Elizabeth Warren leads Joe Biden in ranked-choice poll

[caraher]

Just saw an interesting Vox article on results of a YouGov poll commissioned by FairVote, advocates or ranked-choice voting. Of course, we by and large don't use ranked-choice voting in this process, so the significance of the headline about Warren relative to Biden is open to debate.



There are, however, some states that do plan to apply ranked choice in the primaries. The FairVote site suggests a way of looking at their poll results to simulate how that could play out, and the result using their national polling data would (were this the vote in a RCV state) result in essentially a dead heat between Biden and Warren, with Sanders the only other candidate receiving delegates.

If nothing else, it's a good reminder of the ways voting methods shape outcomes in ways that make categorical statements about the way elections reflect the purported collective "will of the voters" problematic. As far as the poll results themselves, I think they suggest Warren might be the greatest beneficiary of an early winnowing of the field (which I'd already thought) even in a three-way race for the nomination including Sanders (which seemed less obvious to me).

[bootcamp]

1. Very unreliable poll.

I decided to try out this so-called online voting system and was able to vote several times. When will we stop bashing Biden?

[BlueMTexpat]

3. How exactly does this

poll "bash" Biden?

It is but one poll among many. What I like is that it shows graphically how ranked-choice voting works.

But most states do not used ranked-choice voting in their primaries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting_in_the_United_States

[bootcamp]

4. any one could vote several times

[BlueMTexpat]

5. I agree about the

unreliability of the poll.

But how does it "bash" Biden?

[blm]

7. Just a posted poll. Polls get posted here every day.

How does a posted poll become bashing to you?

In a million years I wouldn’t accuse all the Biden on top polls of being bashing the other candidates.

[caraher]

8. I don't understand

The inputs to the whole thing are the results of an already-concluded, national poll. There is no option to vote, even once, let alone multiple times, that I can see. Can you provide the link you are using to vote? I don't think it can possibly be affecting the data already collected.

FairVote commissioned YouGov to conduct this national poll of 1,002 likely Democratic presidential primary voters that took place from September 2 through 6. The goal of our poll was to elevate approaches to polling crowded fields that provide greater insight than the usual focus on “single choice” results. We partnered with Vox, which showcases a ranked choice voting simulation on its website, and we were assisted by a team of data analysts whose findings are featured below.

If you somehow found a survey link on the page it's feeding something else, not these results.

[BlueMTexpat]

2. Thanks for posting.

[Joe941]

6. This means nothing.

[caraher]

11. In terms of the horse race, I agree

The purpose of the exercise is not prognostication

The goal of our poll was to elevate approaches to polling crowded fields that provide greater insight than the usual focus on “single choice” results.

[DrFunkenstein]

9. This is exactly how reality works

I love a good algorithm uncluttered by nuance.

[DemocracyMouse]

12. Like all algorithms its very simplicity dodges the rich beauty of humans changing their minds...

after each shift in the deluge of news. We cannot predict an election with much accuracy any more than we can predict the path of a hurricane.

Algorithms, like any artificial intelligence, are simply a new version of a sharpie thrust into nature's path.

[OilemFirchen]

10. If we lived in Russia...

Trump would be leading the Democratic Primaries with 99.9%.

If my aunt had...