Gen. Wesley Clark Was The Frontrunner At This Stage

[DrFunkenstein]

There is no such thing as a "national primary." The early states will be key in terms of momentum, media narratives, and fundraising going into super Tuesday.

Keep in mind that in September 2003, Gen. Wesley Clark was the frontrunner, followed by Congressman Dick Gephardt in second place and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Sen. Joe Lieberman tied for third.

It was only at the end of February 2008 when Barack Obama finally pulled ahead of Clinton in voter choice among Democratic primary voters nationally after winning a number of post-Super Tuesday contests and pulling ahead in the delegate count.

The people around here that are suggesting this thing is done and dusted either have short memories or, more likely, would be quite happy if everything were actually done and dusted just as they stand today.

Wishing something was a foregone conclusion doesn't make it so.

But people have told Warren to give up before. Nevertheless, she persisted.

"Don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'"

-Bob Dylan

[Andy823]

1. No where near done

This race is just getting started!

[frazzled]

2. I don't think so

Not according to the primary polling reported by Wikipedia.

Two September 2003 polls are listed: Clark (who had announced only on September 17) received 6% and 7%, respectively. By contrast,
John Kerry had 20% and 13%; Howard Dean had 21% and 17%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2004_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

ON EDIT: Sorry, these are state primary polls (I cited Iowa). In national polls, he briefly did well just after announcement, but he fared poorly in the early primaries. (I worked for him in NH, where he tied for 3rd)

[BootinUp]

7. The OP is incorrect. I was a DuClarkie in 03.

He never had the polling lead certainly not in an aggregate analysis.

[DownriverDem]

11. Besides

Biden is the best candidate the Dems have. Too many folks are ignoring that because they have their own favorites. Come on folks. Focus on who will be the best candidate to win the Electoral College which means state by state. Biden running with a strong, progressive, Dem woman would be an excellent ticket. We have never had a woman VP. Americans are slow to support women leaders. A woman VP would show the country that she is capable of being president. That's where we are. All that matters is beating trump.

[AtheistCrusader]

14. Your opinion. Not everyone's.

[highplainsdem]

3. Ricidulous comparison. Clark was at 12% in the CBS Sept. 2004 poll and had just entered the race,

and some polls had Dean slightly ahead then, as I recall, and Dean was the frontrunner by November.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-democratic-primary-how-much-does-being-an-early-frontrunner-matter/

The poll that had Clark at 12% immediately after entering the race had Gephardt at 10% and Dean and Lieberman at 9%.

Biden has been at roughly 30% for ten months now.

Sanders and Warren have been divvying up a bloc of progressive voters roughly equal to the Biden-supporter bloc. Warren's been slowly, quite slowly, taking more of that bloc.

There is simply no comparison between Biden's strong, long-lasting lead and Clark's polling.

[qazplm135]

15. Better comparison is Clinton 08

With a strong lead over two other contenders at this point in 07 in Obama and Edwards with a large majority of AA support as well.

[DrFunkenstein]

17. How About Clinton 45% and Obama 27% in DECEMBER 2007

Back when Biden could still count on 3% of Democrats?

https://news.gallup.com/poll/103351/clinton-maintains-large-lead-over-obama-nationally.aspx

A few weeks later - literally - the results in Iowa were Obama 38% and 30% for Clinton.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Caucus_results

Again, there is no "National Primary," Iowa tends to be predictive for Dems, and Biden's numbers are very soft there with enthusiasm driving the caucus system. A loss there would puncture that "inevitability" raft pretty fast, just like it did with Clinton in 2008. Losing Iowa torpedoed Dean, as well.

Meanwhile, Biden and Warren haven't even shared a stage. This thing is far from over.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Biden's numbers in Iowa are far stronger than Clinton's at this point.

It's cute you leave that little fact out, tho.

On Sept. 4th, 2007, Hillary's average lead in Iowa was 26% and Obama's was 24% - only a two-point difference. Anyone half-paying attention to the race could see that the race in Iowa was far more narrow than the race nationally.

Currently? Biden's average lead is 8% in Iowa.

[Docreed2003]

4. Found this from Gallup

https://news.gallup.com/poll/9331/clark-bolts-front-democratic-field.aspx

A really interesting look back and how Clark fared better than any other Dem against Bush per the polls...also, at least in this poll Dean was in second. A follow up article from December of that year had Dean in the lead over Clark. I remember Kerry being somewhat of an afterthought leading up to the primaries but I had forgotten just how low he was in the polls.

[LincolnRossiter]

5. Respectfully, I'm pretty sure you're wrong here.

I was alive and cognizant in 2004 and Clark was at no point the enduring frontrunner. He led in a few polls just after he announced. Biden has led in every poll save one outlier since he announced—generally by double digits. He’s raised money at a faster rate than anyone except maybe Buttigieg. He has the most big name endorsements. He is a frontrunner.

