New CNN poll: Biden 24%, Warren 18%, Sanders 17%, Harris 8%, Buttigieg 6%, O'Rourke 5%,

[highplainsdem]

all others 2% or less

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/11/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-renominate-trump/index.html

Biden's lead rests on his support among black voters, among whom he leads by a wide margin with 42% backing him and his nearest competitor -- Sanders -- earning just 12% support. Warren (23%) and Biden (21%) are about even among white potential Democratic voters, with Sanders not far behind at 15%. Among Hispanics who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, Sanders stands at 24%, with four other candidates in double-digits: Biden at 18%, O'Rourke at 14%, and Warren and Harris each at 10%.

Biden's backing among black voters comes primarily among those over age 50 (53% in that group support him vs. 30% among those under age 50) and from those who are moderate or conservative (47% in that group support him). That mirrors the pattern among Democrats more generally, but holds to a greater degree among black voters. Sanders' strong showing among Latinos comes more from younger Hispanic voters than from older ones.

Warren's support notably spikes among college educated voters -- 26% in that group back her vs. just 11% of those without degrees. Sanders, whose ideological views are similar to Warren's, doesn't have as much of an education gap in his support (19% among those without degrees, 13% among those with), largely due to his stronger support among whites without college degrees (21% vs. 10% among those who do hold degrees).

As they have in past polls, Democrats are more apt to say they want the party to nominate a candidate with a strong chance of beating Trump (55%) over one who shares their position on major issues (39%). But Biden's advantage among those who want a candidate who can defeat the President has shrunk some since August. In that poll, 35% of those who favored someone who can beat Trump backed Biden, 15% Warren and 14% Sanders. Now, that group splits almost evenly between Biden (26%) and Warren (21%), with Sanders at 11%.

Democratic voters are narrowly more concerned that the party will nominate a candidate who is too liberal (49%) vs. one who is not liberal enough (41%). Biden fares better among those worried the party will lean too far left (27% in that group back him, 15% Sanders, 13% Warren) than among those who are worried the nominee won't be liberal enough (27% in that group favor Warren, 22% Sanders and 20% Biden).

Complete poll details here:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/11/rel10b.-.2020.pdf

[bluewater]

1. huh, guess that Monmouth Poll wasn't THAT much of an outlier afterall...

Just goes to show.

CNN Poll has Biden at 24% woah....

Warren at 18%, Sanders at 17%...

And this was a LIVE CALLER poll too....

Not THAT far off the LIVE CALLER Monmouth Poll, eh?

[highplainsdem]

5. Yes, it was. That poll had Biden a point behind both Warren and Sanders. This poll has him 6-7

points ahead. Even though it's one of his weaker polls lately.

The new ABC poll, which is A+ rated (this is A-), has him 10 points ahead among registered voters.

[bluewater]

8. Shows how fragile a front runner Biden actually is.

woah, 24% support sure makes Biden a fragile frontrunner... and right before the next debate...

The tide seems to have turned, the more voters see of Biden the lower his support drops...

He's going to basically be right back to where he was when he announced his campaign on April 25th, in the 29% support range... and dropping...

[DrToast]

19. Hey where's your thread about the RCP average?

You seemed to think it was important when Biden’s lead was down to 8%.

Now? Not so important?

[bluewater]

24. Biden RCP Average support is BELOW where he was on April 25th...

Once this CNN Poll with Biden at just 24% support is added in, his RCP Polling Average will be 28.1%.

That will be BELOW the 29.3% average support he was at on April 25th, the day he announced his candidacy.

This is why so many people say that Biden is a fragile frontrunner. He is failing to gain support.



The polling AVERAGE is what the polling AVERAGE is.

[DrToast]

25. So you won't be posting a thread calling out the RCP average?

You seemed to think it was important when Biden’s lead narrowed to 8%.

I guess it’s not important to you anymore. Must be that “confirmational bias.”

[bluewater]

28. Posting here that Biden's RCP Average is falling below 29% wasn't enough?

lol

Ok...

The polling AVERAGE is what the polling AVERAGE is.

And try as one might, I don't think anyone can convince me that polling BELOW where he was on April 25th is a good thing for Joe Biden.



According to RCP Polls, Biden's AVERAGE support is now down to 28.1%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[bluewater]

44. RCP POllS UPDATE: Biden DOWN to 26.8% on 9/12/2019

That's incredibly low, and right before tonight's debate too.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Also, Biden , once again, no longer has a double digit lead, he's back down to +9.5, which sounds good until you see that his next two rivals combined have a support total of 34% to Biden's 26.8%. Biden, as recently as last month, used to have 2% MORE support than Warren and Sanders combined. This is why many people consider Biden a very fragile frontrunner.

