Interesting (?) YN Analytics UTAH poll vs Trump: Booker +12, Biden tied, Warren -3, Harris -15

[highplainsdem]

I have to admit I blinked and read the numbers a couple of times when I saw them at FiveThirtyEight this evening.

Btw, Sanders is the only other Democratic candidate who beats Trump (by 6 points) in this very unusual poll where Booker does 12 points better than Biden, 15 points better than Warren, and 27 (!!!) points better than Harris.

Talk about outliers...

https://www.utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/21444-trump-at-40-support-in-utah-ahead-of-2020-vote-trails-democrats-booker-and-sanders-tied-with-warren-and-biden-in-head-to-head-matchup

Kelly Patterson of Y2 Analytics says Trump’s struggles against some of the Democratic hopefuls is a function of how well known those opponents are to voters.

“Preferences for the Democratic candidates are not well-formed and grounded,” he said. “This is especially true in a state where there are not many Democrats and nobody knows who the nominee will be and they don’t know much about the candidates. You can see this by people peeling off and choosing a third-party candidate, which is a ‘catchall’ category for individuals who may not like the choices or who may know little right now about the candidates.”

This is actually a B-rated poll. I don't think poll results like this are why they have a good rating.

FWIW, the good news from this poll is that Trump never did better than 48% against any of our candidates.

The not-so-good news is that a fairly high percentage -- 10 to 20 % -- said they would vote third party rather than vote for either Trump or any of the top Democratic candidates.

This was an online poll of registered voters in Utah who were sent up to three invitations.

https://www.utpoliticaltrends.com/methodology

The first link given above for the poll says they polled 1,017 registered voters, and the poll was done between July 31 and August 6, nearly a month ago.

Does anyone have ANY idea if Cory Booker would be much more popular in Utah than our other candidates are?

Did he say anything about Utah during the second debate? (If so, I don't remember.)

Btw, Sanders did win the 2016 Utah caucuses by a wide margin over HRC, beating her by nearly 60 points, though polling in the state showed him with a lead of 10 or 12 points. (That sort of result is why I don't think caucuses are representative of the electorate.)

I've been skimming Twitter responses to the poll, and they're mostly amused and skeptical.

[redstateblues]

1. Only if he's a Mormon

[Thekaspervote]

2. Utah.... plays by an entirely different set of rules than the rest of the nation

[Cha]

3. Sounds like the Twilight Zone

poll there in Utah.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. I'm from Utah - the polls that Utah Policy puts out are always so fissssshy.

Their recent polling for the mayoral race was way off. The one they had pegged winning (Jim Dabakis) came in third. I don't believe this poll. I do not think any Democrat will carry Utah.

[kurtcagle]

5. I'd chalk it up to margin of error

The methodology has a pretty low sample, so the MOE is likely fairly high in general.

I actually think that third party works for the Dems in this particular case, not only in the presidential race but down-ticket as well. That there are this many considering a third party to me indicates that a lot of people are unhappy enough with Trump that even the percentages he is getting are soft. This is Utah, after all.