Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumWarren supporters: will you ever care about vs. Trump poll results?
First of all, I like Warren and would be happy to vote for her. I may even do so in the primaries if I get sufficiently concerned about Biden's age and mental state.
But I admit that my support for Biden is largely based upon my loathing for Trump. The polls showing Biden doing much better than Warren against Trump are not a blip- they have been remarkably consistent for many months.
So my question for Warren supporters is: assuming the polls vs. Trump stay like they are, will that give you any cause for concern in voting for her? Do you not worry you will wake up in November 2020 to the realization that Trump will be appointing Supreme Court justices instead of a Democrat?
To me the stakes are too high to not go with Biden IF the polls continue to show him doing much better against Trump.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)in their results (i.e. are state by state polls). Otherwise a candidate could be chosen that wins the popular vote and loses the election (it could happen, you know).
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
at140
(6,110 posts)in the grueling general election campaign.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)She will make Trump look like an ignorant, sloven loser.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,729 posts)He does it all by himself!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Butterflylady
(3,523 posts)Who can beat the fat bastard is the question. People here have to remember that our nominee has to bring in the repugs who hate the fat bastard. Biden can do just that with plenty of energy to spare.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
at140
(6,110 posts)IMHO Trump eked out a win by out working Hillary. He even held a rally at mid-night on election eve.
I have no doubts in my mind the energetic dynamo Elizabeth Warren (among the 3 top contenders) is best suited to out-work fatso & out of shape Trump. And Warren is attracting very good sized crowds to her rallies.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)But Trump simply out worked Hillary on the campaign trail. He loves crowd adulation, so that drove him. Our nominee simply must do his number of daily rallies, then some, the only person that has shown that she can and is willing do that is Warren. Warren also has shown that she will go anywhere to campaign. Bringing a campaign to smaller town is hard in a General, but if say she is campaigning in Orlando or Tampa Florida, hit some of the small towns nearby, and drive up to a Gainesville or Ocala to get smaller, yet large population cities. Trump held a rally in my nearest small city, Hillary did not come within 80 miles of it, I saw the effect of Trump campaigning here firsthand, his MAGATS were jacked up and later doing smaller rallies on squares. Here in Florida, statewide races are won or lost in the smaller counties, President Obama's campaign understood that, it does not look like Hillary's campaign did.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
at140
(6,110 posts)Trump had planned a rally in Everett, WA just before the election 2016, and the venue was only 10 miles from my residence, so curiosity got me to obtain a free ticket and attended his rally. As you said, I got to see first hand how jacked up the Trumpofiles were, same as swallowing uppers, and as you correctly observed, Trump gets all jacked up when the crowd is cheering.
Running against Trump, a laid back Hillary style campaign will not cut it, relying on polls.
Elizabeth Warren not only has the energy and stamina, but the ability to connect with crowds.
I like Biden, but he will be no match with Trump in campaign effort.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)That WILL NOT work against someone like Trump who loves crowd adulation. In the 2020 campaign, Russia could declare war on us (other than interfering in the vote) and Trump will still go to his rallies instead of being in the Situation Room, that is the reality, the media will ignore that Trump isn't doing his job and instead broadcast testimonial of MAGATS of how much they love him and how great he is for the country and world.
The news media IS NOT going to help our candidate by digging out facts. I recently read a line from a media person about how Trump has been donating his salary since taking office, an apparent lie that person made no attempt to fact check (not that such a thing is possible since Trump won't release tax returns, but the media person could have at least pointed out that the salary donation stuff cannot be confirmed).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wysimdnwyg
(2,229 posts)The Democratic nominee does NOT need to "win back" the republican voters. She (or he) needs to get out the vote in general, and that's done by exciting the voters.
Here's some vote totals to illustrate:
2008
Obama - 69,498,516
McCain - 59,948,323
Total (discounts 3rd party votes) - 129,446,839
% Voting Age Pop - 58.2%
2016
Clinton - 65,853,514
Trump - 62,984,828
Total (discounts 3rd party votes) - 128,838,342
% Voting Age Pop - 55.5%
The biggest difference there (aside from people who voted for Trump because the alternative was Hillary - we all have to admit and accept that no matter how much the members of DU may like her and are sure she would have been an excellent President, 25 years of GOP slurs against her took their toll), is that Obama brought a much better turnout. He got 4M more votes than Hillary and brought 3% better overall turnout. Biden may be favored by pollsters - and don't get me wrong, that means something - but someone who can excite the voters and drive large turnouts will dominate the general, no matter what the pollsters may think right now.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Chamber of Commerce republicans like the predominant type in my red county are going to vote for a sane democrat, Hillary made no effort her and got a lot of their votes, but Hillary failed to buck-up her base here in my county. It WILL matter is Elizabeth Warren does a high energy rally here, she will buck up her base and even assure the Chamber of Commerce republicans that she is legit. In my state of Florida, reducing the republican's winning margin in red counties matters big, there is no escaping that. We have a smallscale beef raising business in my county, Trump has hammered American beef with his tariff nonsense, some of those farmers, some of their relatives and voting age kids will be up for grabs when given a message that speaks to the reality that they are experiencing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)When Trump was making daily allusions that Hillary was ill and Hillary was taking days off the campaign trail, that MATTERED in the minds of the people who may were going to vote, I talked to some of those people and tried to convince them to vote no matter what.