[DownriverDem]

36. Not really

It's also about building coalitions which Biden has done and his support runs deep. Look. Beating trump is all that matters. I can see Biden picking a strong, progressive, Dem woman as VP which would be formidable.

[DrToast]

6. When even the pollster calls a poll an outlier and some still can't accept it

Do you want a black sharpie? Maybe you could scribble “Monmouth - Not an outlier” on every poll you like.

[bluewater]

20. Biden 24%... Warren 18%, Sanders 17%...

hmmm

Suspiciously similar to the Monmouth Poll, eh? Hey, the pollster said it "appears" to be an outlier, but stood by their methodology. Now a major LIVE CALLER CNN polls shows results in the same ballpark..

The Monmouth poll had Biden at 19%, Warren at 20% and Sanders at 20%. Pretty damn similar to this latest CNN LIVE CALLER Poll, don't you think?

So was it REALLY an outlier? Or just a harbinger of polls to come?

[LanternWaste]

45. No evidence it's a harbinger.

So we presume that yes, it's an outlier... unless of course, we simply desire bias confirmation over data and objective analysis-- at which point we can call it any damn thing we want it to be, an outlier, a hunk of green cheese, the second coming, you name it.

[bluewater]

48. Is it a harbinger? RCP Polls says maybe: Biden DOWN to 26.8% on 9/12/2019

RCP POLLS AVERAGE support: Biden DOWN to 26.8% on 9/12/2019

That's incredibly low, and right before tonight's debate too.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Also, Biden , once again, no longer has a double digit lead, he's back down to +9.5, which sounds good until you see that his next two rivals combined have a support total of 34% to Biden's 26.8%. Biden, as recently as last month, used to have 2% MORE support than Warren and Sanders combined.

This is why many people consider Biden a very fragile frontrunner.

Woah, Biden is just 0.8% away from his lowest ever level of support, which occurred right after the first debate.

Sure seems like he is fading....

[liskddksil]

2. Watch out front-runners. Beto is surging nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. K&R

[bluewater]

4. Let's all celebrate Biden at 24% in a major CNN live caller Poll!

Wow, he dropped 5% IN THE LAST 3 WEEKS from the previous CNN Poll.

[bearsfootball516]

7. "Let's all celebrate"?

I have no problem with supporters of other candidates being happy if the gap between Biden and their candidate is closing, but saying that we should all celebrate the current frontrunner falling a few points in a poll followed by a bunch of celebration emojis is mean-spirited.

[bluewater]

9. A few points? 5% in 3 weeks....

And hey, it was a Biden supporter that K&R the OP, so obviously many people are happy that Biden is now at 24% support in a major live caller poll.



So lets all celebrate!

[highplainsdem]

11. He was at 22% in their poll in July, and bounced back to 29% last month.

[bluewater]

13. Fragile front runner failing to gain support?

So you are saying he's been in the low 20's before? Ok... Thanks for pointing out that the CNN live caller polls have had Biden at 22%, 29% and now 24% in their last 3 polls.

Why that's just 25% on average for the CNN live caller Polls. Wow, I didn't realize he's been that low for so long.

All those online "internet panel" polls, like MorningConsult and HarrisX, always have Biden at 33%.

Just goes to show how different LIVE CALLER polls to randomly selected voters can be from "internet panel" polls, eh?

[LanternWaste]

46. The fragile second and third tier candidates are even more fragile. By definition.

I get it... we'll pretend 'fragile' is an accurate descriptor. Who knows? Maybe two or three second graders will be persuaded by the melodramatic usage.

We'll continue to discount polls that don't validate our biases, and inaccurately infer data from all the other polls and pretend strength is fragility, second- and third-tier candidates are front-runners, and that chocolate rations will increase for a seventh straight month. It's human nature.

And you're a very, very good human.

Shrug, indeed...

[bluewater]

49. Thing is Warren and Sanders have been rising in the polls, Biden has been falling...

That's why Biden is a fragile frontrunner.

Anyone can see the trend for themselves at RCP POLLS

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Sorry, but I just can't see how Biden losing support, down to 26.8% AVERAGE polling now, is a good thing for Joe.



Shrug, indeed, eh?

[bearsfootball516]

16. I don't think it's really worth engaging with bluewater anymore about it.

The poster's obvious glee with potential fading of the current front runner and candidate that polls best against Trump by far, tells us all we need to know about that person.

[highplainsdem]

18. You're right. Bluewater's obvious glee speaks for itself.

[bluewater]

21. ...

[LanternWaste]

47. If only the violin were in tune.

As it stands, it's shrill and discordant notes, turns an otherwise professionally sounding orchestra into just another bogus analysis of data.

