Nate Silver: A lot of Democrats are closer to Biden than Warren/Sanders *on the issues*

[highplainsdem]

Link to tweet

One thing I don't think people get is that a lot of Democrats are closer to Biden than Warren/Sanders *on the issues*. Even among Democrats, slightly more voters are worried that the party will nominate someone too liberal than someone not liberal enough.
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/11/rel10b.-.2020.pdf …

[calguy]

1. Raising my hand

I'm one of those democrats Nate is talking about.

[5starlib]

7. Shhh...don't say that here

You'll get labeled a Republican.

[RandiFan1290]

29. Welcome Back to DU!

[True Blue American]

38. So am I!

Moderate Democrat!

[TheRealNorth]

51. I am a liberal Democrat who voted for Hillary in 2016 and was leaning toward Biden in the primary

But all the Biden people coming out and slamming liberal Democrats has me rethinking that.

[calguy]

54. If that's the sole basis for re-thinking your support for a candidate

you might want to re think your thinking process. Maybe it's just me, but I choose my favorite candidate based on his or her experience and positions on various issues. No way would I or should I ever choose a candidate based on what others say on a discussion board.

[Gothmog]

2. I am far closer to Biden than Warren or sanders

[madville]

3. This is why Joe has a great advantage

Just about everyone below Biden now wants to prove how "liberal" or "progressive" they are while Joe has the space a little closer to the middle almost all to himself at this point. Warren and Sanders staying in as long as they possibly can will ensure a Biden victory.

[Cha]

6. Good analysis.. Thanks

madville!

[Thekaspervote]

8. This!!

[emmaverybo]

15. Biden's policies make sense and are doable. He is focusing on some big, priority issues along

with what will be first orders of business—rolling back the tax cuts, getting back into climate accords, restoring our alliances, protecting Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Making Obamacare work as was intended. He is in line with the majority of the Dem party.

[True Blue American]

39. Pretty much what Obama

Had to do.

BTW, I also see a recession coming. Same as Obama!

[napi21]

26. My dream ticket is Biden/Warren.

Biden can get votes from the left, right & center, and Warren would keep him thinking forward. Plus, it would gain the votes of many of the JA's that couldn't vote for a woman for President.

[True Blue American]

40. I do agree!

One to clean up the Republican mess, the other to work hard on turning it around for the middle class.

[IronLionZion]

49. That could be a great ticket since Warren is the big planner

Kamala could be a good Attorney General

[onetexan]

27. I think re: the staying in part may be applicable to Elizabeth, sanders not so much

He's out to get himself elected

[thesquanderer]

33. Sanders & Warren are both staying in to try to win.

The post you replied to was suggesting that, the longer they both stay in, the better it is for Joe, not that they are staying in for the purpose of helping Joe.

[onetexan]

45. Yes but once its clear Joe is the clear front runner Elizabeth will bow out

Bernie will cry fowl saying it was rigged, etc like he did last time.

[TheRealNorth]

4. Whats the "cdn" in front of the CNN link mean?

I did a search on the CNN website and 538 and can't find it?

I don't click on pdf links since I have seen foreign actors using pdf's to spread computer worms/viruses.

[highplainsdem]

5. That's the link for the PDF file of complete poll results given in CNN's main story about it.

Nate Silver was just linking directly to that

Here's the link to the main CNN story:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/11/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-renominate-trump/index.html

After the first two paragraphs there you'll see Related: Full poll results. That's the link Silver was using.

[mwooldri]

20. Content Delivery Network.

Basically an address for mirror servers so that data is served quicker.

[BeyondGeography]

9. One says potato, one says potahto

t

[BlueMTexpat]

55. Exactly.

Too much damage has been done to our country and our institutions simply to return to the status quo ante Trump.

I also recall the 1990s when mainstream Dems moved too much towards GOPer philosophy. Then Bush II really messed things up.

Prez Obama had to work like mad to get us anywhere close to normal again - and he was not helped by Mitch McConnell at all. "Moderate" Dems of the Rahm Emanuel ilk were also not helpful, e.g., they were instrumental in keeping the public option off the table and keeping Howard Dean out of HHS.

I truly fear that equivocation happening again.

We need a fighter! That is why I prefer Elizabeth Warren.

[BeyondGeography]

57. The economy is so out of whack

even the Business Roundtable is signaling they’re ready for change. Opportunity is staring us in the face but it will take guts and commitment to make the most of it. Warren fits the moment.

