The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years.

[bluewater]

In a politically divided nation, with attitudes among many voters hardened and resistant to changing, the 2020 general election could be contested on the narrowest electoral terrain in recent memory.

Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in 2020. Each flipped to the Republicans in 2016, but President Trump won each by only a percentage point or less. The four are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida. Many analysts point to Wisconsin as the single state upon which the election could turn.

Shifting demographics, the growing urban-rural divide and the gap between white voters with and without college educations have helped to create an electoral map unlike those of the recent past. So too have Trump’s unique profile, messaging and appeal.
“Because of the partisanship of the country and the partisanship of the president, we are now looking at the smallest map in modern political history,” said Jim Messina, who was the campaign manager for former president Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign.

Both Trump’s campaign and that of his eventual Democratic challenger will seek to put other states in play. But those opportunities are fewer than in past campaigns.

Trump has done nothing to expand his base while in office, which Democrats claim will make it extremely difficult for him to win states he lost in 2016. Trump campaign officials disagree. Democrats’ aspirations for expansion rest in part on whether politically changing, Republican-held states such as North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona are truly ready to shift.

Current polling nationally and in some of the key states shows the president vulnerable when matched against several of the Democratic presidential candidates — though he overcame weak approval and favorability ratings to win the 2016 election. Based on current attitudes, he will have to do so again to win reelection.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-2020-electoral-map-could-be-the-smallest-in-years-heres-why/2019/08/31/61d4bc9a-c9a9-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html

[LincolnRossiter]

1. I think Democrats actually stand a good chance of contesting Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

I think the map could be as open as 2008–especially with Biden.

[LongtimeAZDem]

2. I think Biden may have a chance here, but I wouldn't put a large bet on it

[JI7]

4. and Texas

[elocs]

3. The 2020 presidential race is the Democrats' to lose.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was so confident of winning Wisconsin that she never visited here once (did the Russians make her not campaign here in the general election?).
I'm betting that won't happen in this next election.

[highplainsdem]

5. Dem strategist and Obama adviser Steve Schale: Biden leads Trump in all 4 states, plus Ohio

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