A Senator Warren out on the trail going anywhere can make fun of Trump, like "it matters that a person is available in the White House at times other than 3am when he is sitting on the toilet. I have the will and energy to do the job Americans need done". She can force the loser into coming after her and force him to make critical mistake rather than letting him set the image of her campaign.
What I see from Biden is campaigning similar to how Hillary did, and that is really worrisome to me. In Senator Warren, I see someone who is out campaigning every day that she is not working and on weekends when she is, going to places that I never heard of to talk to people in those places.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)and another candidate looks significantly more likely to carry at least three of those states, I would probably change my vote.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
spooky3
(34,303 posts)They typically show Biden beating Trump by perhaps a 10 point margin, but Warren beats him by 8-9.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,732 posts)2 points of Biden's margin beating Trump.
Sanders is, sometimes, though he usually doesn't do as well as Biden. Warren is in third place in all or almost all of the matchup polls I've seen and she's often tied with Trump or beating him by only a couple of points, or losing narrowly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Looks like there is one with her ahead by 12.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(48,732 posts)If you skim down that, and keep clicking the button to show more polls, you'll see that Biden almost always outdoes the other candidates against Trump.
And yes, in a recent Quinnipiac poll Warren was ahead of Trump by 12. Biden was ahead by 16 points in that poll.
I don't think we can count on every Democratic candidate beating Trump. And since we can't, it's smartest to go with the candidate who polls best against Trump.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)The question was whether there are pols with her beating trump with more than 9 points and there are. But the significance of these polls at this point is tested by history.
Take these head to head poll averages for obama against mccain 2008. Almost always did Hillary poll better. But Obama won historical coattails and brought in states that hadnt voted for a democrat in decades. Head to head polls at this point are not the best indicators of what will happen in a year from now. Keep in mind warren isnt polling much worse than obama was in head to head polls at this point in the cycle in 2008.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(48,732 posts)GE match-ups against Trump. Which is why I gave the link for the page at FiveThirtyEight listing those results for lots of polls, so people could compare how she does against Trump to how Biden does, in each poll.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)What actually happens based on past polling and election results
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Ninga
(8,266 posts)brimstone. The voting public will be very well acquainted with the nominee.
Whomever the nominee is, will defeat the GOP in a landslide.
The electability argument is 2016....this next election will take place in an environment never before experienced.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Funtatlaguy
(10,856 posts)in all of the important state polls that we need in the electoral college.
55% of this country would NEVER vote for Trump. Just gotta GOTV.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TCJ70
(4,387 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RockRaven
(14,784 posts)I genuinely do not recall what the numbers were...
but my point is that there are no guarantees that what those polls show will manifest in reality 14-15 months from now. Or national poll numbers might show the limits of their relevance because of the Electoral College, as it was with Clinton/Trump in 2016.
It would be unwise to ignore those polls ENTIRELY, but IMO it would also be unwise to give them veto authority in regards to a candidate who you like and believe in.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TCJ70
(4,387 posts)...generally by a wider margin than Clinton.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)Trump vs Sanders
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html
Trump vs. Clinton
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
For the most accurate comparisons, you should scroll the two charts so that you can compare how they do on the same date, from the same pollster.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
we can do it
(12,118 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Joe941
(2,848 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
sharedvalues
(6,916 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
at140
(6,110 posts)Only reason Trump eked out a win in 2016 was the relentless 100+ rallies he held.
He even held a rally at mid-night on election eve. Those rallies help spread the message and gets local media attention...at very little cost.
Only Warren among the 3 top contenders has the energy to outwork Trump in 2020. And she is getting excellent turnout at her rallies.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Joe941
(2,848 posts)You know tRump is 73 himself.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
at140
(6,110 posts)I was a physical wreck at age 55, with chest pains after eating steak, no energy after working 8 hours and becoming a couch potato, hip joint pain, and elevated blood pressure. Then I started having faint feeling at work in the mornings but was ok after lunch break.