[Desert grandma]

10. I am one of those Dems too!

Been a Democrat all my voting life which is a long time. Hubby and I both support Biden because we are closer to most of his views on the issues than Warren or Sanders. And we vote. In every election.

[mr_liberal]

11. This vaping issue is a landmine for Biden and all the Democrats

in the upcoming debate. I know if Biden comes out for a ban it's going to be a huge turnoff for me, and I assume a lot of voters. I don't think Democrats understand how potent this issue is, especially for young voters.

Luckily Trump is just as bad, but this is an issue that calls for a measured response at least and to not come off like a authoritarian drug warrior.

[Scurrilous]

12. ...

[JI7]

13. Warren has unfairly been tied to Sanders. most of her supporters are educated women

who consider themselves to be mainstream Democrats.

but they have actually listened to her.

[True Blue American]

41. Once again

Agree 100%!

[peggysue2]

14. Yes!!

Silver's tweet aligns with what we already know: The largest sector of the Democratic Party resides in the slightly liberal/moderate/conservative sector, the very lane that Biden chose and now holds. And the electability factor--though pooh-poohed by many on the left and the media--is still considered important by the electorate. In fact, I read today that 58% of voters want a candidate they perceive can wallop Trump as opposed to policy considerations they may prefer. Despite all the yammering, Joe Biden's positions are more progressive than he's given credit for, more progressive than Hillary Clinton's were when the Democratic platform was hailed as the most progressive in the last 40 years.

We shall see. I still think this is going to come down to Biden vs Warren. And ultimately? I believe Joe Biden will be our nominee and then he'll send Donald Trump and his criminal enterprise to hell. Where they belong!

[emmaverybo]

16. +1000

[BlueTsunami2018]

17. Yes, only the right has no limit to how far they can go.

It’s fucked up but that’s the truth. No one ever claims they’re going too far right.

But when people hear that their good healthcare will be taken away for some unknown, that we want to decriminalize the border, let prisoners vote and things like that, it scares the shit out of them. You have to get people to these places incrementally. This isn’t a big radical change election, this is a return to normality election.

[NNadir]

18. Of course, whatever Nate Silver thinks does not compel anyone else to think accordingly.

I rather object to deciding the nominee based on pundit opinion, even pundit/pollster's opinion.

I'm not entirely convinced that Nate Silver is equipped to fully decide what Democrats as a whole think. For instance, he didn't ask me.

As it happens, I have no vote in who the party chooses, since I live in New Jersey and the candidate will be more or less decided before we have a primary here, but still...

...If we were to choose our candidates by acclamation, we would no longer need to hold primaries/elections since we would have big "informed" guys to decide for us, wouldn't we?

I am decidedly not entirely comfortable with all of the positions that my preferred candidate holds, but I am rather impressed by her way of doing business, which is, by the way, not involved with smoke filled rooms or the modern day equivalent.

[Gothmog]

19. NEW POLL: Biden's health care proposal more popular than Medicare for All

Link to tweet

A new poll finds that more voters favor an optional government-run health insurance plan, as former Vice President Joe Biden advocates, than full-scale "Medicare for All" that eliminates private health insurance, as advocated by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

The poll could give credence to Biden's argument against his main two rivals in the Democratic White House race, Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), that an optional plan is more popular in a general election than the full-scale Medicare for All that Sanders and Warren advocate.

The USC/Los Angeles Times poll finds that 48 percent of eligible voters surveyed support giving everyone the option of a government-run health insurance plan, compared to just 14 percent who oppose it. Thirty-eight percent had not heard enough to have an opinion.

The full-scale Medicare for All, which eliminates private health insurance, polls somewhat worse. That proposal gets 39 percent support to 34 percent opposition.

[mwooldri]

21. And why I wouldn't support Biden in the primary.

Health Care is a big issue for me.

Medicare for All ensures everyone gets health insurance coverage. Biden and his ACA 2.0 leaves people behind. His plan covers 97%. The Sanders and Warren Medicare for All plans cover 100%.

Being a British ex-pat, America's patchwork system of health care has just confused me. The NHS is simpler - you're sick, you call the doctor, you see the doctor, you get a prescription, the prescription gets filled and you go home and rest. No doctor copay. Small copay for medicine in England, and exemptions available. My wife (US Citizen, not on NHS) had to see the doctor in England and the doctor's office did not know what to charge her for a doctor's visit. I believe we agreed to pay £20....

