Sanders Fades In New Hampshire

[Gothmog]

This is interesting https://politicalwire.com/2019/09/10/sanders-fades-in-new-hampshire/

A new Emerson poll in New Hampshire finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential race with 24%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21%, Bernie Sanders at 13%, Pete Buttigieg at 11%, Kamala Harris at 8%, Tulsi Gabbard at 6%, Cory Booker at 4%, Andrew Yang at 3% and John Delaney at 3%.

In February, Sanders led the race with 27%.

[brooklynite]

1. Why are you "bashing"???

[Gothmog]

3. These are polling numbers that reflect the current state of the primary process

[honest.abe]

21. I could be wrong but I think brooklynite was being sarcastic.

Regardless its good to see BS fading!

[calimary]

24. Indeed!

[NurseJackie]

4. LOL!

[kstewart33]

34. I never get tired of watching that video.

Thanks for posting.

[George II]

2. At that rate Biden would get 13 delegates, Warren would get 11 delegates, everyone else zero.

[comradebillyboy]

6. That would be very satisfying...nt

[NurseJackie]

5. Without NH and SC... it's over.

He doesn't stand a chance.

[George II]

8. Barring minor district by district differences, here's how the delegates break down as of 9/10....

in the first four states based on RCP averages:

Iowa - Biden 18, Warren 12, Sanders 11
NH - Biden 9, Warren 8, Sanders 7
Nevada - Biden 16, Warren 8, Sanders 12
SC - Biden 54, everyone else zero

Totals:

Biden 97
Warren 28
Sanders 30

[NurseJackie]

9. I seriously doubt that Biden will choose BS to be his running mate.

It will be Warren or Pete... I think... maybe... perhaps...

[onetexan]

10. i don't think so. He'll either choose Beto, Kamala or Buttigieg

any one of those 3 would be great.

[Gothmog]

11. I would add Stacy Abrams to that list

I really like either Stacy Abrams or Senator Harris

[NurseJackie]

12. Yes... someone who would be a strong and natural successor.

Someone who IS a full-time Democrat with full-time loyalty to the party. There's just ONE letter's difference between "is-a" and "as-a" but the difference is significant and meaningful.

[dansolo]

43. What about Amy Klobachar?

She would be an excellent running mate for him.

[NurseJackie]

54. Yes, she certainly would.

[NewJeffCT]

14. I think Abrams or Harris

though, I could see him trying for Castro in Texas

[Jane Austin]

15. Do you think Castro is

a big draw in Texas?

I haven't seen anything that suggests that.

Please show me.

[Gothmog]

19. Beto would be a bigger draw in Texas

The Castro brothers burned some bridges in Texas with the state party in 2018. The party wanted either or both of them to run for statewide races in 2018 and they both declined. The party arranged a series of town halls for Joaquin to try to get him to run for governor and I attended one that was standing room only.

I would love to see a Latino on the ticket. Trump is polling very badly with Latinos in Texas. Beto could put Texas into play even as a VP

Link to tweet

trump is polling poorly with Texas Latino voters

Link to tweet

[onetexan]

36. As a Texan there's nothing i'd love better than for Joe to choose Beto

I think i could drop Buttigieg from the list then, as i mich prefer our guy Beto.

[BlueMississippi]

40. My dream ticket -- Biden-Beto 2020 nt

[onetexan]

44. You got it!

[Green Line]

79. I love that ticket

[ginnyinWI]

23. Of those, I like Beto best, but

I like Amy Klobuchar even more. She's Midwestern, in my next door state of Minnesota and she talks my language.

[Green Line]

80. Agree

[calimary]

26. I was SO impressed watching Beto in the aftermath of the El Paso massacre.

His behavior was downright Presidential. He was strong, poised, comforting, definitely the adult in the room as those poor people were trying to deal with some of the worst trauma that could possibly befall any city anywhere! He was so caring and compassionate, dropped off the campaign trail straight-away to go back to his home town to be a voice of reassurance, strength, genuine concern, and resilience. Not a word about politics - or about himself. Just being there for his city. Classy! Best example of hands-on, feet-on-the-ground leadership in a time of great trouble.

He went WAY up in my estimation.

[Gothmog]

31. Beto is a good man and I was also impressed with his actions after El Paso

I really like Beto and was a first day donor to him. Beto is a truly good man

[Cha]

7. Good to know, Goth..

Thank you

[Gothmog]

51. Hey Cha

[Cha]

59. ..

[trueblue2007]

13. oh bummer

[scheming daemons]

16. Warren is surging. If she finishes top 3 in Iowa and wins NH, she might just win this thing.

[Demsrule86]

17. She is next door to New Hampshire...she should be winning big...and she will lose in areas with AA

vote as she doesn't do well with them.

[scheming daemons]

18. Sanders is right next door too.

The "right next door" vote is being split.

[Demsrule86]

32. Sanders isn't doing well and Vermont is not as close as New Hampshire.

It is New Hampshire...as I said in my last post...people work in Boston and live in New Hampshire...I have to wonder how EW is doing in Mass.

