Democrats' Most Plugged-In Voting Bloc Seems To Be Coalescing Behind Warren

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

As political journalists, we follow the 2020 presidential primary race day by day — or even minute by minute. Still, we know that plenty of Democrats have been paying attention, too. But which Democrats are most likely to be plugged in?

It turns out that the most ideological voters tend to be the most politically engaged, so in this case that means very liberal Democrats are the ones paying the closest attention. In fact, if we look at the five most recent Quinnipiac University polls where Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters were asked if they were paying “a lot” of attention to the presidential campaign, you’ll see that, on average, about 64 percent of those who identified as “very liberal” were paying a lot of attention, compared to about 48 percent of “somewhat liberal” Democrats and 47 percent of “moderate/conservative” Democrats.

These super plugged-in, very liberal voters are also increasingly backing one candidate: Sen. Elizabeth Warren. In June, 29 percent of these voters said they supported Warren, and by early August — after her strong performance in the second primary debate — that number had grown to 40 percent. The latest August survey put her at 34 percent among these voters, while no other candidate earned more than 22 percent.

And since 46 percent of Democrats now identify as liberal, that subset of Democratic primary voters could offer a big boost for Warren’s campaign if she can continue to make inroads among these very liberal (and somewhat liberal) Democrats. That 46 percent number, which was published in a Pew Research Center report that tracked the ideological views of adults who identify as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, was the largest share to identify as liberal since Pew first asked the question in 2003. To be clear, though, the majority of Democrats (53 percent) still identified as “moderate” or “conservative,” which could open up a path to the nomination for a candidate like former Vice President Joe Biden.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-most-plugged-in-voting-bloc-seems-to-be-coalescing-behind-warren/

[griffi94]

1. I like her chances

She's been steadily gaining ground. She performed well in the debates.
The more name recognition she gets the more formidable she's going to be.

[kimbutgar]

2. I would be happy with either her or Biden right now

Harris and Castro next in my ranking.

[Bradshaw3]

3. This should be predictive of what happens when the voting begins

Most Democratic voters aren't paying that much attention right now but the ones who are (like here at DU) favor Waren. So when the others start getting involved one would expect her to rise even more than she has.