So I resigned from a good and secure job at 57, thinking what good is money if I die of a heart attack.
With suddenly loads of free time on hand, moved from expensive Chicago burbs to a small town in Wash state and joined a cheap golf club in Washougal, WA. It was a basically a blue collar private club with lot of members from the paper mill in Camas, WA. Started playing golf 5 week days every week, and walk the course since could not afford riding cart. In a private club one can play unlimited golf for a fixed monthly fee. So it was ideal for a retired guy like me. Now I am 79, and have zero pains and zero medical expenses. I no longer belong to a private golf club, but exercise every other day in nearby Gym.
To make a long story short, walking 30 miles every week (5 rounds of 18 holes), my health improved like crazy. No more chest pains, blood pressure under 130/80, no more hip joint pain, no more fainting spells.
But here is the kicker...in a private club you get to know lot of members, since only members can play. And what I observed was that even the old farts who rode riding carts hardly ever had heart attacks. Most were fat and drank booze after the game. Usual cause of death was cancer. Which told me that playing golf regularly even while riding makes you physically strong. And my guess is that is the main reason Trump could do 100+ rallies all over the country last time. I expect Trump to do 100+ rallies again before election 2020.
Which is why I am backing Elizabeth Warren. She seems the most energetic of the 3 leading in polls. She can easily do 100+ energetic rallies before Nov 2020. Well, actually I also like her knowledge, experience and agenda on banking & wall street issues.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MrsCoffee
(5,801 posts)cardiac arrest?
https://www.kron4.com/news/golf-and-sudden-cardiac-arrest/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
at140
(6,110 posts)occasional golfers who play less than 5 rounds a month during the year.
I played most of my golf in private golf clubs, where golfers average 15 rounds per month and I can't remember any member dying of a heart attack on golf course or at home. And since only members can play, I got to know all the regular golfers.
The public courses in Chicago area where I golfed prior to retirement, were over crowded with mobs of golfers. The private courses on the other hand are sparse and wide open most of the time.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MrsCoffee
(5,801 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
sharedvalues
(6,916 posts)Also, we need someone who is going to beat the GOP 2020-2024, not just someone who can win in 2020. All the Dems can win in 2020. Not all can beat McConnell.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LakeArenal
(28,729 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
griffi94
(3,731 posts)I like Biden fine but he's had his time. Every election cycle seems to be the same.
Democrats lament that if young voters turned out we would crush the repubs, then we nominate a status quo
candidate that has no appeal to anybody under the age of 35. It seems like a better idea to offer a change to the status quo
with a candidate whose vision is inspirational rather one who is largely more of same but seems more electable.
I'm voting for policies I agree with and I'm done voting for toothless placeholders.
That whole argument of don't overreach got blown out of the water.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapfog_1
(29,166 posts)I guess that 6 year difference is a really a big dividing line.
so... Obama was a toothless placeholder.. or maybe Hillary Clinton was...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
griffi94
(3,731 posts)Obama did the best he could after 2010. He did have a super majority the first 2 years but the Democrats decided
single payer was over reach. It's hard to fault President Obama for trying to work with republicans, but now we
know that's not possible. So to hell with the status quo. Another Old white guy with a decades long record of centrist, corporate friendly votes isn't going to grow the party.
I'll happily vote for Biden if he's our candidate but he's not my first choice.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LincolnRossiter
(560 posts)change? Kind of silly to condemn a candidate for things he didnt choose.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
griffi94
(3,731 posts)Biden's OK just a bit too status quo for my tastes. A bit more centrist than I'm going to support
in the primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emulatorloo
(43,982 posts)Bidens a liberal, which is not centrist. But Warren is left liberal so she to the left of him on some issues. All our candidates agree w each other mostly.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
griffi94
(3,731 posts)And in the general election I will be happy to vote for our nominee.
But I still prefer Warren's more progressive positions. Joe may be liberal compared to Trump but
I'm not using Trump as any kind of benchmark. Compared to Warren, Biden is still a centrist.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emulatorloo
(43,982 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
vsrazdem
(2,176 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Joe941
(2,848 posts)It is about policy and not age and race. Bringing that up just shows prejudice on your part. I expect that from goppers not progressives.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
griffi94
(3,731 posts)Would bring you some relief.