[scheming daemons]

35. Um.... Vermont share a long border with New Hampshire

A much longer border than Massachusetts shares with New Hampshire.

[blm]

52. Heheh

You’ll see. ; )

[DrFunkenstein]

20. Biden Was The VP Of The Most Popular Dem Prez Since Kennedy

He should have the whole thing cleaned up by now.

[Demsrule86]

29. That is not even close to true...apples and oranges...she is from Boston...New Hampshire is next

door...Bostonions often live in New Hampshire and work in Boston (my daughter did). As for Biden having the entire thing cleaned up...I kind of think he does and will be the nominee...appreciate your vote of confidence...and unless EW does better in AA communities and soon,she will not and should not be our nominee.

[Cha]

22. ..

[Gothmog]

25. Both Biden and Yang are doing better in NH compared to sanders

This is interesting. Warren is not beating trump in NH

Link to tweet

BTW, I have a friend is part of the Yang Gang and she got me to like the Yang Gang on face book.

[NurseJackie]

28. Behold!

I'm very pleased to see those numbers. It confirms a lot of what people have been saying all along. Although it's kinda hard to hear the message above the "LA LA LA LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU LA LA LA LA LA!"

[Gothmog]

50. Sanders is behind Yang in this poll

[NurseJackie]

55. The BS campaign is showing cracks. The foundation is crumbling. He cannot win.

[DemocracyMouse]

27. I love Bernie's political-economic insight and dogged determination.

Ironically, the feisty Brooklynite is now competing with other great Americans who have thrown off the yolk of Clintonian "compromise" and say it like it is.

Even Biden has found a strong, progressive, caring voice.

Bernie may not win, but he's been pivotal.

[BlueMississippi]

39. ...

[DemocracyMouse]

42. If you had something intelligent to say, I don't think it came through.

Try again.

[betsuni]

45. It's probably the "thrown off the yolk of Clintonian 'compromise'" that caused the laugh.

What's that?

[BlueMississippi]

47. thank you nt

[betsuni]

49. You are welcome.

[Cha]

57. Crickets?

[betsuni]

60. The yolk is silent.

[LanternWaste]

69. I too, used to pretend support of my candidate is throwing off the yoke.

But after being asked to support my little sentiment with objective evidence and hard date, I realized all I had was a vapid bumper sticker.

No doubt, you'll justify your own lack of evidence and data with a very creative rationalization.

[DemocracyMouse]

72. Why is the notion of "cultural change" so difficult to comprehend?

Bernie has helped to change the culture and the discourse so folks like Biden and Warren can effectively advocate for, and push through, legislative change knowing the public will support them.

The workd is not black and white. Votes aren't gotten through addition, but through a complex cultural calculus.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

78. Yolk?

Do you have to separate the yolk before you can throw it off?

[RobertDevereaux]

30. This is Emerson today, but...

The CBS poll for the NH primary published two days ago tells a different story:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

Warren 27, Biden 26, Sanders 25.

[BlueMississippi]

48. Yeah -- that was good for self-consolation

in some quarters

[myohmy2]

33. not to worry...

Washington Post, 9-8-2019,

" Former vice president Joe Biden holds a modest lead in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination, bolstered by his personal appeal and current perceptions among Democratic voters that he has the best chance of defeating President Trump in the 2020 general election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The Democratic race, once involving two dozen contestants, shows Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) forming the top tier of candidates. They are the only candidates whose support registers in double digits. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-ahead-in-democratic-race-with-sens-bernie-sanders-and-elizabeth-warren-also-forming-the-top-tier/2019/09/07/0bdba9fa-d0cc-11e9-87fa-8501a456c003_story.html
.................................


"...bolstered by his personal appeal and current perceptions..."

...appeal and perceptions can change...we have a long way to go...


https://berniesanders.com/issues/

...hang in there...

[BlueMississippi]

38. BS has very little appeal

and perceptions about him have been concretized since 2016.

BS has no chance of getting the nomination. Zero.

[BlueMississippi]

37. "Sanders Fades" is music to

the real Democrats' ears.

[Gothmog]

75. You will like these numbers

Link to tweet

[BlueMississippi]

76. I do!! Thanks

[NYMinute]

41. BS is old news ... and boring

it is over for BS

[oasis]

46. I'm liking it. nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

53. YES! YES! YES!

[Joe941]

56. A Bernie hit piece.

[NurseJackie]

63. Oh, please. No it's not.

It's just bad news. And things are going to get worse for him as time goes on. Brace yourselves.

[Cha]

58. It's a poll.

[Gothmog]

61. Why Bernie is Stalled

This is an interesting article https://theweek.com/articles-amp/862766/why-bernie-stalled?__twitter_impression=true

While he was averaging around 24 percent at the time, Sanders has dropped to just over 16. He did fine in the first two debates, but didn't get a bounce of out them. And it's getting increasingly tough to dispute that he's at least been caught, if not passed, by Warren.

