Capitol Weekly CA tracking poll has Warren surging past Biden

[highplainsdem]

and I'll use the word "surging" because it's appropriate in this case, since it's poll movement within weeks, not months.

Two Capitol Weekly tracking polls were posted on 538's latest polls page

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

today, one for August 1-31, which had Biden at 27% and Warren at 23%, and one for Sept. 1-13, which has Warren at 33% and Biden at 18%.

Both poll results can be seen at this page

https://public.tableau.com/profile/capitol.weekly#!/vizhome/2020PrimaryTrackingSurvey_15626518585990/CA120POLLSTORY

with a graph that shows their poll results tend to bounce around wildly.

They had Warren in the lead two months ago (and Harris practically tied with Biden then), Biden in the lead last month, now Warren again.

Anyway, I'm not surprised a progressive candidate would lead in California.

OTOH, we're in no danger of losing CA in the GE even if our nominee is more moderate. And running up lots of extra votes in CA will not help us win the electoral college victory we need.

[crazytown]

1. I doubt these are Tracking Polls

A tracking poll is a survey of the same set of people week after week - a "Panel", selected by criteria to be representative of the population - Think Morning Consult / Harris - for this reasons their results move slowly. Morning Consult respondents are presented with a form showing their last weeks choices, then asked whether they have changed their minds - if so they are then invited to change their selections.

[highplainsdem]

2. Well, the page from the pollster CALLS IT a tracking poll. So I went with their description.

[crazytown]

3. OK.

Fair enough. Seems inconsistent with the 538 results - polling the same panel of people before and after the debate.