Kamala Harris at NH Democratic Convention: "We are up for a good fight!"

[bigtree]

Daryon @daryongeronimo 2h
“This is a moment in time requiring us to fight for the best of who we are and fight, Democrats we will, — let us remember, every great achievement, progress we made as a nation came out of a good fight. We are up for a good fight!”

watch: (12m)

[at140]

1. Which state will Kamala win first?

NH she has no chance. Iowa looks questionable. SC?

[wasupaloopa]

2. She will win big on Super Tuesday.

Last edited Sat Sep 7, 2019, 04:34 PM - Edit history (1)

[bigtree]

4. I think a first or second place in Iowa can generate the kind of interest and belief in her campaign

...that propelled Obama to later victories and the nom.

She's down against an aura of 'electability' which is really a bubble that can be as easily affected as it was over that little tiffle in the first debate.

That's what I'd watch for, something that pierces that thin cover of electability and experience that Hillary also led in as late as Dec. 2007, and leading Obama by as much as 30 pts in Gallup (ironically, after a slight comeback and fall by Barack.)

(The Iowa win) was where voters, black voters (around the nation) especially, began to believe he could win and migrated to his campaign.

[at140]

6. Black voters in Iowa are a small percentage

Obama did well in Iowa by igniting interest of white voters.

[bigtree]

7. not black voters in Iowa

...black voters around the nation were motivated to his support by his win in Iowa, breaking that belief that Hillary was more 'electable.'

[at140]

8. Aah, OK that is a valid point ! nt

[bigtree]

9. I did write it like you interpreted

...I appreciate the opportunity you provided for me to make my point clear.

It looks like the Iowa longshot is her strategy. It's not unprecedented, and it would be leveraged on the two particular constituencies Kamala has affinity with, black and women voters (all races), black women voting with a lot of influence in the past in these early Dem contests, as in SC and the other southern states where the black vote is at a greater percentage than in other Dem races.

(I hope I wrote that right because it's nearing my bedtime. )

[bigtree]

3. I'm not riding polls

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[Andy823]

5. Polls go up, and polls go down

what counts is the votes the candidates get once the primaries start. I think she knows that. This race is just getting started, and the polls will change over, and over, and over again. It's how the candidate connects to the people that will count in the long run, not some random selection of people that get called on the phone.

[bigtree]

10. some folks think this is effective opposition to point to the early polls

...history suggests predictions at this point are likely wrong.

I actually think its bad form to pester supporters about polls, but here we are.

[DesertRat]

11. Yes!

[bigtree]

12. kick

Link to tweet