Benenson Strategy poll, Likely Voters: Biden 28%, Sanders 21%, Warren 14%, Buttigieg 8%, Harris 6%,

[highplainsdem]

Booker 3%, Castro & O'Rourke & Yang 2%, all others 1% or less

http://dfer.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DFER-BSG-Polling-Results-9.12.19.pdf

(That link is the one on 538's Latest Polls page.)


This is a B- rated poll of 762 likely voters.


Joel Beneson is a strategist who worked for both Obama's and HRC's campaigns.



Benenson also polled on the current favorability of both Trump and President Obama.

Trump's favorability is at 44%.

Obama's is at 63%.

[Thekaspervote]

1. Oh boy!! Go Joe go!!

Maybe this is part of his up tick on RCP average

[bluewater]

3. As of 9/12/2019 there is no uptick for Biden on the RCP Polls tracker...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

In fact it shows him having moved down to 26.8% average support...

[highplainsdem]

4. Their poll average also shows Sanders, Warren and Harris slipping. Buttigieg is the only one in the

top 5 showing an uptick.

[bluewater]

5. Warren and Sander gaining while Biden fades over the last month

Warren and Sander combined now +8 over Biden.

Back in August, Biden had a +2 LEAD over their combine totals.

In short, Biden is fading, while Warren and Sanders continue to gather strength.

Anyone can see the actual trends for themselves at RCP Polls:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[highplainsdem]

8. Warren's down from a month ago. Sanders is up slightly. Biden's average was affected by the

outlier Monmouth poll that gave a a boost to both Warren and Sanders, and by RCP using a lower set of numbers for Biden from a Reuters/Ipsos poll, the set including some Republicans, as opposed to the set of numbers in the same poll from registered Democrats, which made an 8 point difference for Biden. Even though the poll results gave the registered-Democrats poll results first. Using that set of numbers including Republicans also hurt Warren and Sanders slightly, but not nearly as much as it hurt Biden.

[bluewater]

10. um, no, Warren and Sanders have GAINED since Aug 1st, Biden has faded.

And the Monmouth poll has nothing to do with anyone's current numbers. That poll has cleared out of the RCP Polls tracking average. It no longer effects anyone's numbers.

But lets look at the change since August 1st:

At the start of August Warren was at 14%, Sanders at 16.5% and Biden at 32%

Now, Warren is at 16.8%, Sanders is at 17.3% and Biden is at 26.8%.

Sorry, but facts are stubborn things.

Since August 1st, Warren and Sanders have been gaining support, while Biden has been fading/

Again, instead of cherry picking fluctuations, anyone can see the actual trend for themselves at RCP POLLS tracker:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Clearly, Biden has been losing support, he's down to just 26.8% AVERAGE support right now.
Clearly, Warren's and Sanders' combined totals have increased.

[highplainsdem]

13. I said a month ago. And the Reuters/Ipsos poll is the most recent.

[bluewater]

2. Any details? online or live? Numbers polled? Margin of Error?

Your link didn't seem to give any details like that.

Thanks in advance for providing that info when you get it.

[Thekaspervote]

6. Yeah.. Biden's poll average yesterday on RCP was a +8.5% today it is 9.5% go Joe go!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

[bluewater]

7. Um, no...

on 9/12/2019 Biden's lead is at 9.5% (this is the latest result shown)

On 9/11/2019 Biden's lead was at 10.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html



Anyone can mouse over the tracking charts to see the day by day numbers and the lead displayed for each day.

[Thekaspervote]

11. You might want to look at your dates. 12/9/19 ....12/10/19

[bluewater]

15. Thanks for catching the typos

I cant tell if it's my eyes or some dyslexia thing when I mistype like that...

And as for upticks and downticks, there will be changes day to day up and down, but there wasn't an uptick over the last few days.

It's the long term trends that matter anyways.

Again, thanks for catching my date typos.

[emmaverybo]

9. Great news.

[Thekaspervote]

12. Indeed it is!!

[crazytown]

14. Good news for ewarren

No poll with JB under 30 gives him the numbers to win 50+1% of the delegates in round 1 of the convention.

Biden 28% (BS + EW) = 35%

If Harris & Buttigieg crater, Warren picks up more of their votes than Biden.

[CentralMass]

17. Thank you for posting.