Going to Medicare for All from our present system will be a big change. However if the USA can put a human on the moon and bring them back safely then shouldn't the USA be able to have health care for all?

[napi21]

28. Medicare does't cover a lot of treatments and Docs are paid a misderably low rate.

None of the candidates have elaborated on just what their Medicare for All would cover. IMO unless the current program is not changed it may not be the HC system that you want.

[thesquanderer]

34. MFA covers more than today's Medicare coverage, and candidates HAVE elaborated on it.

see https://www.factcheck.org/2019/04/the-facts-on-medicare-for-all/

[True Blue American]

44. Just like the ACA

First they have to strengthen that. Then go to the next step!

Who is hosting the debate tonight? Can not find it on the TV guide.

[highplainsdem]

46. ABC, at 8 EDT.

[True Blue American]

47. Thanks!

I had to google for a friend.

[highplainsdem]

48. You're welcome! And this might help:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287273878

[yaesu]

22. thanks for the laugh, TOO LIBERAL

Sounds like something a republican would say, oh wait, Silver is a repug.

[betsuni]

23. Silver is not a Republican.

[Cha]

25. I would like to see proof of your accusation that

Nate Silver is a "repug".

[LanternWaste]

50. Silver? Or your post? Given lack of context, confusing to determine.

"Sounds like something a republican would say..."

[BlueMississippi]

24. Great analysis

[Amimnoch]

30. Biden supporter, but not my own cause for being.

When I’m looking a the primaries for my senators and representative, I care a LOT about issues.

For the President, not quite as much. Bills that are passed into law make positions happen. Congress writes the laws, the president only has one role.. yes or Veto.

As just one hot position example, MFA or enhanced ACA? It doesn’t matter what the president is for. What matters is what Congress passes. For the POTUS, what matters to me is that it’s someone that I can rely to pass any hard fought for laws that pass congress that does move our agenda forward. I trust Warren 100% to do so. I trust Biden to do so. Bernie, not so much.

[betsuni]

31. +1

[MFM008]

32. Right now i support Warren

But if Bidens the nominee he will get my vote.
Plus im sure her or Kamala will be on the ticket.

[4139]

35. "Democratic-leaning independents" are independents.... shame on Nate!

He is not that stupid, he’s being a weasel con

[TwilightZone]

53. Most independents already lean one way or the other.

They just don't make it official for various reasons. The percentage of voters who are truly non-partisan is pretty small, generally in the single digits.

Democratic-leaning independents are an important part of our voting bloc. We won't win any national elections without them. Some of them are more reliable Democratic voters than a lot of self-professed liberals/progressives, such as those who supported Jill Stein in 2016.

[thesquanderer]

36. Bad tweet. The two sentences are not necessarily related.

The fact that more Dems worry that we may nominate someone too far left does NOT mean that they agree more with Biden on the issues. It could also mean they agree more with Warren/Sanders on the issues, but are less confident that those positions will win in the general election.

Which isn't to say that a lot of Dems are closer to Biden on the issues... of course there are a lot who are, and a lot who aren't. But the poll question referenced does not necessarily correlate with how many there are of each.

[SKKY]

37. He's not wrong. Based on the Democrats I have around me...

...and my own personal beliefs, I think Silver is probably spot on.

[ecstatic]

42. That's odd that people wouldn't get that

considering how the 2016 primaries went (Hillary beat Sanders by millions of votes).

You could say I'm an Obama (Biden) Democrat. Biden is the only candidate who seems to be able to connect with people (from all races and backgrounds) on an emotional level. I am probably more aligned with Biden's platform than Warren's.

That being said, Warren won me over with her clear stance on impeachment. She has kept me by demonstrating that she is prepared, thoughtful, and constantly seeking out new information regarding problems and potential solutions. I love that!

[NYMinute]

43. K&R

[Tarheel_Dem]

52. K&R

[DrFunkenstein]

56. Lots of People LIKE Wall Street Execs, Lobbyists, Deregulated Housing Markets, Etc.

It's all these long-haired hippies with their free love and dancing that want to stop the rotating door between K Street and our elected representatives.

Not on my watch, beatniks!

[Gothmog]

58. Warren and Sanders say Americans don't like their health insurance. Polls don't back that up.

Link to tweet