WARREN SURGES TO TOP OF DEMOCRATIC FAVORABILITY RATINGS, CHALLENGING COMPLAINTS ABOUT ELECTABILITY

[JaneQPublic]

From Newsweek:

Senator Elizabeth Warren is fast becoming a favorite to win the Democratic nomination for president, and a new poll from NPR and the Marist Institute is providing new evidence for that surge: Warren is now the Democratic Party's most highly regarded candidate, and she earns the number two slot among all registered voters.

Seventy-five percent of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Warren, the highest favorability rating of any candidate in the field, according to the NPR/Marist poll. Former Vice President Joe Biden, who regularly leads candidate preference polls within the Democratic Party, trails Warren with a 71 percent favorability rating.

In January, Warren's favorability rating among Democrats stood at just 53 percent.

...

"Elizabeth Warren seems to be on the verge of starting to make significant and serious inroads into this contest," Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, told NPR. "Heading into the debate, she's very well positioned."


https://www.newsweek.com/elizabeth-warren-democrats-favorability-rating-polls-1458778?utm_campaign=NewsweekFacebookSF&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook

[DemocracyMouse]

1. Sometimes a little exposure is all it takes.

Although I actually have few complaints about any of the major Democratic candidates – in fact it's a remarkably likable bunch – Warren just seems so damn prepared. She's the exact opposite of Trump.

If she wins this and takes out the Klown, I will probably cry like a baby.

[Auggie]

2. Warren's win would be incredibly historic and emotional ...

just like Obama's.

[Funtatlaguy]

3. And a woman shall lead us back to sanity.

[wcast]

4. I'm already sick of the media narrative that she is too left and can be branded a socialist.

Morning Joe spent the morning talking about how she can't win and Democrats only want someone who can beat Trump.

If we can't beat a president who has never had a positive rating, who is currently at 38% approval, I will hang my head with shame.

I don't want 8 years of middle of the road. I want progressive policies and a president who will fight to do that.

[Funtatlaguy]

5. I would love to see a one on one debatewith Biden & Warren.

It would be very illuminating about the direction we want to take our party and the country.
Safe small change or bold big change.
If Warrens polling numbers head to head vs Trump improve, I think you’ll see more movement toward her in the primary polling. Many people are so scared of a second Trump term that they will stay with Joe if he looks like the best safest option.

[Bettie]

6. You have perfectly stated my feeling too

I don't want 8 years of middle of the road. I want progressive policies and a president who will fight to do that.

That is it.

Plus, she's calm and competent.

I'd also point out that anyone we nominate will be called a socialist. Remember, every one of our candidates has been "the most liberal" according to pundits and Republicans.

[DemocracyMouse]

8. Such a good point!

every one of our candidates has been "the most liberal" according to pundits and Republicans.

Also, anyone who is recommending "progressive" reforms is also (given the vast latitudes of interpretation that the universe affords us) a "traditional" New Deal American.

[JaneQPublic]

7. Socialist? As Mayor Pete says, GOPers will brand ANY Dem nominee a Socialist.

I'm also sick of the narrative of certain media types that say we have to choose the candidate who the can best grab away a few Trump voters. And in the next breath, they report that Trump's core supporters are sticking with him no matter what, even if he shoots someone on 5th Avenue.

How about instead we work on energizing OUR base the way the GOP does theirs?

As an Undecided, I place Warren in my circle of four or five favorite candidates, not so much because of her positions and policies, but because of the person she is: Someone who knows EXACTLY why she's running for president, who focuses on the concerns of the average working person, who is sufficiently intelligent and curious to tackle any problem that comes into the Oval Office, who exhibits courage and integrity so as not to fold under pressure, and, as this poll indicates, is personable and approachable enough to be viewed positively by the general public.

As one pundit said, Warren is like that favorite high school teacher whose class you'd never skip.

[honest.abe]

9. Favorability among Democrats and electability are two different things.

Last edited Thu Sep 12, 2019, 10:24 AM - Edit history (2)

Electability means she needs to appeal to Independents and moderates in a general election. So far in the data that I have seen she is not our best candidate going up against Trump.

