate gets no delegates unless they break the 15% threshold either statewide or in a particular district. The delegates will be allocated among candidates who broke the 15% threshold. I still believe that it is very probable that either Biden will break 50% or get close.

Second, all delegates including pledged delegates are able to change their vote. Campaign will carefully vet their delegates and can remove and replace a delegate prior to the start of the convention. However delegates from candidates who are not in contention may vote for the candidate of their choice. I suspect that deals will be cut for candidates who are out of contention to instruct their delegates to vote for the front runner.

Super delegates will come into play only on a second ballot.

[pnwmom]

27. Aren't pledged delegates pledged to vote for their candidate in the first round?

Otherwise, what is the pledge about?

[Gothmog]

31. I was a Clinton delegate to the National Convention in Philadelphia

I was carefully vetted by the Clinton campaign and I helped to vet other delegates. Pledged delegates can vote for who every they want. The campaigns have absolute approval rights over their delegates and can remove and replace a delegate prior to the start of the convention.

[pnwmom]

32. So what is a pledged delegate? n/t

[Gothmog]

34. As part of the selection process, I promised to vote for Clinton

That was a non-binding promise and I could have changed my vote. Remember that at the end sanders had his delegates vote for Clinton. The campaigns control for this by carefully vetting the delegates. Most pledged delegates are hard core party times who have worked inside the party for a long time. I had a two page resume that I sent to the convention delegates in my senate district outlying all of the work that I had done for the party and the Clinton campaign as part of the selection process. If a pledged delegate changed their vote, this would be noticed by the party and such person would not be trusted for future roles in the party.

[underpants]

30. I doubt it. Marianne will have it wrapped up before the convention

and we can begin the work of aligning the nation’s chakras.