Morning Consult Post Debate Poll: Biden 32%, Sanders 20%, Warren 18%, Harris 6%

[Otto Lidenbrock]

Link to tweet

That seems a higher than normal sample size.

[LincolnRossiter]

1. They obviously haven't factored in Corn Pop gate yet.

That’ll get Biden down.

[bluewater]

3. RCP POLLS: Biden now down to 26.2% Average support with this poll.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

And his lead over Warren 17% and Sanders16.8% is also down, now at +9.2

So, something is happening, no?



Looking at the trend on the RCP POLLS tracker, the primary race definitely seems to be tightening up.

But I am sure this will fluctuate some, we will have to wait and see what happens over the next few months.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. It is tightening for sure

[bluewater]

8. Looking at the past 6 weeks of polling, Biden is shown fading.

the trend is what the trend is.

[LincolnRossiter]

6. Sure. A lot of more favorable polls fell out of the average. Those that currently make up th current

average happen to have historically been more bearish on Biden. The average on 538 has been a lot more stable.

[bluewater]

9. The trend is what the trend is...

Looking at the past 6 weeks of polling, Biden is shown fading.

Anyone can see the actual trend for themselves here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Older polls are dropped, that is true, because they are , well, older.

But the polls that are regularly strong for Biden, like the MorningConsult Poll and the Hill/HarrisX poll are included in today's numbers.

The highly rated CNN poll is also included still today.

[LincolnRossiter]

11. The trend is negligible. He was ahead approximately 10.5 a couple of weeks ago. He's about

9.2 now. That couple we’ll be noise even with a large basket of responders. But feel free to dance around your house about it.

And the poll ratings don’t matter. They aren’t indicative of predictive value if you bother reading up on how accurately they’ve called races in past cycles.

[bluewater]

12. um, no... Biden was at 32.2% on august 5th compared to 26.2% today

That's a 6% drop in Biden's actual support in 5 weeks.

The lead, which is also decreasing, is only the lead over the nearest rival, it does not show that BOTH Warren and Sanders have been gaining support while Biden has been fading significantly.



This is significant for future delegate counts in the up coming primaries.

[LincolnRossiter]

15. Again, this polling sample happens to capture most the the polls he's done relatively poorly in and

it only cuts his lead over his nearest rival about 1.5 points. Wait until a new Q poll or Harvard-Harris is factored in. You’ll see that there's A lot of noise in the numbers.

They all show one guy on top, though. I’ll be glad when Warren bows out and endorses Biden so that you can stop getting yourself all in a snit.

[bluewater]

17. The Hill/HarrisX poll is factored in. lol

How many HarrisX polls do you want to be counted in the polling average cycle?

The trend is what the trend is.

It will fluctuate, but clearly the trend over the last 6 weeks has seen Biden fading.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Thanks for the discussion, I think I have repeated some of these points now, so instead of repeating them again, I will assume my point has been presented. Thanks again for the discussion.

[LincolnRossiter]

18. Be well.

NT

[Thekaspervote]

24. Yes it has!!

[Hassin Bin Sober]

10. Slowly. Inch by inch. Step by step.

[HeartlandProgressive]

20. lol

[redstateblues]

56. Wil E Coyote Hassin

[Thekaspervote]

23. The new MC poll must certainly be an enviable position for the other candidates

Go Joe go..we’ve got your back!!

[emmaverybo]

55. Corn Pop Gate!! OMG. May he Rest In Peace ✌️

[ritapria]

2. Morning Consult Post Debate Poll : Early States

Biden 34% Sanders 21% Warren 13% Buttigieg 5% Harris 5 %

[Joe941]

27. Yup Bernie is surging!

[Thekaspervote]

28. Wow! The early state polling looks even better for Biden. Thx for posting

[Tiggeroshii]

4. One thing that is noteworthy now is if you combine warren and sanders

They are now beating biden. That wasnt the case before...

[Otto Lidenbrock]

7. I don't read much into that

Because I don't see one dropping out until well into the race allowing a split progressive vote being concentrated into one.

Whereas those single digit candidates are more likely to drop out / run out of resources soon and they may prop up Biden further.

We'll wait and see.

[bluewater]

13. It's significant for delegate counts in the up coming primaries.

[Demsrule86]

48. I really do consider that wishful thinking...I follow the polls closely...I see no fading from Biden

.

[OilemFirchen]

16. If Sanders drops out, which, though unlikely, is the likeliest scenario...

the majority of his supporters go to Biden.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/430261-sanders-biden-seen-as-most-popular-second-choices-for-dem

Among Sanders's supporters, 26 percent said they supported Biden as a second choice, followed by Warren at 16 percent and Harris at 7 percent.

ETA: Per this poll, it's Biden at 28%, Warren at 26%, and Harris at 10%.

[bluewater]

19. Sanders won't be dropping out unless something unforeseen happens

I think he's made it clear that he intends to campaign thru until the convention.

[OilemFirchen]

31. Then it's useless to combine Warren and Sanders percentages for analysis.

I'm sure you agree. Right?

[bluewater]

37. Um, no... it's very significant in regards to delegate counts in the primaries

Delegates will be won by candidates getting over 15% in a given primary.

So, Warren and Sanders total being greater that Biden's is HUGELY significant. It might mean that Biden won't be able to get a majority of the delegates and win the nomination outright.

[OilemFirchen]

40. I've tried to compose a response to this several times.

I can't do it. Your logic is so extremely perverted, there's no adequate rejoinder.

[bluewater]

41. lol So you didn't know you need a majority of the delegates to win the nomination?

If Biden, Sander, Warren and possibly others all stay in the race, those candidates getting over 15% in any given primary get delegates from that primary.

Right now, Biden, Warren and Sanders seem in position to do just that. If Warren and Sanders combined get more delegates than Biden, that means Biden would not have the needed majority of delegates won to get the nomination out right.

That seems pretty simple to understand.



A second ballot has not been needed to select a nominee in decades, but if Warren and Sanders combined get more delegates than Biden, one would be needed to select the nominee.

again...

But, in my opinion, I think that Warren will end up getting the majority of the delegates and win the nomination out right.

Time will tell.

[OilemFirchen]

42. What the hell are you talking about?

"If Warren and Sanders combined..." Are they co-candidates now?

Let's try very simple Boolean Algebra:

If Warren trails Biden

and

If Sanders trails Biden

then

Biden gets at least a plurality of delegates. No one claims a majority, and certainly not this mythical Warrensanders.

n.b.: The above is based on current polling, and excludes, for no apparent reason whatsoever, all of the other candidates in the race.

n.b. II: This post was written before the interlocutor's post was edited.

[bluewater]

43. A PLURALITY of the delegates does not win the nomination.

You need an outright MAJORITY.

A candidate could win a MAJORITY outright in the primaries, then they are said to win the nomination "on the first ballot" at the convention since only elected pledged delegates can vote on the first ballot.

FAILING to get a MAJORITY on the first ballot means the convention goes to a SECOND ballot, where selected "super delegates", usually party officials, can also vote. Plus all the elected pledge delegates are then free to vote for any candidate they choose.

A PLURALITY never wins the nomination, you must get a MAJORITY one way or the other.



Honestly, this is pretty simple stuff.

THIS is why it matters if Warren and Sanders COMBINED support translates into a number of delegates greater than Biden's. That STOPS BIDEN from getting a majority of pledged delegates, meaning Biden can not win on the first ballot at the convention.

[OilemFirchen]

44. Still not making sense.

How does this mythical Warrensanders win on any vote if Biden maintains a plurality roughly equal to or slightly behind the Warrensanders delegate total?

n.b., because it never hurts: In the case of a brokered convention... superdelegates. Remember those horrid establishment monsters?

[bluewater]

46. It is really simple, delegates continue voting until one candidate gets a majority.

Let me highlight it for you:

A PLURALITY does not win the nomination. You need an outright MAJORITY.

A candidate could win a MAJORITY outright in the primaries, then they are said to win the nomination "on the first ballot" at the convention since only elected pledged delegates can vote on the first ballot.

FAILING to get a MAJORITY on the first ballot means the convention goes to a SECOND ballot, where selected "super delegates", usually party officials, can also vote. Plus all the elected pledge delegates are then free to vote for any candidate they choose.

A PLURALITY never wins the nomination, you must get a MAJORITY one way or the other.

THIS is why it matters if Warren and Sanders COMBINED support translates into a number of delegates greater than Biden's. That STOPS BIDEN from getting a majority of pledged delegates, meaning Biden can not win on the first ballot at the convention.

For example, delegates originally pledged to Sanders could decide to vote on subsequent ballots for Warren, possibly giving her the majority.

After the first ballot, elected pledged delegates are not locked into their original candidate.

On the second ballot, and any subsequent ballots, super delegates can vote along with all the original pledged delegates, who would then be free to vote for any candidate they choose.

Balloting rounds continue until one candidate GETS A MAJORITY of delegates to vote for them.

Pretty simple, right?

But if this process still seems confusing, I would suggest that you contact your local Democratic Campaign office and ask if someone there could explain the nomination process in detail in person.

[Thekaspervote]

22. This.. you beat me to it!!

And Sanders indeed may go all the way to the convention, but he won’t be the nominee, that support will go somewhere

[Thekaspervote]

21. It doesn't work that way. Here's a poll of second choices for voters and where that support goes

Morning Consult's polling of voters' 2nd choices indicates no one can catch Biden by other

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

[Demsrule86]

47. I don't think the votes neccesarily will go to Warren if Sanders drops out and I don't think he

will drop out anyway.

[Kahuna7]

14. I believe that within 4 wks Harris will be polling at 4% nt

[Thekaspervote]

25. Luv the jif...she's classy and cool!

[Kahuna7]

26. LOL! I'm expecting the incoming. I expect people to tell me...

what I am not allowed to believe.

[Thekaspervote]

29. Especially after yesterday.

All the mean shallow comments..was beyond the pale

[Kahuna7]

32. What's sauce for the goose....

[redstateblues]

57. Surging

[peggysue2]

30. Additional info on AA community (per age group) & ideology breakdowns

Link to tweet

The internals of the same poll.

[ritapria]

33. Thanks for Posting internals on Morning Consult Poll

Fascinating

[peggysue2]

34. No problem

Yeah, I think it gives us a better view of what's going on underneath those top numbers.

[Tarheel_Dem]

35. Thank you for that. Despite attempts by some to overemphasize Biden's "gaffes"....

the AA community knows Joe, and we ain't going nowhere.

[peggysue2]

36. Good to hear, Tarheel Dem

And the polls thus far prove your point. As well as proving that the Democratic Party is a lot larger than the screeching social media platforms and political pundits.

back.

[Skya Rhen]

49. We. Are. Not. Budging.

[JI7]

38. seems like Biden has gained among young AA

[peggysue2]

39. Looks like it though . . .

Bernie has a pretty consistent edge with young voters.

[Cha]

45. Thanks, Peggysue!

[peggysue2]

50. Most welcome, Cha

Think breaking down the numbers gives us an idea of how these numbers are playing out across the board.

Looking good for Joe!

[Cha]

51. Because.. Corn Pop!

RIP

[peggysue2]

53. Hahahaha!

Maybe he did had an effect from the afterworld. What a dumb controversy.

[Cha]

54. Yeah, looking at you, Michael Harriot..

And, whomever else tried t run with it.

[MadDAsHell]

52. Lesson: never race bait a legend with a great civil rights track record. nt

[Scurrilous]

58. ...