Warren.

[sharedvalues]

I like many of the candidates - and would be happy with several of them as president.

But it is fairly shocking to me how Liz Warren now leads DU with 21%. Biden down to 13%. Others below him.

In the rest of the country, polling consensus shows Biden with a few points’ lead over Warren and Sanders who are pretty neck and neck.

DUers are a selected demographic. But they’re also well-informed Democrats.

I think DUers are just getting first to where the whole country will be. In three months I predict Warren will be in the lead.

[applegrove]

1. Could be. I've noticed DU was marching to its own band from the very start.

Warren did really well in a poll today. I'll go looking for it.

[sharedvalues]

3. A few months ago DU polling reflected the nation

Last edited Sat Sep 14, 2019, 12:32 AM - Edit history (1)

In terms of order. Check it out

[question everything]

2. Castro made it to the debate. Meaning he scored 2% in several polls

and yet on DU he is below 0.51% And Williamson is ahead of him.

I often take solace that DU is not a representative of all Democrats.

[Ferrets are Cool]

4. I hope you are right.

I've been thinking about how she will destroy Agent Orange in any debates.

[pangaia]

5. Most americans do not do politics.. too dumb, don;t pay attention, don't care enough....

until it hits them upside the head....

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. Time for DNC to place some generic ads to

spark some interest. Is the Voice still on ? Something like the fact that trump reversed an Obama regulation that stopped coal companies from dumping sludge that contains cancer causing materials into the water. Picture ad with kids splashing in water. Who hates polluted water?

Link in sig line. Treasure trove of horror...detailed list of everything trump has done.

[pangaia]

24. I agree, it sure seems to me like the Dem party, DNC,

dem politicians whatever, have really poor messaging..
and have yet to realize the full horror and danger of what is going on..

DNC needs to tell those dumb as shit americans that the republican party are turning the usa into a fascist dictatorship right in front of our eyes!

and ya know what. even if a dem DOES 'win'the so-called 'election'(election has become a joke) .. well, let;s just say that repubs and trump have destroyed the office already... that next dem president is in for a living hell...

and---there will be blood in the streets, i believe....

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. If you watch the debates you can't even tell there's

NOT a normal, typical GOP opponent out there. And any jokes are incredibly lame. There's got to be a zillion great zingers out there. And not to specifically call out any crimes is amazing. Somehow it's hard to envision a shift in the general when there's no glimmer of it now.

BTW, you know how trump can never keep a secret? He keeps claiming he will win Minnesota. That's the first place I'd look for a hack.

[pangaia]

29. well said..

I mean, they are ALL very intelligent, capable people.

But, (and I only watched a few minutes here and there) seems not a word...
When kamala did her opening thing-- man, was THAT the place to do it. !! (Or maybe I sould say 'WOMAN, was that the place to do it!)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

31. Yes. And there such a wealth of hidden things he's

done to chose from. You would really give the press something to focus on. Just takes a handful of researchers. And u use a technique of acting confused. It's less inflammatory. Like,. "surely trump would never do something like allow our water to be poisoned. I don't understand....but the proof is here...he removed this regulation..."

[pangaia]

33. You aughta volunteer.. for a good fee, of course...

You;d be good at it...

Hell actuallyt, ANYBODY here could do it.
WTF is the matter with those people

[in2herbs]

32. I was thinking this same thought just this AM. The Dems better improve their

messaging and that includes pointing out how Trump and the Rs policies are wrong for everyone, not just how the Ds are right for everyone.

I become more of a recluse every day that I encounter dumb as s**t Americans in both parties which is why I wrote on another post that we need more teachers cuz the youth of today certainly isn't learning to be smarter than their parents.

[MadDAsHell]

6. Let's be real: we're not even remotely representative of the average American.

Mind you, I'm not saying our preferences and choices are WRONG, I'm simply saying that to pretend that DU is some microcosm of the larger Democratic electorate is to completely ignore the average tone and topic discussed on here.

I was a lurker long before I was a member. If I or any of the rest of us as a collective group were even remotely representative of the the larger Democratic electorate, Al Gore would have been swept into the 2008 nomination, and if he truly never stepped into the race, then Kucinich would have won the nomination in a landslide. In reality, neither of those people were even on the average Democrats' radar as a potential nominee.

We are RIGHT, but I can admit that doesn't make us representative.

[sharedvalues]

20. Its the CHANGE in the polls here that is interesting.

Biden used to be on top here too (before he entered, Kamala was).
But slowly slowly slowly Warren has been creeping up and Biden is creeping down.

I think that will be reflected in the broader Dem electorate. Let’s see.

[Blue_true]

7. I agree with every point that you made.

Warren just need to clean up a couple of things, Biden is springing leaks all over the place. Biden is in the lead outside of DU, but that won't continue if he keeps making bad statements and losing debates to Senator Warren.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. Yet people who want Trump impeached are labeled progressive, like Warren

and Sanders are. And, only a handful here are huge impeachment proponents. And, Pelosi is considered an idol here despite her reticence on a so called progressive push. Go figure - a complete and utter mismash.