It's impossible to pinpoint the origin of these troubles, but some of his personnel decisions might help explain them. In March, his campaign announced that it had hired as his speechwriter the firebrand progressive journalist David Sirota, who days before the 2012 election wrote that it didn't matter whether Mitt Romney or Barack Obama appointed the next Supreme Court justice. Sirota's public record of Obama-hating actually stretches back more than a decade and bringing him on board indicated that Sanders privately shares his distaste for the former president, who remains wildly popular with Democratic voters.

While most people are blissfully unaware of these kinds of campaign machinations and couldn't care less who writes anyone's oratories, Sanders was still placing one of the most important posts of campaign into the hands of someone who loathes the Democratic Party. And whatever you may or may not think of Sirota, this was an enormous strategic misstep. Whereas Warren has run an above-the-fray campaign in which she rarely criticizes the other candidates directly and doesn't waste time warring with the press or feuding with the Center For American Progress, Sirota has repeatedly plunged his candidate into internecine battles with other camps and continued Sanders' self-destructive fixation on media unfairness.....

That's why hiring journalist and former contributor to this site Briahna Joy Gray, who publicly announced on Twitter that she voted third-party in 2016, was another curious choice. It is why the decision to allow actress and Ralph Nader/Jill Stein enthusiast Susan Sarandon to introduce him at campaign events in Iowa is so mind-boggling. Sarandon is near the top of a short list of people who cause the heads of Clinton diehards to explode. And hey, maybe you hate Clinton and Clintonism and Clinton voters, but this remains a not-winning strategy in a Democratic primary in which you need to persuade a certain number of them to join your team.

[betsuni]

62. Sanders put his campaign "into the hands of someone who loathes the Democratic Party."

He has created a world of Us and Them and we are the Them.

[Gothmog]

64. This is interesting

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

65. Top adviser Ehrenberg parts ways with Sanders campaign after 'fundamental disagreements' on strategy

Link to tweet

While the Caiazzo transfer may have received national headlines, to Granite Staters who are fans of Sanders – and to many state political activists in general – Ehrenberg’s departure was a shock.

In an interview, Ehrenberg, who has been involved in New Hampshire politics for about three decades, told WMUR: “From the very beginning of this campaign, the state director (Caiazzo) and I had fundamental and very strong disagreements about how to wage a successful New Hampshire primary campaign.

“After months of discussion between me and key people in the campaign, it became clear that we could not agree, and within the last couple of days we agreed that I would no longer be part of the campaign. As of the end of the month, I will no longer be advising Bernie Sanders on campaign strategy.”

[Amimnoch]

66. Good news! -nt

[Quixote1818]

67. Interesting, here is a poll released a day later with Sanders in a big lead and Biden in 3rd

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/11/sanders-poll-leads-new-hampshire-1491025

Not to mention betting odds don't look good for Biden at all in NH: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5344/Who-will-win-the-2020-New-Hampshire-Democratic-primary

[Gothmog]

68. Sanders campaign wracked by dissension

From the daughter of one of DU's posters

Link to tweet

Some of Bernie Sanders’ fiercest supporters are sounding the alarm that the campaign is bogged down by disorganization, personality clashes, and poor communication between state operations and national headquarters.

After a pair of setbacks this week — the acrimonious shakeup of his staff in New Hampshire on Sunday and loss of the Working Families Party's endorsement to Elizabeth Warren a day later — Sanders’ allies and former aides are worried that recent disappointments are not one-off stumbles but rather emblematic of larger problems in his bid for the White House. The concerns are particularly acute in New Hampshire.

“Seeing the campaign not be able to outshine Warren with WFP progressives doesn’t have me questioning WFP’s process,” said Rafael Shimunov, a former national creative director for WFP and 2016 Sanders volunteer. “It has me questioning where the Bernie campaign could have done better, because I want to make sure the strongest candidate unmasks Biden and unseats Trump.”

The worries come as the campaign enters a critical, more urgent phase. After Labor Day, more voters typically tune into the election and begin to make up their minds. Expectations for Sanders are sky-high, especially in New Hampshire, where he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 22 percentage points.

[peggysue2]

70. Well, this poll at least would explain . . .

the news on Sunday that Sanders was reorganizing and shaking up his New Hampshire campaign staff. Might be that the internal polls the Sanders' people are getting indicate the same slide in the numbers.

[GulfCoast66]

71. Iowa. New Hampshire. It might be tight. But then we turn South.

We all know what is going to happen here. Most likely. Warren could surprise. Bernie. Not so much.

[Gothmog]

73. Is it ironic that the request not to leak is being leaked?

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

74. From the Hoarse Whisperer

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

77. Bernie Sanders Is in Trouble

Link to tweet

With just four months until the first-in-the-nation caucuses, Sanders is in trouble. As he delivered his populist gospel to large crowds of camouflage-clad high schoolers, liberal arts college students, and trade union members across Iowa last week, a problematic narrative was hardening around him: His campaign is in disarray and Elizabeth Warren has eclipsed him as the progressive standard-bearer of the primary. He’s sunk to third place nationally, behind Warren and Joe Biden, and some polls of early nomination states show him barely clinging to double digits. He’s shaken up his staffs in Iowa and New Hampshire. He’s lost the endorsement of the Working Families Party, a left-wing group that backed him in 2016, to Warren.