Biden still leads in delegate count in CBS/YouGov Battleground poll, still way ahead on electability

[highplainsdem]

Warren's leading 26% to 25%, with Sanders at 19%, and all others in single digits.

But Biden's delegate count is going up still, even though Warren's is rising faster, in this poll.

The poll found Biden getting 600 delegates to Warren with 545 and Sanders with 286.

Biden had a much wider lead when the respondents were polled on which Democratic candidate "probably would win" next year's general election against Trump.

77% of those polled believe Biden will probably defeat Trump.

That's compared to 58% for Sanders and 55% for Warren.

And Biden's support among black voters is still at 46%, compared to 14% for Sanders and 11% each for Warren and Harris.


Tweet from CNN analyst Harry Enten:

Link to tweet

Keep in mind that YouGov nationally (separate from CBS), fwiw, has tended to be more pro Warren and not as high on Biden as the average poll... IDK how that translates here.

Tweet from TPM's Josh Marshall:

Link to tweet

Ironic subtext here is that Warren and Sanders are being buoyed by strength in all white states of Iowa and new Hampshire.

Harry Enten pointed out that YouGov tends to skew toward Warren.

The CBS/YouGov Battleground Tracker poll has been skewing toward Warren in this and their previous two polls, too.

Their June 16 poll had Warren at 17% when the RCP average had her at 11.2%.

Their July 21 poll had her at 20% when the RCP average had her at 14.6%.

And today they have her at 26% when the RCP average has her at 18%.

[griffi94]

1. The debates have more people paying attention.

Probably the polls will continue to narrow.
As I said in another thread, at this point the polls are probably showing accurate trends. Who's gaining or losing and who's holding steady. I think as predictors of the final outcome they're not much more accurate than the daily horoscope.

[Iliyah]

2. I still believe that VP Biden will win at three of the states . .

I wish Senator Harris, Mayor Pete and Beto were there as well.

[Cha]

3. Josh Marshall.. seems important!

Link to tweet

Thanks,

[highplainsdem]

4. I agree, Cha! I thought he made a good point there.

[Cha]

5. Yes.. and Josh knows a thing or

two about politics!

[highplainsdem]

6. Definitely. TPM wouldn't have been as successful if he didn't.

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. K&R

[Maven]

8. "Electability" isn't a thing. nt

[Scurrilous]

9. ...

[BlueMississippi]

10. k&r nt

[StarfishSaver]

11. Nobody leads in delegate counts because no delegates have been pledged because no one's voted yet

Today, I heard several "experts" proclaiming that the Democratic primary is now essentially "a three person race" and I thought "WTF?"

Did I miss the part where we officially decided to dispense with the campaigns and the primaries and instead select our nominee based on public opinion polls taken four months before a single vote is cast?

[BlueWI]

12. True.

Gabbard and Biden still tied at 0 delegates.

That's why we have primaries.

[Quixote1818]

13. His support is slowly dissolving. That has to be worrisome for him.

It means the closer it gets to voting the less support he seems to have as other candidates have momentum.