All I know is that despite how great people are in representing and fulfilling our personal ideals, it is all in vain if they can't beat the monster.

[Tipperary]

11. Absolutely.

This is so spot on.

[Garrett78]

9. I think Warren could play the role of spoiler in Iowa or New Hampshire, or both.

But I'm not sure she can win enough support among Black folks to become the nominee. But if she prevents Biden from winning those first 2 contests, Biden's support in South Carolina may collapse.

If Sanders were to drop out (not going to happen), Warren would have a better chance and Biden would be in serious trouble. Not because Warren would become the nominee necessarily, but because Biden would probably lose both Iowa and New Hampshire. And then he'd be seen as vulnerable, opening the door for Harris or someone else to carry South Carolina and kick ass on Super Tuesday.

The longer the field remains large the more likely Biden is to remain the front-runner, because the average voter isn't going to even try to distinguish between 20 people they've never heard of. He needs both Warren and Sanders and a dozen others in the race for as long as possible.

[FakeNoose]

10. The smaller candidates will be dropping out in the next few months

When that happens you'll see more people gravitating to Biden, Warren and/or Sanders.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. Who is next? Surely Castro

[FakeNoose]

13. Not sure, but it usually comes down to fundraising

If they can't raise the cash, they can't compete against the ones who can.

[Garrett78]

19. There are a lot of candidates who are worse off than Castro. At least he was on the stage.

In the meantime, Biden benefits from a large field, as the average voter isn't going to bother trying to distinguish between 20 people they've never heard of.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. True. But can't imagine anyone giving Castro a dime

after his badgering of Biden. Whether it was Biden or anyone else, it doesn't matter. If you watch again he displayed a glimpse of a very unattractive, ugly side of his personality.

[floppyboo]

14. Pretty sure there are some pranksters masquerading - so ...

My guess is that Sanders' support is much higher than 8.
Seriously, sometimes I think I'm a masochist having him as my pick.
Certainly a target for flaming.
But I've just put most of those peeps on ignore, so that keeps my little world sane.

[highplainsdem]

15. DU isn't at all representative. A DU poll in 2015 had Sanders beating Hillary Clinton 91% to 9%.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10026592890


So I can't agree that "DUers are just getting first to where the whole country will be."

Kucinich was a huge favorite here, too, for a while.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1983812

From the OP of that 2007 thread:

It's easy to be a Kucinich supporter on DU; he polls at 5% nationally but wins every DU poll by 80 points.

[McCamy Taylor]

17. Agree. Of the "big three" she was the only one who looked presidential

Plus, I think we may see a backlash against the backlash from last election. All the misogynists who looked at beautiful Hillary Clinton and saw 1) the mother who never loved them enough (in their opinion) or 2) the beautiful babe that would not give them the time of day and thought to themselves "I hate her!" because they identified her with those other women who made them feel insecure---I think that some of them will regret their pettiness last time, especially since it got us Trump. And I think that some of them will look at Elizabeth warren who reminds them of their favorite high school teacher--the one who refused to leave anyone behind, the one that made that made them feel good about themselves---and they will say "I am going to vote for her! That will prove I don't hate women!" And the nation will have one great big Kumbya moment the way it did in 2008.

So, I think that Elizabeth Warren is the smart choice. And my favorite of the top three. Wall Street will shit bricks, but fuck Wall Street. Main Street will love her.

[5starlib]

18. The DU is Warren's demo group

Mostly white, progressive, educated.

[sharedvalues]

21. Correct and she used to be way down

And now she’s inching up. Let’s see.

[bearsfootball516]

22. DU is significantly more progressive than the average United States Democrat.

It's not an accurate representation of the Democratic party in the United States.

[aikoaiko]

25. I'm pretty close to choosing Warren, but...

...she's doesn't appear willing to distinguish herself from the other leaders by direction contrasts.

I want a candidate who is willing to say "Here is how I'm different from Joe", "here is how I'm different from Bernie," and "here is how I'm different from Kamala" and that's why you should vote for me.

I don't think she's going to nice her way into the nomination which makes me wonder if she really wants it.

[ritapria]

26. Iowa is the Key Race to Watch

If Biden wins Iowa , the race is over ...He's the nominee ...If Bernie or Liz win Iowa, they will almost certainly win New Hampshire 8 days later …..The Big Question : Will this momentum carry them to a close second in SC or will Biden's SC Firewall remain strong ? If he wins SC by around 10-15% , he will slog on to win the nomination ...It appears to be a 3 person race at this point …..

[crazytown]

27. If Biden wins big in Iowa - yes

but I think it will be three candidates on the convention floor, none with a majority. I expected Bernie to fade to single digits, but the has not happened, and now, I do not think it will. With both Warren and Sanders about 15% in many contests, Biden will not get a majority.

[sharedvalues]

30. Yes.

If Warren wins Iowa/NH I think you see Black people seeing her as electable, leaving Biden, and moving to her. So I think Iowa is the race.