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Democratic Primaries
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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Who Won The Debate Among Voters Who Prioritize Electability? Health Care? Climate Change?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-won-the-debate-among-voters-who-prioritize-electability-health-care-climate-change/"To that end, our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll, conducted using Ipsoss KnowledgePanel, contacted the same set of respondents both before and after the debate and asked them what issue was most important in determining their vote in the primary. And by far, Democrats most common answer was the ability to defeat Trump nearly 40 percent of respondents said this was their top issue. Health care, the economy, wealth and income inequality and climate change also ranked near the top of the list, though well behind a candidates ability to win.1 These priorities did not shift much after the debate either (all changes were within the polls 1.9-point margin of error).
A lot of Democrats really want to beat Trump."
Interesting that electability held steady at 39.6% while health care is less than 1/3 of that number at 11%.
What will it take in the months before the primaries to light a fire under Democratic voters to even be twice more enthused about health care than electability? That's got to suck for those beating the health drum but make Biden supporters happy.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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Who Won The Debate Among Voters Who Prioritize Electability? Health Care? Climate Change? (Original Post)
elocs
Sep 2019
OP
BlueMTexpat
(15,365 posts)1. There seems to be some very good news
for Elizabeth Warren, based on the responses from this group.
...
But although the issues voters prioritized didnt change much, this question can tell us something else: whether voters priorities influence their views of the debate. Specifically, we can cross-reference which issues respondents said they cared about before the debate2 with how they graded each candidates performance afterward in order to answer the question of how each bloc of Democrats climate-change Democrats, income-inequality Democrats, and so on thought each candidate did.
Take someone like Sen. Elizabeth Warren. She got the highest overall marks for her debate performance (respondents gave her an average score of 3.3 out of 4), but she got even higher scores from voters who prioritized climate change or defeating Trump (3.5 from both groups). Her strength with the latter group could be an especially positive sign for her because Democrats seem to care deeply about winning this year. (Whats more, the share of respondents in our poll who said they thought Warren could beat Trump ticked up slightly after her debate performance.)
But Warren wasnt the only candidate to get high scores from voters who said the most important issue was beating Trump. Former Vice President Joe Biden was graded higher by that group (scoring a 3.1) than by the respondent pool as a whole (3.0), though both scores were less impressive than Warrens. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Rep. Beto ORourke also scored well with voters who prioritize beating Trump they were the next-best performers after Warren (3.3 and 3.2, respectively).
Warren didnt just score well with voters whose top issue was climate change or beating Trump she was judged the top performer across all five voter groups we looked at.4 Among voters who prioritized health care and wealth and income inequality, however, she was neck-and-neck with Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has made single-payer health care and the redistribution of wealth big parts of his campaign. And among climate-change voters, Buttigieg and ORourke were once again close behind Warren. Warren scored the best with economy voters, too, but of the five issues we looked at, economy-focused Democrats gave candidates worse marks across the board, suggesting that they were unsatisfied by what they heard in the debate.
...
But although the issues voters prioritized didnt change much, this question can tell us something else: whether voters priorities influence their views of the debate. Specifically, we can cross-reference which issues respondents said they cared about before the debate2 with how they graded each candidates performance afterward in order to answer the question of how each bloc of Democrats climate-change Democrats, income-inequality Democrats, and so on thought each candidate did.
Take someone like Sen. Elizabeth Warren. She got the highest overall marks for her debate performance (respondents gave her an average score of 3.3 out of 4), but she got even higher scores from voters who prioritized climate change or defeating Trump (3.5 from both groups). Her strength with the latter group could be an especially positive sign for her because Democrats seem to care deeply about winning this year. (Whats more, the share of respondents in our poll who said they thought Warren could beat Trump ticked up slightly after her debate performance.)
But Warren wasnt the only candidate to get high scores from voters who said the most important issue was beating Trump. Former Vice President Joe Biden was graded higher by that group (scoring a 3.1) than by the respondent pool as a whole (3.0), though both scores were less impressive than Warrens. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Rep. Beto ORourke also scored well with voters who prioritize beating Trump they were the next-best performers after Warren (3.3 and 3.2, respectively).
Warren didnt just score well with voters whose top issue was climate change or beating Trump she was judged the top performer across all five voter groups we looked at.4 Among voters who prioritized health care and wealth and income inequality, however, she was neck-and-neck with Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has made single-payer health care and the redistribution of wealth big parts of his campaign. And among climate-change voters, Buttigieg and ORourke were once again close behind Warren. Warren scored the best with economy voters, too, but of the five issues we looked at, economy-focused Democrats gave candidates worse marks across the board, suggesting that they were unsatisfied by what they heard in the debate.
...
There was also some good news for Biden.
But I am very glad to see that Elizabeth is looking more "electable." If her appeal to AA and other minorities really ticks up, she will be in a very strong position.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)2. "A lot of Democrats really want to beat Trump"?
If you don't want to beat Trump, you're not a Democrat.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
elocs
(22,550 posts)3. And if you don't beat Trump, none of the other stuff matters. n/t
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)4. When we said that last time, we got told "fear is your only argument".
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Buzz cook
(2,471 posts)6. Exactly
The media loves to set up false dichotomys.
For the last few weeks its been, the deomcrats must focus on Trump or they must focus on issues voters care about. So when at candidate goes after Trump the media can scold them for not addressing issues and when they address issues the media can call them losers for not going after Trump.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
And if you don't beat Trump, none of the other stuff matters.
Because WINNING IN EVERYTHING in 2020. And the electoral college is the battlefield we will live or die on.
Because WINNING IN EVERYTHING in 2020. And the electoral college is the battlefield we will live or die on.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
abqtommy
(14,118 posts)5. The most important thing to me is election security since if we don't have it then we lose.
I want to hear proposals and actions to guarantee a free and fair election. I'll pay attention to other matters after that's settled.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden