Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumUSC/LA Times poll this week found undecided primary voters (24%) ideologically closest to Biden
DemocratSinceBirth posted the primary preferences (Biden 28%, Sanders 13%, Warren 11%) a few days ago
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287272816
and others have posted about the poll's finding that the public option is more popular than MFA
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287279463
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287273587
but there's another part of the poll that I found really interesting, which I haven't seen mentioned here, and which I found in the university's story on some poll results.
The pollster asked respondents planning to vote in the Democratic primary about where they'd rate themselves -- and where they'd rate the top 4 candidates -- ideologically, on a scale from 0 to 100, with 0 being most liberal, and 100 being most conservative.
You'll find the graphs here, about a quarter of the way down the page:
https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3075/poll-shows-democrats-want-medicare-program-gun-restrictions/
When all Dem primary voters were averaged, the rating for "self" was 40, and the rating for Biden was 46.
For Biden supporters, the rating for self was 45, and for Biden was 47.
For undecided voters, the rating was 46 for self, and 49 for Biden. Very close to the Biden supporters.
The undecideds rated Warren at 40, Harris at 39 (interesting that they viewed her as slightly more liberal than Warren), and Sanders at 33.
That puts the undecideds noticeably closer to Biden than Warren or Harris ideologically, and much closer to Biden than to Sanders ideologically.
And that's especially interesting because in this poll, the Biden supporters plus the currently undecided are 52% of voters.
Obviously the ideological preference doesn't guarantee they'll go with Biden. But it does suggest these are more moderate Democratic voters.
There was another interesting aspect of these ideological preferences.
For reasons I don't understand, Warren supporters apparently view both the Democratic Party as more liberal, and Trump as more conservative, than supporters of the other three top candidates, or the undecided voters. Warren supporters would rate Bernie Sanders as a 16, when his own supporters rate him 27. They rate Warren 23, when Sanders supporters rate her 36. They rate themselves at 25, when Sanders supporters rate themselves at 33. They rate Harris 28, when Sanders supporters rate her 41. And they rate Biden 39, when Sanders supporters rate him 49. They rate Trump 79, the most conservative rating for him. Sanders supporters rate him 76. Harris supporters rate him 69, Biden supporters 61, and the undecideds rate Trump 59 on that scale, again very closer to the Biden supporters' opinions.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,926 posts)of this, highplainsdem!
Good to know!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Joe Biden's support is around 28% but Sanders and Warren are well above 13 % and 11% support respectively . Bernie is closing in on 1 million individual donors while Liz is drawing massive crowds around the country When you include leaners , both have support in the 18 - 20% range .. Joe is the favorite but if he does not carry Iowa , he will face a stiff challenge from the candidate who does . A brokered convention is a real possibility
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Control-Z
(15,681 posts)Is this your opinion or has it been called an outlier by USC/LA Times or other pollsters?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)Not really. It's mostly wishful thinking at this point.
National polls don't have anything to do with how the primary process works, and the 15% rule is going to be more of a factor than any national poll. The number of donors is meaningless in relation to votes, as we learned in 2016, as is the size of one's crowds and "enthusiasm" or lack thereof. The only thing that matters is who actually shows up in primaries and caucuses.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,182 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
I don't know enough about Harris yet. Months ago I think I might have agreed with you. But lately I've been thinking she's quite a bit more conservative. I am hoping the debates, Town Halls and other events, will give us a better picture.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Polls show Warren voters are strikingly better educated. Thus, less influenced by those seeking to deceive.
Highplains, you've probably noticed how often many in the media dishonestly call the small fraction of farther left dissenters "liberal" and mainstream Democrats "moderates" -- a term apparently meant to mean some half-assed version of "they might as well be conservatives"?
Warren voters are far more likely to both BE and know the truth: that the Democratic Party is heavily dominated by a broad field of liberals. Farther-left dissenters are a splinter faction largely given to anti-Democrat zealotry and radicalism, and our conservative faction is similarly small.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,152 posts)Solid frontrunner, need I say more?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden