CBS News Battleground Poll: Warren 26%, Biden 25%, Sanders 19% (early contests thru super Tuesday)

[jcgoldie]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-battleground-tracker-2020-poll-elizabeth-warren-rises-as-joe-biden-clings-to-delegate-edge/

[lapfog_1]

1. remember. the media WANTS a horse race to cover. - n/t

[jcgoldie]

2. Oh ok

I see a whole lot of gleeful Biden polls thrown up here. Hadn't seen this one so thought I'd share

BTW so do I want a horse race.

Also curious... how do we discern the legitimate polls that indicate who voters are trending to or favor from the ones that simply demonstrate the bias of the media? By who's winning?

[lapfog_1]

3. well, keep looking for more polling like this one

I'm sure the media will provide more.

BTW, If Warren was ahead 29 to 19 would you then be rooting for Biden or Sanders to catch up to make it a "horse race"?

[jcgoldie]

4. No I would not

Because I think Warren is the superior candidate and would make the best President. Still curious how we discern which polls the media has twisted to suit their narrative... is it by who is winning?

[lapfog_1]

9. Whoever is ahead is who they will express "concerns about"

If Warren was ahead, we would hear more about her "Pocahontas" problem or "she doesn't have the support of the African American community" or "what about her socialism, can that win in a general election".

With Biden, it's been "he is too old (76 to Warren's 70)" or "enthusiasm gap" or "gaff ridden" or "problem with younger voters" and "too middle of the road for the new Democratic party" or "yet another old white man".

If Sanders was leading we would hear more about "too socialist", "too angry", "yet another old white guy" and "no broader support than last time", "no new solutions"...

If Harris was ahead we would hear more about "she lied about prosecuting X oil company" or "she prosecuted a lot of marginal criminal cases" or "what has she done since being elected Senator", etc.

For the media, this is a game...

[blm]

14. Is Warren a socialist? I heard she believes in HEALTHY Capitalism.

Which is true?

[lapfog_1]

20. That isn't what the media would report.

You might believe it to be true... and maybe it is true, but that doesn't matter to the media who is all too ready to be complicit in any smear that the GOP puts out there.

Plus M4A is pure socialism. You all might as well own that. It happens to be the form of socialism practiced by most of the rest of the world, but it is, in fact, socialism... just like Social Security, Medicare, etc.

[blm]

37. Perhaps it needs someone who EXCELS at explaining how healthy capitalism

Works and how it would benefit all.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/23/elizabeth-warren-i-am-a-capitalist-but-markets-need-rules.html

[lapfog_1]

40. old business bromide

never ever try to tell the consumer why what you have is superior to what they want, sell them what they want even if you have a superior product.

In other words, you don't educate the consumer, the consumer educates you.

I have no faith that Warren, or anyone else, can educate the public on how she is really a capitalist, even though she puts forward almost the same plans as the avowed socialist, Bernie Sanders.

[blm]

42. I do.

I think you’re wrong. We’ll see.

[lapfog_1]

46. I don't want this election to depend on a "we'll see"

This election needs to be about slamming Trump so hard that any attempt by him to contest it would be laughable. We need to win by 10 million votes and a electoral college wipe out.

He will contest it anyway... but it just has to be so obvious to everyone, including his supporters, that he lost that there will be nothing for him to do but to slink off to Mar-a-lago and start his TV network to further fleece his supporters.

After that, in another 4 years, you can educate the public as to why Warren is the superior candidate to what ever swamp creature the Trump party nominates.

Hell, right now I would take the Biden / Warren ticket... and Joe could even privately make the agreement that he will be a 1 term President (I mean who really wants the job at the age of 80).

But we HAVE to beat Trump senseless... and then file criminal charges against him and his cabinet and family and others in his misadministration.

After that we spend 4 years undoing everything he did...

[KPN]

59. There's quite a difference between 76 and 70 actually. I'm 68. Just from personal experience

I can see a huge difference between 64 and 68. There's no question that despite my attempts to stay young, my physical abilities and stamina have declined significantly, I need more sleep, and my forgetter is working a whiole lot better than it did just 4 years ago.

Just saying ...

[lapfog_1]

64. As I stated before

I didn't want Clinton, Sanders, Warren, or Biden to run this time.

The only one to stay out was Clinton.

I wanted a younger, more vibrant energy. The Presidency is a killer job (for those who actually do the job, not like Trump). You can see what it does to people like Bill Clinton in the before and after pictures.

For whatever reason, the younger candidates didn't catch fire this go round. I had hopes for Castro, Beto, Mayor Pete, Harris, and Booker (and even Yang and Inslee). Unfortunately, none have caught the imagination of the party (at least so far) and the older generation didn't step aside and they all have more TV time and name recognition than the younger set. So, at this point, all I want to see is for us to beat Trump... and beat him badly because I fear he will contest the election. All of the potential Democrats above 15% in the primary polling show they can beat Trump... but only Biden has shown he can beat Trump by double digits (and that sometimes slips to only 8 or 9 points with a margin of error in the 4 point range).

I think Biden is a decent person... and I think he will restore decency and compassion to the White House AND undo the Trump era. I also think he will decide to be a 1 term President. I hope he picks a younger more progressive running mate, possibly even a minority woman... to carry the party forward in 4 years.

However, right now, it's beat Trump and save democracy from a dictator.

[KPN]

68. I'm with you on wanting a younger candidate and beating tRump being the principal priority. My

personal sense is that while the polls show Biden as beating tRump by a wider margin than any of the others, I don't buy it in the same way I didn't buy HRCs polling numbers against any R or against tRump eventually in 2015-16. Those numbers never rang true to me. I know that was just a feeling, but .... I have that same feeling around Biden this time around. Hey, I have always actually liked Biden BTW. He's record is not as progressive as I would have preferred, but I've nevertherless always liked and respected him.

[lapfog_1]

70. I supported Hillary over Sanders

but I think she just didn't connect with voters, she would have been a great President, but she wasn't a great candidate. Didn't help that there was this nepotism thing with her... since 1980 there had been a Bush or a Clinton on the ballot for President/Vice President until 2008. That's a long stretch of time to give to two political families. Plus the Russians were very busy feeding false or misleading stories to social media.

The same thing is going to happen this time (Russian interference)... and it won't matter if it's Biden, or Warren, or Sanders... Putin has his "useful idiot" in office and won't want to see that change.

The polling will tighten (most everyone here can't even imagine why someone would vote for Trump, but spend a little time with the brainwashed cult... and you will realize that nothing, absolutely nothing, will shake their faith).

That is why we have to nominate the most electable person out of the field.. the one that appeals to the middle as well as the left. If the left isn't motivated to vote for Biden (or anyone with D and a pulse - or maybe just a D after their name) then we lose the democracy. I hear this bullshit about the Biden "enthusiasm" gap... it's bullshit.. the left has to vote for whoever wins the nomination. The independents and never Trumpers and even some of the Trump cultists who just want the tweets to end are exactly who we need to get.. and if that takes an old white guy, then so be it. Later we can nominate someone who hits all of the "identity politics" hot spots... Abrahams for example or Harris.. or what about a Latina woman - surely there is one qualified... maybe even AOC.

But right now we have a democracy to save, a last shot at saving the environment, a federal judiciary including the SCOTUS to save... we can't F this up.

[KPN]

73. Me ... I think Warren will appeal sufficiently to the midddle and very well to the left.

The middle has to vote for whoever wins the nomination as well. I agree, we can't F this up -- but I don't have the confidence in Biden being our best shot that you obviously do.

Having said that, I will of course vote Joe in the GE should he win the nom, but I genuinely hope he doesn't because I don't buy his unsinkability against tRump. To the contrary actually. Granted it's what my gut tells me, but it's what I felt last time around as well. The country wants change; enough voters want change to make it the principal factor in my view.

[lapfog_1]

75. I don't think voters want change

as much as they want the insanity to stop. If that is change, then yeah, they want change.

I don't think we swing the pendulum from radical right to left of center (getting close to radical left) in one election cycle.

A return to normalcy and decency is what I hear people outside of DU say.

[KPN]

80. Agreed. I think that change as well as a return to

normalcy/decency (both) is going to be the most attractive regarding votes overall. Again, that’s my gut regarding the current electorate.

[treestar]

84. Then Warren should not have two terms

She would be 76 in the second one.

Your declining does not mean EW and JB are declining.

[Voltaire2]

44. That's different.

Because reasons.

[LakeArenal]

5. And up to now " it's too early" for Biden

But it’s not for any other candidate.

Also one poll.... Maybe two if you count the one posted yesterday from MA that has her leading by a thread in her own home state.

That being said, Yes totally gleeful that Biden is consistently ahead aren’t we.

Nothing wrong with that.

[jcgoldie]

6. I believe its too early for this polling to matter much

Regardless of who is in the lead. I do believe it can show encouraging trends for individual candidates. I posted this poll not to gloat that it shows Warren leading among some states were to some extent cherry picked by the timing of their primaries, but to provide a little balance and maybe on some level detract from the perception that Biden is fait accompli based on early national polling.

[LakeArenal]

12. Then why use the word gleeful.

That seemed snarky not informative.

[jcgoldie]

18. Yep

It was snarky. It was harmless. The same folks post the pro-Biden polls daily and the responses are gleeful. The snark goes both ways. Polls like this are immediately cast as "outliers" or media generated "horse races".

I agree none of them mean much at this point about who is gonna win.

[LakeArenal]

21. So you are just snarky like other snarks.

Thanks for clearing that up for us.

[jcgoldie]

24. Glad you enjoyed the poll!

[lapfog_1]

13. I'm not gleeful... I think Biden has the best chance to beat Trump

and Biden will return decency to the White House and respect from world leaders.

Our Allies in the world will quit worrying that we have abandoned them.

Warren might win... but it will be a nail biter if she doesn't get the black or Latino vote turnout.

Plus, I don't think a lot of union members (or white collar corporate workers) want radical change to their health care. Yes, they all like Obama Care and they all want everyone to get basic coverage, but they don't want to give up their hard fought union health care plans.

I don't know why the younger group of contenders didn't catch fire this time around... Harris, Booker, Mayor Pete, Beto, Yang, etc... but for whatever reason, they simply didn't catch fire.

Before this election season started I stated here at DU that I didn't want Biden, Warren, Clinton, or Sanders to run... and only Clinton stayed out. Don't get me wrong, I love Joe... he is one of the most decent people in politics. I supported him in 2008 right up until it was obvious it was going to be Obama or Clinton... and I switched to Obama.

[LakeArenal]

16. You didn't say you were gleeful

You pejoratively said Biden supporters are gleeful.

But you apparently think that gleeful is inappropriate? Beneath you?

[lapfog_1]

22. Grant wasn't gleeful at Appomattox

When the Confederates tried to attack one sector, he ordered the troops to not return fire but to simply part ranks to show just how many troops the Confederates were facing.

When the surrender was signed, Union troops started firing their guns into the air in celebration and Grant ordered them to stop.

When the convention is over, I hope that whoever wins it... tells their supporters to not be gleeful over the misfortune of the other candidates... we all have a bigger orange fish to fry.

[LakeArenal]

26. So sorry. That comment Re: gleeful

Was for the original poster.
My apologies.

[qazplm135]

34. as an AA the idea that you think AA voters wouldn't turn out for WArren

in the general against Trump is beyond laughable.

[lapfog_1]

39. It's not me that thinks that, it is the polling

Warren polls very poorly with minorities.

Show me a poll which says Warren does really well with AA.

[qazplm135]

41. no, she doesn't

she polls poorly IN THE PRIMARY.

AA voters don't hate her, or think poorly of her.

Any GE polling will show she has the same 90 or so percent of AAs as any other Dem candidate.

Stop the nonsense.

[Thekaspervote]

90. I don't see anyone saying the AA voting block "hates" EW.

AA voters stayed home in droves in 2016, which I think should worry anyone. Currently they back Joe Biden by overwhelming numbers and want him to be the nominee

[qazplm135]

94. No they didn't

They voted less than they did for Obama, but they did not stay home "in droves."

[BlueWI]

95. The real problem in 2016 was white voters

voting in droves for Trump.

It would be a different country if white voters weren't propping up the Republican party. Black voters consistently support Democratic nominees, as do liberals. It's everyone else that supplies the Bushes and Trumps of the world with victory margins.

Plus we heard a great deal about Clinton's "black firewall" last election. How did that work out in the GE? No matter who wins, the GE campaign has to improve the ground game from last time. And so far, Warren's actual campaign is gaining momentum through their ground game. Biden's campaign needs to step theirs up, because Iowa and New Hampshire will both be in potential play in November.

[KPN]

56. .... okay.

[Kahuna7]

7. Yougov has always been one of Biden's worse polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[crazytown]

8. This isn't your average YouGov Poll

CBS News survey was taken Aug. 28-Sept. 4, with 16,525 registered voters surveyed in 18 states that will hold early primaries and caucuses. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.8 points.

[Kahuna7]

10. Whatever. It's still one of his worse pollsters. I linked the RCP list of polls.

You can squawk all you want but the fact remains that they consistently poll him lower than other pollsters.

[Thekaspervote]

91. Yes this is the case..those questioning it should take a look a RCP for yourself

Polling averages for Biden on RCP have been very steady for several months now. Biden’s lead today .. that’s the average of all the polls is 11.7%

[vsrazdem]

15. Don't you understand, any poll that doesn't show Biden in the lead is a bad poll.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

76. Seriously!! It's fascinating to see the denial as the Joe-mentum is slowly waning by the day.

Bernie and Elizabeth will join together and be a formidable campaign team putting forward a progressive agenda that will be unstoppable.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. 1.8 MOE?!? That's the lowest I've seen in any poll this cycle

While Biden and Warren are statistically tied, the trend seems to be in Warren's favor, especially if you include recent so-called "outlier" polls which were suppressed/not reported (see separate thread on DU), but now appear to be early signals of this trend.

IMO, this makes the upcoming debates even more important, as it seems more voters are paying attention and engaging in learning about the candidates...

[highplainsdem]

61. This CBS poll has had Warren several points higher than her RCP average since June, at least 3

polls in a row. (I didn't check to see if they released a poll before mid-June.)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287269984

[crazytown]

65. There may be the same bias towards Warren

but this set of state polls, commissioned by CBS, is not comparable to the national poll of 1500 voters YouGov releases each week.

[KPN]

62. I couldn't find Yougov or CBS/Yougov among the data at that site.

Am I missing something?

[Kahuna7]

71. Click the link to expand the list, then do a search for yougov. nt

[KPN]

74. Did that. Got nothiung. I'll try again I guess.

[griffi94]

11. Joe's still the front runner

Warren, however, is gaining ground.
I like the polls as a way to see trends. Who's gaining, who's fading, and who's holding steady.
As predictors of the final outcome....not so much.

[blm]

17. Still too early to say, IMO.

[TCJ70]

23. I hope all the polls start looking like this...

...and better for Warren.

[cilla4progress]

25. When Sanders throws his support to Warren

She will be UBEATABLE!!

[crazytown]

27. Not going to happen.

Bernie has the determination, and the resources to take his campaign all the way to the convention. Bernie's campaign is as much about building his 'political revolution' as winning the nomination.

[Voltaire2]

45. It could very well happen in a second round vote.

[griffi94]

28. Ha That scenario is still a long way out.

However, if Warren continues to gain ground, even slowly, while Biden and Sanders stay more or less
in the same positions, she will start taking votes from both. A large swath of Biden voters only support him because they perceive him as being more electable. If Joe doesn't start pulling away and doubt gets cast on his electability, Warren will peel a lot of those voters off. Should Bernie falter, you have to think that the majority of his supporters would move to Warrens column.

The most interesting and hardest to predict situation would be if Warren were the first of the top 3 to exit. Since her supporters seem to be issues driven, you have to think that most of them would break for Bernie. That's just a guess tho.

[BlueMTexpat]

63. Perhaps I am a pessimist here,

but I believe that a majority of Bernie's supporters who would support Elizabeth Warren are ALREADY supporting her. Perhaps a few more still might move over to support her, but the majority of Bernie's remaining supporters would be fully-committed Berners, who would support NO other Democratic candidate - except perhaps Tulsi Gabbard. And that's still a pretty significant perhaps.

IMO, it's a pipe dream to believe otherwise. The 2016 experience still looms large with me.

But I would LOVE to be wrong.

[griffi94]

69. I'm sure that there are some Bernie Or Bust voters

This is anecdotal but I know some Bernie supporters who are going to support him to the bitter end. If he loses however, they won't vote third party or abstain. I'm looking at the primaries now. I'll start considering the general election when we have a better idea of who our nominee is going to be.

[DCofVA]

31. And... when Warren becomes the Democratic nominee and Biden throws his support to her

She will be unstoppable.

[qazplm135]

35. that's never going to happen

short of her actually winning the nomination.

He's not dropping out unless another candidate has the majority of delegates with SD included.

Otherwise, he's arguing for a contested convention and lobbying SDs.

Only after that's all done and we have a nominee will he endorse that nominee.

So no, he's not throwing his support to her.

[KPN]

66. Yup. But let's hope he does if and when it appears she has him beaten. Frankly, I believe

she will do that.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

77. Could see that... or the other way around. Either way, Bernie & Elizabeth WILL team up...

I've been predicting it for years and that will be the end of Joe's campaign. Progressivism beats moderate incrementalism every time!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[floppyboo]

88. Yes!

[Thekaspervote]

92. Umm no... it doesn't work that way

Here are two links that better explain about voter 2nd choice preferences

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

Here’s another informative look at how little warren and sanders voters have little in common

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548

[efhmc]

29. There is such antipathy toward women in power in our country. It is so ingrained, inborn, and

embedded in our society that I feel it will never change.

[jcgoldie]

30. I agree 100% but...

12 years ago I would have never imagined a black president was possible!

[efhmc]

32. Likewise but then he did have a penis.

And then we didn't get the most qualified person to ever run become president because she didn't have one.

[qazplm135]

36. only because of a fluke of the EC

she got 3 million more votes...that's CLEAR proof that America will elect a woman President.

[Tiggeroshii]

86. Hillary won the popular vote despite being one of the most unpopular politicians to ever run for

president. I somewhat disagree with your statement.

[emmaverybo]

89. We as a country are Just not used to the idea of a woman as the commander-in-chief.

The woman warrior/ queen/ mother of the country/ daughter carrying on dynasty for fallen father figure has not been an archetype as in other countries. Women are just entering combat roles in the military and rising in more numbers through the ranks. Hilary came very, very close.

I think there is not so much an antipathy as a lack of being accustomed to.

It will take an extraordinary woman to break the ceiling, but she will come along.

[Thekaspervote]

93. This!! I am envious when I look at other countries with fe PM or prez. Sadly even Hillary said

She didn’t think the country would elect a woman... yet. IMHO Many are looking past gender to the real concern of another 4 yrs of the dotard and care more about that than any other single issue.

[JenniferJuniper]

33. I do think Warren will be the nominee

I've always felt she would be. I think her chances of beating Trump are the same as anyone else beating Trump. We have the same problems we did the last time though. Voter suppression and Russian attacks and an eff'd up "media".

I think the support for Joe stems from the fact that he's well known, and perhaps most importantly, he's a link to a recent, better past.

I'm supporting Warren because I strongly believe she'd make the best president of anyone running. That's it.

[cilla4progress]

38. I'm with

YOU, JJ! 😅

[efhmc]

48. I don't either. I just pray it is not the not a Democrat.

He can't beat DJT.

[grantcart]

52. +1

[StevieM]

43. Does the 2 percent that Tom Steyer got in Iowa and Nevada get him into the 4th debate?

I understand that he is too late for this upcoming debate, but what about the following one? Doesn't CBS count as an acceptable poll? And do state polls count?

[crazytown]

47. YouGov state polls are not on the list

AFAIK

[highplainsdem]

60. Yes, according to what I read on Twitter earlier. Let me see if I can find any of those tweets:

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[at140]

79. In Tom's mind, he is in!

but not sure if the polls must hold up at time of debate.
In other words newer polls before the debate might wipe out earlier ones.

[treestar]

49. They are only counting certain states

[crazytown]

50. In order to project an early delegate count

[Iliyah]

51. Look at Beto!

[Loki Liesmith]

53. Bit of an outlier but it's fine

[FloridaBlues]

55. According to the article on cbs poll biden still ahead in Iowa and South Carolina

[Quixote1818]

54. Looks like the one outlier last week isn't such an outlier now. Warren ahead now seems to be the

trend.

[Loki Liesmith]

72. Lol no

[Tiggeroshii]

85. LOL

yes

[Quixote1818]

96. Well, there certainly is major momentum for Warren with Biden slowly leaking support

That has to worry Biden. It's also most likely a big reason betting has moved in favor of Warren to win the nomination.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

[highplainsdem]

57. This poll's had Warren several points higher than the RCP average for 3 polls now, since June:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287269984


And even though it's apparently skewed toward Warren, Biden's still way ahead on electability..

[pecosbob]

58. I for one am glad that people are starting to listen to EW

She always reminded me of Harry Truman...kind of what we need right now. No bullsh*t, straight from the hip, destroys politicos and media types trying to push false narratives and talking points in real time.

[Joe941]

67. Doesnt mean much as this point.

[at140]

78. WOW...go Elizabeth Warren!

[Tiggeroshii]

81. Warren is dominating.

Im getting excited.

[Lunabell]

82. This is great news!

trump doesn't stand a chance!

[Kurt V.]

83. biden, more than anyone can afford to lose a few early.

[Tiggeroshii]

87. I think recent history shows that losing enough primaries early on

isn't a good sign one's chances of getting the nomination.