Nate Silver (of FiveThirtyEight) doesn't buy that crowd sizes tell us much about who's going to win.

[Skya Rhen]

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Cha]

1. KR.. he must have his

reasons.

[Eliot Rosewater]

2. Maybe. I think what is new is what happened in 2018 and I dont think this has

any negative connotations for any of our candidates.

Did you see the woman on O'Donnell, twice now I think, who studies this and said the reason we won so big in 2018 was NOT middle of the road cons voting for dems but people who dont vote, voting and voting AGAINST the pile of filth in the WH (pile of filth is mine, not hers)

Point being any and all of our candidates may see a surge of people in person and at the polls for a reason we have never seen before.

My fear is putin knows this, he knows whether it is Joe or Kamala,, Elizabeth, whoever it is his puppet cant win. Thus the KGB is actively hacking the system now, I fear.

[Demsrule86]

7. Moderates won regardless. Progressives want to believe this.

Who doesn't? But I don't believe it is true.

[DownriverDem]

16. I wish folks

would focus on beating trump. If they did, they would know that Biden has wide support. Biden running with a strong, progressive, Dem woman would be a strong ticket. We don't have time for taking a chance.

[brooklynite]

3. Howard Dean 2004, Bernie Sanders 2012

[crazytown]

8. Dean's biggest rally was 8,000 - Seattle 2003

Bernies biggest 2015 rally was 11,000 - Phoenix, July.

[Celerity]

15. you are way off on your numbers (not that I put much stock into crowd sizes)

These are just a few instances
'

Estimated 20,000 people attend Bernie Sanders rally in Oakland

https://abc7news.com/politics/estimated-20000-people-attend-bernie-sanders-rally-in-oakland/1362730/


August 2015 in Portland

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/10/politics/bernie-sanders-portland-rally-19000-2016/index.html

According to Michael Lewellen, vice president of corporate communications for the arena, there were over 19,000 people in the arena and an estimated 9,000 people who lined up outside but were unable to get in. Lewellen said a total of 28,000 people tried to attend the event.

March 26, 2016 Seattle (the 'bird' rally)

https://web.archive.org/web/20160805115421/http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-seattle-rally-media/

As of this writing, there are still between 8,000 and 10,000 Sanders supporters waiting to get through the Secret Service’s rigorous security process, while 20,000 have already filled most of the lower bowl of Safeco Field. By the time the last Sanders supporter has gone through security, the crowd will easily be one of the largest of the campaign season, possibly surpassing Sanders’ previous 28,000-person record set at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. Tonight’s crowd might even eclipse Donald Trump’s 30,000-person rally in Mobile, Alabama in 2015.

Much more on crowd sizes here

[crazytown]

17. Right. I thought Portland was 2016.

[qazplm135]

4. and if Biden had large crowd sizes

would you not be touting those? Would we not have dozens of diaries about it?

[Skya Rhen]

5. Kamala had 20,000 people at her first rally and look at her numbers now. I love touting Joe's poll

numbers which mean something - the experts and I agree on this...

[qazplm135]

6. the answer is yes, you would

because of course you would. So talking about others doing so is disingenuous.
When those poll numbers come down, and they will, you will find something else to talk about, just like everyone else.

[crazytown]

9. Then you didn't what Nate Silver said

Warren's crowds really confirm what we see in the data more than it contradicts it

[not_the_one]

10. Crowd size is an indication of passion and intensity.

Voters who are passionate and feel intensely about their candidate are more likely to make it to the polls. I think Dems are going to have the passion and intensity factors covered.

And I question anyone who says to not believe what you see or hear. That sounds too much like something that has already been put out.

Nate is implying these exceptions are not the rule, suggesting we be prepared to accept what we didn't see or hear, and I find THAT unacceptable.

I am not impressed with Nate.

[NYMinute]

11. K&R nt

[pnwmom]

12. Bernie had bigger crowd sizes than Hillary. HOWEVER,

Elizabeth has both large crowd sizes, like Bernie, AND a really strong Democratic organization and ties to the party -- like Hillary.

[GreenPartyVoter]

18. I hope she proves Nate wrong!

[betsuni]

13. K&R

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. We only have to look at recent history to know it's true. n/t