Biden's rivals won't oust him in the debates (Jennifer Rubin, WaPo)

[highplainsdem]

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/02/bidens-rivals-wont-defeat-him-debates/

As we look ahead to next week’s Democratic presidential debate, it would be wise to temper expectations for some decisive moment. By now the candidates have figured out how these things work, they’ve prepared and they’ve learned to prepare. And some of them may have figured out that, if anything, the debates are an exercise in avoiding disaster. Any polling bump from a great line will be temporary. Like the Hippocratic Oath, the first rule of debates remains “Do no harm.”

One silly meme after another — now the New York Times says Biden really doesn’t want to be out there — underscores the gap between political reporting and voter perception. Likewise, the debate hype falsely suggests that millions of voters will change their impression of candidates, especially of one contender developed over decades, based on a single answer.

How, then, do former vice president Joe Biden’s opponents oust him? Well, they won’t, at least at the debates. After a rusty first debate, Biden has figured out how to do well enough to avoid the dreaded “Biden stumbles!” headlines. If anything, his reservoir of knowledge and experience is likely to impress voters who’ve been told by the media he’s a gaffe-prone, clueless candidate. (Ironically, the first debate lowered expectations for Biden to such an extent that subsequent debates are more likely to get a passing grade.)

More likely than not, the race in January 2020 will look pretty much the way it does now, which is pretty much the way it has looked since the spring, with the crucial exception that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has narrowed the gap with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

-snip-

Biden’s most serious risks are these: Democrats come to see that any of the top four or five candidates are entirely “electable” against an unraveling, downright crazy incumbent; one or more of Biden’s opponents catch fire in the weeks before Iowa and New Hampshire (as then-Sen. John McCain did in New Hampshire in 2008 and Barack Obama did in Iowa in the same year); or the not-Biden alternative quickly comes down to a single person who can capture the African American vote.

Provided Biden does no worse than he did in the second debate, his rivals and their supporters will need to settle in for the next few months to see if one or more of the risk factors come to pass.

[Thekaspervote]

1. Interesting!

[aikoaiko]

2. The data show that when Harris criticized Biden, Biden dropped and Harris soared.

Had there been sustained substantive criticism, we might have a different front runner already.

[peggysue2]

4. And that 'soaring' was very temporary in nature

Look at where Harris is now as people questioned how designed that attack was, how the tee-shirt campaign was in the pipeline. Same thing with Cory Booker. His attack provided a single % point after the second debate.

I think Rubin is spot on--a true challenge to Biden is unlikely to come from the debate platform but rather on the ground, an unforeseen circumstance or chain of events that propels one of the candidates with super-charged momentum. I really thought O'Rourke would catch fire after the El Paso slaughter. He was there, on point and rallied a lot of people. Yet his poll numbers are flat.

We shall see.

[highplainsdem]

5. LOL. There's been a lot of criticism of Biden. Look at how they went after him in

the second debate. And reporters and columnists who favor other candidates are constantly hammering him.

Yet Biden's still the front-runner.

[Polly Hennessey]

10. Maybe, we have wised up to

the constant hammering by the media on certain candidates. Benghazi and emails come to mind. Or Obama’s tan suit fiasco. Maybe, the public would be more interested in real issues than focusing on gaffes. Who cares.

[peggysue2]

12. I think that's right

We've seen and heard this picture show before. What worked in 2016 is flagging now with the electorate. It's a 'fool me once' scenario.

And oh, the tan suit brouhaha. Beyond ridiculous.

[Kahuna7]

6. Harris got a sugar high which quickly disappeared. Perhaps her stunt

convinced voters, after they had an opportunity to think about it, that she actually favors mandatory bussing. Oops! Mandatory bussing was and would continue to be an undesirable solution to desegregation.

[George II]

7. That means there should be "sustained substantive criticism" just for the sake of doing so?

The fact is that Harris' criticism of him on busing had a very short term effect of dropping him and "soaring" (a bit of an exaggeration) her.

That attack was a bit off-putting to many after some found out about her actual childhood - the daughter of two professionals (one an endocrinologist, the other an economics professor at Stanford University), growing up in affluent and progressive Berkeley.

The net result is that it backfired. Since that first debate, according to RCP, Biden has dropped an understandable 3.1% considering the two month shake out, and Harris is at 7.0, exactly where she was on June 26, the day before the debate.

[LincolnRossiter]

13. Lol. As far as negative press goes, you'd swear that Biden was the only candidate running.

Yet still he leads by double digits. And for those waiting for opposition to consolidate around some candidate to take him down, his average one-on-one lead against Warren, Sanders, and Harris is about 22 pts.

[Gothmog]

3. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

[question everything]

8. I will be happy if only Democrats are in the lead

[Hekate]

15. Same here

[sharedvalues]

9. Want candidate that can beat Republicans 2020-2024

We need not just a candidate that can beat Trump in 2020, but one who will beat Republicans 2020-2024.

The worst case scenario is:
D win 2020, Repub obstruction for 4 years, nothing gets done, GOP judges harm workers and help corporations and entrench voter suppression, a Republican like Josh Hawley wins in 2024, and then no other Dem win in Congress or presidency follows for 50 years.

What candidates can beat Moscow Mitch and Cit U and gerrymandering and voter suppression and the GOP billionaire donors starting in 2020? That is the key question for me.

[evertonfc]

11. Joe

Joe will be the nominee. He was VP for 8 years and I can't imagine we learn something we don't already know. He will win in the South without as much as a visit. I think we are betting on a safe choice. Joe isn't who I prefer. I was hoping for newer, young candidate to show the generational contrast to Trump. I'll support Joe 100%. I'm not sure two 70 plus year olds as a choice will fire up young people but its Trump and he must be defeated. The Biden/Abrams ticket will do that

[peggysue2]

14. Like Mineral Man, I see Joe Biden as a transitional figure

He's a man made for the moment which is why his past attempts at running for president are irrelevant.

Biden has the legislative background, the executive experience as a very involved VP, foreign policy chops that none of the other candidates have, and the necessary temperament--caring, pragmatic and bulldog persistence--to drag us back from the brink. His own choice for VP (most likely a woman or person of color/or both) will reflect his own nod to the future.

There will be a tremendous amount of repair work required of our next president. It will take a seasoned hand, someone who knows government inside out and has a network of relationships to get the job done well and in short order. Those who support Joe Biden believe he's the candidate with the skillset to do just that.

We can do this!

[Hekate]

16. Agreed

[cwydro]

21. Very good points.

[NYMinute]

17. Very astute nt

[Cha]

18. Thanks for this, highplainsdem!

We shall see in 2020.. but those trying to take Biden down just seem to be making him stronger!

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. I completely agree with Jennifer. n/t

[BeckyDem]

20. Its going to come down to policies.

[RhodeIslandOne]

22. Jennifer Rubin would prefer John Kasich

I do not care what she has to say. She hated Barack Obama with a passion.