Good luck. Feel better soon.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
at140
(6,110 posts)I am in much better physical shape at 79 than I was at 55. You may want to read my post #66.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LakeArenal
(28,729 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
griffi94
(3,731 posts)Good luck.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,729 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
griffi94
(3,731 posts)And good luck to you too
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Can EW win back the rust belt? Im not confident. Im sure Joe can. The numbers are what they are
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
griffi94
(3,731 posts)My views are more aligned with Warren. My primary vote is based on that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
griffi94
(3,731 posts)It's still a long way out. Trump's not going to stop being Trump. The repubs aren't expanding their base at all.
I'm all in for EW. No status quo candidates for me in the primary.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)....she will win.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,285 posts)Last edited Wed Sep 4, 2019, 10:40 PM - Edit history (2)
Plus based on their respective campaigns to date, Bidens numbers have nowhere to go but down and Warrens will continue to improve.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Thank you.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hurl
(931 posts)I don't put much stock in the polls at this point, and I am not convinced VP Biden is our strongest candidate. We have many great candidates, including him. The insistence from some of his supporters here that he is the only one capable of beating Trump is divisive and insulting to the rest of our great field. I'm proud of our deep bench.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oldsoftie
(12,410 posts)This requires a lot of thought.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)He has the potential for good midwest appeal. He's a bit more moderate for balance. At his age, he'd be well positioned to run in 8 years. And because I'd love to see him debate Pence!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oldsoftie
(12,410 posts)Fair or not, like it or not, if we have a female nominee, she will HAVE to have a strong VP pick to calm any fears that "fence sitters' may have about electing a woman as President. I.E., Sanders as VP (i know, would never happen) would be a terrible choice for Warren.
I remember the 08 campaign; many worried about McCains age (remember when age was a thing?). And when he picked Palin as VP, a lot of people thought "Holy crap, if anything DID happen to the President, SHE takes over??!?? Nope"
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DrFunkenstein
(8,745 posts)Take a look for yourself and count how many times Clinton posted a double-digit lead over Trump.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls
What this doesn't show is how soft her numbers were. There was a massive enthusiasm gap for an establishment candidate that was far too cozy with Wall Street millionaires and billionaires.
I voted for Clinton and I would certainly vote for Biden, but he is not the strongest candidate by a long shot. There is a similar enthusiasm gap.
No one can tell me that Biden would ever, ever ever be in this position if he had not balanced out the ticket for Obama. As a candidate on his own merely as a Senator from Delaware, he'd be lucky to make the next debate.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oldsoftie
(12,410 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DrFunkenstein
(8,745 posts)There's a reason why Trump has repeatedly gone after Biden for his meager attendances. Then you look at the crowds for Warren, Sanders, Harris...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oldsoftie
(12,410 posts)Trump only goes where he KNOWS he'll draw big crowds. The Dems go everywhere
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
rownesheck
(2,343 posts)are these morons who would vote for Biden over trump, but would pick trump over Warren?! Is that what these polls are suggesting?! If so, this country is just one giant turd burger! I hope I just don't understand how polls work.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BeyondGeography
(39,285 posts)Its crap.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)... actual head-to-head polls are useful.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,285 posts)Quinnipiac had her +7 v Trump eg. Shes frankly way ahead of where I thought shed be on electability at this early point. If she starts winning states in the primary all the numbers will move around and things will take care of themselves.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,355 posts)Biden can win...while Warren has my vote in a general, I say she wins the popular vote and loses the EC...she would win a direct election but we don't have those.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Politicub
(12,163 posts)even if Warren were at the top of all of them. they tell us very little this far out.
And electability sums and opinions are equally useless when it comes to the primaries.
This election will be about getting out the vote. Trump matchups mean nothing at this point in time. Ill care more about polls next year.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)Warren at this stage. That gap will close as more people tune into the election and get to know her.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradical79
(4,490 posts)Biden was the only one I saw in + territory here (+2), but the percentages for Trump were smaller vs. all the other candidates. Just a lot of undecideds.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Jirel
(1,993 posts)Those polls are meaningless right now, just like the polls with the ginormous Rethuglican pack in 2016 were meaningless. Nobody took Needy Amin seriously among them early on, much less as a winning nom vs. Clinton. Polls can give you a weak read on trends, but at this stage they say nothing about who would win in a real head to head battle.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Feeling a wee bit nervous about Warren?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Act_of_Reparation
(9,116 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ChubbyStar
(3,191 posts)Not one reply.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)Ant that person will be there to fill in if something happens to Joe.
At this point ALL that matters is
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)lose. our candidate must see the future realistically. thats warren, not biden. so far biden is riding name recognition and being a pretty darn good guy. but now is the time to make a fundamental change in American history.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Bradical79
(4,490 posts)At this point, they're pretty much irrelevant. Unless it's a massive difference when it comes down to the final 2 or 3, I'm not taking it into account at all.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided