Monmouth Polling Institute: "Oops..."

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[DrToast]

1. Huh? I see no "oops"

Jeez....even after the poll people are still misrepresenting them.

[George II]

9. The last two sentences of the first paragraph.

[Autumn]

2. What is the Oops? nt

[NYMinute]

3. Biden PLUMMETS OMG ... oops ... no he doesn't

[brooklynite]

4. The ACTUAL "oops" (not mentioned in the letter) was an extremely small polling sample...

...which exacerbated the irrational findings.

[Autumn]

6. Are all their samples small? It says there were no significant differences for this group

and the voter subsample was nearly identical to their other polls. Not that it matters, at this time polls mean nothing.

[bluewater]

8. "the irrational findings."

So, a poll that showed Biden getting 19% support is an "irrational finding"?

Or is your response an example of conformational bias, the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories?

I think the latter. People's expectation that Biden must continue to have at least 30% support is so strong, that they ignore any evidence to the contrary.

Is this Monmouth poll really THAT much of an outlier, having Biden at 19% support? No, not really -- unless one chooses to ignore several other recent polls showing Biden's support in the low 20% range.

Consider these recent polls showing Biden's support:

Aug 24-27, 2019 B rated YouGov 570 LV 24%

Aug 17-20, 2019 B YouGov 559 LV 22%

Aug 10-13, 2019 B YouGov 592 LV 21%

Aug 4-7, 2019 C+ HarrisX 1,319 RV 25%

Aug 3-6, 2019 B YouGov 573 LV 22%

Aug 1-5, 2019 B+ Ipsos 1,023 RV 25%

Aug 1-5, 2019 B+ Ipsos 1,258 A 22%

Aug 2-4, 2019 C+ Change Research 1,450 LV 23%

That's EIGHT polls from FOUR different Pollsters just in AUGUST that show Biden's support not that different than the 19% he got in the Monmouth poll.

So are we to ignore 8 polls this month, 9 polls counting Monmouth, because they are ALL outliers? Or are we to think that the polling landscape is not as stable as some people would like to think?

[George II]

10. It would be interesting to see the numbers for each of the other three or four top candidates.....

....that would show if this was in line with other polls.

[SCVDem]

5. Outliers happen.

More troubling was all the doom and gloom which was heaped on VP Biden.

I get it. You like Sanders or Warren. Maybe Harris, but so many in the MSM, looking at you Kornacki and Toad, just had sheer delight in Biden's apparent slip.

One poll, one time.

I really wish some of us would lighten up on self-destruction and keep your negatives to yourselves!

If X is not your choice, why are you commenting on X? Chances are it will not be a positive so do you really want to go that way?

Take a Xanax and chill!

[crazytown]

7. Aug 8, 2019 ?

Oops is right.