Democracy Corps/GQR poll, Likely Voters: Biden 30%, Sanders 21%, Warren 19%, Booker & Harris &

[highplainsdem]

Buttigieg 4%, Klobuchar & Gabbard & Yang 2%, all others 1% or less


This poll is B- rated at 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

https://democracycorps.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DCorps_Full-Internal-National-Phone-FQ_091119.pdf


It is a small sampling of likely voters. 241 according to the 538 page.

[Prosper]

1. If Sanders or Warren drops out

then the remaining one goes to 40%. Plus as each other candidate drops out the bulk of support goes to Sanders or Warren. Sanders and Warren are virtually identical. So the support for a moderate centrist is 30% while the support for radical left progressives is 40%.

[highplainsdem]

2. None of the polling indicates that.

[Thekaspervote]

9. Um no, that isn't how it plays out. Here's a poll of second choices when candidates drop out

Morning Consult's polling of voters' 2nd choices indicates no one can catch Biden by other

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

[Prosper]

10. Just like Trump was behind at the end of October 2015

I feel a lot of people are uncomfortable associating with the far left. People in October 2015 did not want to be declare publicly that Trump as their preference and I feel the same applies to disclosing support for far left progressives.

[crazytown]

12. That's Morning Consult

low cost automated forms sent a representative panel, rather the more expensive method of interviewing a sample. In the GE Morning Consult uses samples, and interviews. In the Dem primaries, it's getting cheap clicks by sending a form to the same 5000 people, week after week.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. No MOE listed...wonder why?

With such a small sample, the MOE must be HUGE.

In this survey, Biden beats Trump 49-40, Warren and Sanders beat him 48-41. Interestingly, Justin Amash was listed as an option...

[highplainsdem]

4. You have those numbers wrong. Biden is at 50% against Trump, with both likely and registered voters

when the small number of those listed as "lean Democrat" are also included.

As they are with the totals that reach 48% for Warren and Sanders.

So he polls 2 points better than those rivals.

As for including Amash -- he's said he's running.

And a third-party candidate who can pick up even a few percent of the vote has to be considered as a factor.

I think it's encouraging that Biden cuts into the support for Amash.

[highplainsdem]

5. And btw, the MOE will be smaller for the GE matchups part of the poll than the Dem-primary vote,

since the matchup section includes a lot more voters.

GE matchups here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282211

[ritapria]

6. Last 3 partisan Polls have Bernie at 21%

Bernie is at 21% in last 3 National polls conducted by partisan pollsters …..Benenson Group(D) , McLaughlin & Associates (R) and Democracy Corps /GQR (D) They have Joe at 28%, 28%, and 30% respectively …. Very similar results …..

[LincolnRossiter]

7. Joe maintaining his support.

I guess we can strike "Corn Pop" off the list.

Anyone want to start a pool of what's next? I bet at some point in the late 1960s he stumbled into a diner with no black customers present.

Time to gin that one up.

[Cha]

11. lol

[liskddksil]

8. This was entirely conducted prior to the debate so may not be reflective

of the current state of the race.