Battleground poll with Warren leading Biden by 1% has had her 5-8% over her RCP avg since June

[highplainsdem]

Three CBS/YouGov Battleground polls in a row have now shown Warren with much more support than she's had in the Real Clear Politics average.

Their June 16 poll had Warren at 17% when the RCP average had her at 11.2%.

Their July 21 poll had her at 20% when the RCP average had her at 14.6%.

And today they have her at 26% when the RCP average has her at 18%.


So their polling methods are somehow finding 5% to 8% more support for her than the average of other polls.


I brought this up at the end of another OP about the poll, but since there wasn't room in the subject line to mention this, and the OP sort of buried that info, I wanted to highlight it.

Possible the Battleground poll is somehow more accurate than the RCP average.

Only time will tell.

But it's definitely favoring Warren compared to the other polls.

[crazytown]

1. It's collection of 18 individual state polls, not a national poll.

[highplainsdem]

2. With that many states polled, it makes much more sense to compare it to national polls than any

individual state poll.

[crazytown]

9. PA, OH, MI, WI, IA, IL are out

= the midwest is under represented. The 18 states are not a representative sample of the 50.

[karynnj]

11. It is different than either the national and the individual states

There COULD be differences in the art of states and the national, either because there are demographic or cultural differences or it could be because as the early states, they have been contacted by the campaigns differently.

You could look at the various individual early states polls. From what I have seen Biden leads most of them. However, there are polls that make a Warren Iowa and NH victories possible. If that happens, the other states will be impacted by those wins. Think 2004 and how poorly the national polls in the last half of 2003 predicted 2004. That is very likely the Warren strategy.

[griffi94]

3. Looks like Warren is trending up

Biden and Sanders holding steady.

[highplainsdem]

4. If the poll isn't an outlier, which I'd guess it is.

[griffi94]

5. Oh, so she hasn't been trending up since the debates started?

This is 2 weeks old but I'm watching the trends. Who has the lead at any given moment right now doesn't mean very much.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-two-debates-warren-is-getting-more-popular/

[highplainsdem]

6. She's been slowly climbing in the polls for several months now. But this CBS poll has her several

points higher than the average of the other polls.

If you deduct those points she's just about tied with Sanders, which is where she's been for quite a while now, according to the other polls.

[griffi94]

7. So she is climbing in the polls

As I said back in my first post. I'm watching the trends. Who happens to be ahead in a particular poll on any given day doesn't mean very much right at the moment.

[jcgoldie]

13. Elizabeth is surging

And it seems to be causing a bit of cognitive dissonance among the folks who have been telling us how important early polls are for months...

[griffi94]

16. I like that Warren is trending up

I still don't put much stock in any candidates poll position yet.
The Democratic field is starting to winnow so of course, the numbers are going to change.

I see Warren as having the best potential to grow her support. I was reading an article about which candidates would be a voter's second choice. Biden was a high second choice but not as high as Warren. Sanders was a very low second choice.

I think there's a hard ceiling on Sanders support. Biden is the obvious front runner but a lot of his support is not based on his policy positions, but rather on his electability. If Warren continues to gain on him and the perception of his electability strength is seen as fading, I expect some defections from Biden to Warren.
The first 3 contests are crucial.

[crazytown]

10. It's not a poll.

It is 18 separate polls each of 1000 each. That is a lot of outliers.

Unless YouGov is corrupt, the results should be taken seriously.

[Demsrule86]

12. YouGov is suspect unless you believe the other polls are corrupt...but time will tell.

[Cha]

8. Thanks for your analysis, highplainsdem..

Like you say.. "only time will tell".

[HeartlandProgressive]

14. not very convincing

[Autumn]

15. Her inauguration will be the most exciting in history. Our first woman president.