[question everything]

6. Regardless of the topic. We cannot draw from anything before 2012, or so

This is when "Social Media" started replacing regular interactions.

[LincolnRossiter]

8. My thread, based on RCP data, goes back to 2008 precisely for this reason (well that's as far back

as they went as well). And since 2012, the leader at this point has won every nomination. Romney in 12, Clinton and Trump in 16.

[qazplm135]

16. So

A sample size of three?

[LincolnRossiter]

18. Five actually. And based upon the limited sample size, I'd rather be in the lead than anywhere else.

You wanna try to convince me you wouldn’t?

[qazplm135]

19. You since 2012

And listed three people.

And I would want to be anywhere in the top five at this point. Being in the lead is a guarantee of nothing at this point.

Anyone of the top five can easily end up on top.

[LincolnRossiter]

20. So you'd be just as happy in 5th place in single digits as you would in first place with almost 1/3

voters supporting you?

Interesting.

And I was alluding to my thread when I wrote “five.” Since 2008, the late August leader won three times and finished a close second a fourth (Hillary in 2008). It’s better to be in the lead early than to not be in the lead early.

[qazplm135]

21. I wouldn't care because

It's not going to be in this order come the end. There were be changes. I simply would want to be viable at this point. Any top support is as much name recognition as anything else.

[George II]

9. It's a whole new world out there now than it was in 2003. People are much more informed...

...and are so earlier than they were 16 years ago.

They may have been used, but Facebook and twitter were novelties back then, now they're used to communicate with huge masses of potential voters. Even CNN and MSNBC weren't as tuned in on politics back then as they are today.

[Still In Wisconsin]

10. Good reminder. I was a supporter, too, thinking he had the best chance to beat Bush.

I'm kinda looking at this race the same way. Who can beat Trump?

Maybe I should expand my field of focus some.

[JGug1]

12. Eventual Nominee

It isn't that people are calling it over. It is the impatience of waiting. It's like watching tomatoes plants grow and finally bear fruit and then watching it FINALLY turn from green to red.

[elleng]

13. Interesting there are so many Clarkies here.

Key Results

WON Oklahoma Primary, 2d in AZ, NM, ND

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesley_Clark_2004_presidential_campaign

[UncleNoel]

22. I was a Clarkie!

I was actively involved in Gen. Clark's campaign. Clark decided to skip Iowa where Dean was number one. In NH Clark was polling in tthe 20s and Dean in th 30s with Kerry and Edwards in the single digits (Kerry down around 1 and 2%). When the Iowa folks got tired of the fighting between the two front runners in Iowa and chose the lower tier of Kerry and Edwards, they came flying into NH and swamped out the former front runners there (helped by Dean's infamous scream). Clark dropped to the mid-teens and then in the well-known hit debate just before the election, Clark lost out there. Edwards went on to win only his favorite son state in the Carolinas whereas Clark was coming in second in many states. When Clark was black nalled in Tennessee, he gave it up and flew up to endorse Kerry. He was ghe logical choice for VP, but Edwards operatives convince Kerry top chose the empty-suit Edwards.

Iowa is vital and Clark reflected he should not have opted out of the race there.

I had no problem with Joe versus Clark, though we grinned when Clark would say something that Biden would repeat within days. At least Joe knew a good thing when he heard it! I support Joe unflaggingly. He is the real deal.

[elleng]

23. Wes took someone's BAD advice to 'ignore' campaigning in Iowa,

some Clarkies think deliberately to derail Wes' chances.

He gave it up on a rainy day in Tennessee.

Wes was (and IS) the real deal.

[JI7]

24. Clark would have been better vp pick

the election was very close and Kerry was the one that carried it mostly by himself. we have seen how effective vps can be such as Biden , especially during the 2012 debates when he had to turn things around after Obama's first debate against romney. a better VP would have turned things around. Edwards is actually a worse pick than Palin in some ways because the outcome would not have been different without Palin in 2008. but in 2004 it was close enough that an effective vp would have made a difference. Edwards refused to be the attack dog which is one of the jobs of the VP candidates during the campaign.

[Raine]

25. I was a Clarkie but he was out

before I got a chance to vote for him here in California.

[True Blue American]

27. Hillary

Should have chosen Sherrod Brown instead of Kaine, too. She would have won the electoral vote in 3 states. Ohio, Pa. and Michigan.

[True Blue American]

26. I would have loved

To see Wesley Clark as President

[BlueTsunami2018]

28. I was a big time Clarkie.

He was never the front runner the way Biden is, sad to say. He would have been a great President and probably should have been Kerry’s running mate on a “Stars and Stripes” ticket to take out the chickenhawks. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be.

I still have my Clark sticker on my tool box.

[myohmy2]

30. +1

...so true...


https://berniesanders.com/issues/

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