[bluewater]

30. Why wouldn't supporters of other candidates be happy that Biden is fading?

What, we can't be happy that our candidates are catching up in the primary race?

For god's sake it's call the Democratic Primary for a reason, Democrats are competing to get the Democratic 2020 nomination.

Are we all supposed to anoint the frontrunner 5 months before voting even starts?

[emmaverybo]

31. +1000

[highplainsdem]

14. Btw, take a look at the recent GE polls, where Biden crushes Trump by as much as 15 points,

and the other candidates don't do as well.

[highplainsdem]

10. Not just mean-spirited, but foolish when none of Biden's weaker rivals have shown any ability to

surpass him.

Biden's doing amazingly well given all the attacks on him.

And unless you want to lose to Trump, it's not a good idea to celebrate circular firing squads and weakened front-runners.

[bluewater]

12. All the leading Democrats can beat Trump.

Biden told us so himself.

[BeyondGeography]

15. His finest moment on the trail IMHO

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

22. BIDEN: There's other people in the race who can beat Trump.

BIDEN: There’s other people in the race who can beat Trump.

CAPEHART: Who?

BIDEN: Well, I think almost anybody.

When he's right, he's right!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

37. Without a doubt bluewater... those who support Joe & claim only he can beat tRump are disagreeing

with their own candidate... too funny!! Joe is politically astute and to suggest otherwise is just plain wrong.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[highplainsdem]

17. Biden's very gracious. The polls aren't always as kind to his rivals. Including the NH poll where

Warren is the only Democratic candidate who loses to Trump.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/460759-poll-all-2020-democrats-but-warren-beat-trump-in-new-hampshire


In general, Biden does better than all the other candidates in GE polls against Trump.

He's our strongest candidate.

But hey, if you want to celebrate weakening our front-runner, if that's what you consider a good idea, go right ahead.

[Tarheel_Dem]

27. "The polls are what the polls are". And thank Jeebus Biden still leads.

[DownriverDem]

38. All I care about

is beating trump. I believe Biden is our best chance to win the Electoral College which means state by state. He has built a country wide coalition and his support runs deep. Beating trump is all that matters.

[Skya Rhen]

23. Go, Joe! Follow the leader!

[BlueMississippi]

26. Go Joe!!!! nt

[Tiggeroshii]

29. He used to have a regular lead by at least 15 points on average.

Now it is almost consistently below 8%. Do not tell me it isnt tightening.

[DownriverDem]

39. Your comment

seems negative to me. I'm focusing on beating trump. I'm not attacking the other candidates. I'm not against Warren. Besides, those polls are national. The Electoral College is state by state.

[Tiggeroshii]

41. My comment is realistic

Biden is not the surefire candidate and he is not the end all say all candidate to beat trump. In fact each candidate right now has at least a 10 point lead against him. But Biden is not the sure candidate to be nominated and the polls showing his tightening lead supports that.

[Cha]

32. Thanks for the poll, highplainsdem!

[oasis]

33. Solid. nt

[qazplm135]

35. so let's do this again everyone

1. The polling average is all that matters. Individual polls just get added to the pile.
2. It's still early, so polling gives you limited info at best
3. You don't look for movement across separate polls, only the same poll.
4. NOTHING has happened much in the last 2-3 weeks to make any groups of voters of any size to move from one candidate to another. So, if someone is 3 pts up or 2 pts down, it's more likely to be statistical noise than actual movement.

Thus, the next event likely to cause an impact comes tomorrow night. The polling will take at least a few days to begin to reflect whatever fallout (if any) from that event. And it will take at least a couple of weeks for polling averages to reflect that.

So:

1. Polls right now don't mean much except MAYBE as a baseline for post the next debate.
2. People are just now starting to pay attention.
3. You are only going to be able to tell broad strokes from polling until we get very close to Iowa when you can probably have a clearer idea (and yet if you'd asked most folks based on polling close to Iowa in 2008 and 2016, Hillary wins Iowa...and she wins comfortably in 2016 and neither of those things happened).

[DownriverDem]

40. Come on

The Electoral College is state by state. These are national polls. I will say though that Biden has built a diverse coalition and his support runs deep.

[qazplm135]

43. thanks for reminding me

another limitation of these polls.

No one has built much of anything yet. We will see who has built what during the primaries.

Biden has AAs and old people. Warren has the educated. Bernie has the young people and young POC.

But that could all change in a few months. Biden could pick up more groups...or he could lose them.
Bernie could lose voters to Warren or steal them from Biden.


And as you note, state by state is what matters, and if one candidate wins both NH and Iowa, that's going to get them a second look by voters in Nevada and SC.