* NEW * B+ Michigan Poll - Matchup vs Trump: Biden (+10); Warren (+6); Sanders (+4); Harris (+3)

[Skya Rhen]

Biden 51%...…..Trump 41%
Warren 49%.....Trump 43%
Sanders 48%....Trump 44%
Harris 46%...…. Trump 43%


https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/

[qazplm135]

1. so this kills the idea

that only one of our candidates can beat Trump in "rust belt states" yes?

[Skya Rhen]

3. I am a strong believer in the "most electable" candidate. I don't believe in taking chances

with narrower leads.

I prefer the candidate holding the widest lead, when it comes to a matchup vs Trump, as voter suppression and Russian interference need to be factored in.

But maybe that's just me...

[Thekaspervote]

5. Agree..gotta go with our best chance

[qazplm135]

6. so you think general election polling

over a year out tells you down to a percentage point what the margins are going to be so that you can figure out "the most electable candidate?"

Interesting.

But it's progress at least, we've moved from only Biden can win these states to Biden is most likely to win these states.

[mr_liberal]

8. Its beyond that. Most voters don't know what the candidates are proposing.

You have to be able to project into the GE when they'd come under attack.

Bidens more centrist policies would hold up better imo. Warren and Sanders numbers would tank once voters found out what they actually want to do: get rid of private insurance, raise taxes, etc.... Someone like Harris, who is more pragmatic, may actually hold up better in the GE than Sanders even though it doesn't show that in this poll.

And barring a recession, Sanders and Warren would lose because they are too far left, I don't care what these polls say.

[LincolnRossiter]

7. Sure. But I'm a lot more comfortable with a 10-point lead than a 3 or 4-point lead.

Just saying. The stakes are too high for a squeaker.

[qazplm135]

9. of course

there's no way to know over a year out that's it's precisely a 10 pt lead or a 4 pt lead now is there?

Maybe it's 7 pt lead and a 6 pt lead?

You have no idea who will ultimately end up a full year plus from now with the best chance unless you are telling me you can see the future and nothing will happen to affect any of the candidate's GE chances for the better or worse.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. No. If anything, this reinforces the idea...

The margins in this poll are pretty close once you get outside Biden-Trump. When margins are close, as we saw in 2016, any type of shift can be devastating.

The final RCP poll average in Michigan for 2016 was:

Clinton 47
Trump 43.4

There was generally one constant with Hillary's lead in Michigan - she didn't eclipse 50% in most polls - especially the final week of the campaign. You take those two averages (47+43.4) and you get 90.4% - which meant, on the whole, there was an average of 10% who was either voting third party or hadn't decided.

Trump won Michigan with 47.3% to Hillary's 47%.

What happened? Hillary's support stayed the exact same - but Trump's support grew as he picked up most the undecided voters. The margins were so close (3.6) in an average of the final polls, that it allowed him to barely win the state.

Looking at this poll, only one candidate is above 50% - Biden. In fact, in the last three Michigan polls, Biden has topped Trump with 54, 53 and 51%. In those same polls, Warren has topped Trump once by 50+% - back in March. In the most two recent polls, she's been at 47 and 49%. Bernie has done a bit better, eclipsing 50% in two polls but not in this poll.

Margins are important. The one constant, above anything, is that Biden not only beats Trump - he does so handily.

[Thekaspervote]

11. Thx for the informative breakdown!

[oasis]

13. Take no chances. nt

[bluewater]

2. YAY! Four top Democrats ALL beat Trump in a Rust Belt state!

[guillaumeb]

4. With a +/- of 4%,

this is still too close. But one hopes that as the mass of voters pays more attention, Trump's numbers will fall even further.

[Cha]

12. KR!!!