Democratic Primaries

Skya Rhen

(2,701 posts) Mon Sep 9, 2019, 09:54 PM Sep 2019

* NEW * Morning Consult Poll - Biden 33% (+1), Sanders 21% (+1), Warren 16% (-), Harris 7% (-1)

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

28 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

* NEW * Morning Consult Poll - Biden 33% (+1), Sanders 21% (+1), Warren 16% (-), Harris 7% (-1) (Original Post) Skya Rhen Sep 2019 OP

Looking good 4now Sep 2019 #1

Solid and stable peggysue2 Sep 2019 #2

So the same online panel produces yet another similar poll. Yawn. n/t pnwmom Sep 2019 #3

Good news!! Morning consult lines up with Quinnipiac Suffolk A+ rated polls Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #4

Steady as she goes. LincolnRossiter Sep 2019 #5

Great jif!!...deal with it s right Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #7

Great news! And his lead in the early primary states is one point wider, since both Sanders and highplainsdem Sep 2019 #6

So how good of a poll is it Cha Sep 2019 #11

During the 2016 presidential election, Morning Consult had one of the most accurate national polls Skya Rhen Sep 2019 #12

Mahalo, Skya! Cha Sep 2019 #16

Hi Cha.. 538 rating given for morning consult B- Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #13

Thanks, kasper! Cha Sep 2019 #17

Welcome!! Not a bad rating at all... plus right in line with other A rated polls Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #19

That seems important... Maybe they're upping their Cha Sep 2019 #23

The oxycontin of opinion polls crazytown Sep 2019 #8

Can't lie. I lol'd. LincolnRossiter Sep 2019 #10

Poll rating re 538: B- Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #14

Rated CATC - Cheap as they come crazytown Sep 2019 #15

The difference? Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #20

Do you know how the MC Dem 2020 tracking poll is conducted? crazytown Sep 2019 #22

Yes... I do ... say what you like. You are entitled to your opinion...albeit a negative one Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #26

Can you suggest a lower cost method of conducting a weekly survey? crazytown Sep 2019 #28

Maalox moment for the "gaffe" amplifiers and broadcasters nt BlueMississippi Sep 2019 #9

Biden is holding steady Politicub Sep 2019 #18

Here's an interesting poll I have bookmarked about candidates and 2nd choices Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #21

Thanks for sharing this. It's super interesting! Politicub Sep 2019 #24

Welcome!! Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #27

Ain't no stopping us now. oasis Sep 2019 #25

4now

(1,596 posts)

1. Looking good

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:02 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

peggysue2

(10,825 posts)

2. Solid and stable

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:13 PM

Sep 2019

For Joe Biden, the leader is still the leader. Despite all the negative press and tales of impending doom?

Joe still leads the pack. Resilient.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

pnwmom

(108,959 posts)

3. So the same online panel produces yet another similar poll. Yawn. n/t

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:19 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,715 posts)

4. Good news!! Morning consult lines up with Quinnipiac Suffolk A+ rated polls

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:35 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LincolnRossiter

(560 posts)

5. Steady as she goes.

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:38 PM

Sep 2019

Biden just needs respectable showings in Iowa and NH and he’ll have this thing. Between blue color support in the rust belt and black and Hispanic support in the south and southwest—ain’t no thang.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,715 posts)

7. Great jif!!...deal with it s right

Reply to LincolnRossiter (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:47 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(48,920 posts)

6. Great news! And his lead in the early primary states is one point wider, since both Sanders and

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:38 PM

Sep 2019

Warren have one point less support in that poll.

33 - 20 -15 in that part of the poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(296,875 posts)

11. So how good of a poll is it

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:06 PM

Sep 2019

since I see a couple of posts.. pooh poohing it?

Thanks!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Skya Rhen

(2,701 posts)

12. During the 2016 presidential election, Morning Consult had one of the most accurate national polls

Reply to Cha (Reply #11)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:18 PM

Sep 2019

despite calling the winner of the election incorrectly, it successfully predicted Hillary Clinton winning the national popular vote by 3 percent (she won by 2.1 percent).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morning_Consult

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(296,875 posts)

16. Mahalo, Skya!

Reply to Skya Rhen (Reply #12)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:40 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,715 posts)

13. Hi Cha.. 538 rating given for morning consult B-

Reply to Cha (Reply #11)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:24 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(296,875 posts)

17. Thanks, kasper!

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #13)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:41 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,715 posts)

19. Welcome!! Not a bad rating at all... plus right in line with other A rated polls

Reply to Cha (Reply #17)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:53 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(296,875 posts)

23. That seems important... Maybe they're upping their

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #19)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 12:02 AM

Sep 2019

game?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

8. The oxycontin of opinion polls

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:54 PM

Sep 2019

Cheap smack.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

LincolnRossiter

(560 posts)

10. Can't lie. I lol'd.

Reply to crazytown (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:59 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,715 posts)

14. Poll rating re 538: B-

Reply to crazytown (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:25 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

15. Rated CATC - Cheap as they come

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #14)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:34 PM

Sep 2019

538 ratings are for the pollster, not individual polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,715 posts)

20. The difference?

Reply to crazytown (Reply #15)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:53 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

22. Do you know how the MC Dem 2020 tracking poll is conducted?

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #20)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:57 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,715 posts)

26. Yes... I do ... say what you like. You are entitled to your opinion...albeit a negative one

Reply to crazytown (Reply #22)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 12:21 AM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

28. Can you suggest a lower cost method of conducting a weekly survey?

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #26)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 12:36 AM

Sep 2019

Cheap smack.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

BlueMississippi

(776 posts)

9. Maalox moment for the "gaffe" amplifiers and broadcasters nt

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 10:56 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Politicub

(12,165 posts)

18. Biden is holding steady

Reply to Skya Rhen (Original post)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:51 PM

Sep 2019

It’s clear he has a strong, consistent base of support. It will be interesting to see how this poll shifts as candidates leave the race.

I think the Harris supporters will go to Biden if she doesn’t catch fire once the primaries start.

Warren and Sanders are very different from a personality perspective and approach to governing philosophy. IMHO Yang is more similar to Warren than Sanders is, and I could see the technocrats like Yang and Buttigieg throw their support to Warren.

I don’t have a lot of insight into the Sanders coalition to have an opinion about his supporters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,715 posts)

21. Here's an interesting poll I have bookmarked about candidates and 2nd choices

Reply to Politicub (Reply #18)

Mon Sep 9, 2019, 11:56 PM

Sep 2019

Hope you find it helpful

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%

So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.

And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%