For example some recent polls...

New Hampshire: Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
New Hampshire: Trump 51, Warren 49 Trump +2

Wisconsin: Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9
Wisconsin: Warren 45, Trump 45 Tie

Nevada: Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6
Nevada: Trump 47, Warren 46 Trump +1

North Carolina: Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
North Carolina: Trump 43, Warren 44 Warren +1

Michigan: Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
Michigan: Warren 49, Trump 43 Warren +6

[JaneQPublic]

10. The crosstabs...

This poll also surveyed all National Adults and National Registered voters --- p. 14 on the link below:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1909091558.pdf#page=3

True, Biden polls as more favorable among these groups than Warren, but he does so within the margin of error.

In any event, these poll results appear to dispel all the chatter that Warren is somehow too "unlikable" to even be considered as the nominee.

[honest.abe]

11. Electability will continue to be an issue until her numbers versus Trump improve.

Currently they are not good especially in some of key battleground states as I posted earlier..

New Hampshire: Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
New Hampshire: Trump 51, Warren 49 Trump +2

Wisconsin: Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9
Wisconsin: Warren 45, Trump 45 Tie

Nevada: Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6
Nevada: Trump 47, Warren 46 Trump +1

North Carolina: Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
North Carolina: Trump 43, Warren 44 Warren +1

Michigan: Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
Michigan: Warren 49, Trump 43 Warren +6

[JaneQPublic]

13. "Electability" is defined lots of different ways.

And it's commendable that, as a Harris supporter, you're standing up for Biden's electability.

But in addition to the static "snapshot" that your polls represent, we can also look at overall trajectory, and Warren is one of the few candidates whose numbers are steadily improving in what is yet to be a long campaign.

As far as a definition of electability, WP ran a good column a while back:

“Electability” is the watchword among many Democrats this spring as they begin to evaluate the ever-growing field of candidates for their party’s presidential nomination. The question of who can beat President Trump weighs heavily in voters’ assessments. But is that the real measure that produces presidents?

Electability is an elusive concept. It is not one of those that fits into the category of, “I know it when I see it.” It is born of individual biases and the conventions of history, often the search for something that seems to replicate something that was successful before. But a look back at presidential campaigns of the past suggests something else has been more powerful in determining who wins the White House.

Four years ago at this moment, almost no one, except perhaps the man himself, believed that Donald Trump was electable. He wasn’t even a formal candidate, after all. Although he had been on the edge of the political stage, conventional wisdom afforded him little chance of becoming the 45th president. On the electability scale, he was in the low range.

Twelve years ago at this time, Hillary Clinton was judged to be the most-electable Democrat seeking the nomination. A New York senator, former first lady and part of the then-best brand in Democratic politics, she had the attributes that added up to being most electable.

Barack Obama, then a relatively new U.S. senator, was considered much more a long shot. As he said later, he believed he had about a 25 percent chance of winning the nomination — good enough to make the race but certainly no iron lock for someone whose race alone made him a long shot in the eyes of the conventional wisdom committee.

Four decades ago at this moment, Jimmy Carter was a little-known, one-term governor of Georgia, just starting to make his way around the country, carrying his own bag and sleeping in the homes of friendly Democrats. Who thought he was electable in a field of more than a dozen candidates that included several prominent senators with vastly more experience and recognition within their party?

MORE...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-and-the-electability-trap-can-anyone-define-what-it-means/2019/05/04/2855f98c-6e7f-11e9-a66d-a82d3f3d96d5_story.html

[honest.abe]

14. I think most consider electability as winning the general not winning the Dem nomination.

Not doubt Warren has a decent chance of winning the Dem nomination but my concern is that she is not our best candidate to defeat Trump in the general. That is based on her current numbers head to head with him. Sure those numbers could change but at the moment she does not do well against him especially in key battleground states. We shall see how things play out in next few months.

[JaneQPublic]

15. Of course. But predicting that is the trick.

And even the best political analysts have pretty rotten track records predicting who would be the truly electable nominee.

I do agree: We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

[HeartlandProgressive]

12. K&R