** New ** NBC/WSJ Poll- Biden 31% (+5); Warren 25% (+6); Sanders 14% (+1); Harris 5% (-8)

[Skya Rhen]

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., continue to top the Democratic 2020 presidential field after last week’s debate — in a race for the nomination that breaks along ideological and racial lines, according to a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday.
The survey also shows that Warren has the advantage in enthusiasm, and that she gets the most second-choice support.

Biden leads the overall horserace with backing from 31 percent of Democratic primary voters (up 5 points since July), while Warren gets 25 percent (up 6 points).



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-biden-leads-dem-2020-field-warren-s-n1055511

[Cha]

1. Thank you, Skya!

[Kurt V.]

2. yesterday i saw a predictor that doesn't use polls, only data analysis and his peers like his model

say biden will win the dem nom. vote blue no matter who. I'm still rooting for warren

[BlueMTexpat]

4. Amen to that.

[jcgoldie]

10. So...

Maybe this is a stupid question, but what data do they analyze which indicates who wins the nomination if they don't use polls?

[Kurt V.]

14. pvi, district movement, voter roll call. Negative partisanship to name a few.

[BlueMTexpat]

3. Thanks for posting!

[left-of-center2012]

5. Biden leads in new national poll, Warren close behind

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287283969 Tue Sep 17, 2019, 04:06 PM

[bluewater]

6. Nice Graphic on July -- September change in this poll as race tightens

Link to tweet

July: Sanders 13%, Warren 19% for a combined 32% vs Biden at 26%

Sept: Sanders 14%, Warren 25% for a combined 39% vs Biden at 31%

RCP POLLS shows Biden now at 27% average support with a lead of +8.7

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

The race continues to tighten...

[OKNancy]

8. LOL Biden leads and gains

[bluewater]

11. um, no Biden lead dropped as the race continues to tighten

July: Sanders 13%, Warren 19% for a combined 32% vs Biden at 26%

Sept: Sanders 14%, Warren 25% for a combined 39% vs Biden at 31%

RCP POLLS shows Biden now at 27% average support with a lead now down to +8.7

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

The race continues to tighten...

[Doodley]

15. I didn't realize we had to add Warren and Sanders together.

[Peacetrain]

18. ROFL!! neither did Sanders..

He is going all the way.. he is not releasing his people and they are not walking away from him.. they are as passionate about him as Warrens people are about her.. she has been eating his lunch..but I would not add his voters to another candidates, just yet

[bluewater]

24. Why does it matter that Warren and Sanders combined Support continues to increase compared to Biden?

Why does it matter that Warren and Sanders combined Support continues to increase compared to Biden's?

It shows that Warren isn't just siphoning support from Sanders.

It means that Biden's support is fading while both Sanders and Warren are gaining support.

It illustrates why people say Biden is such a fragile front runner.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Hope that clears up any confusion you might continue to have on why it matters that Warren and Sanders combined support continues to increase compared to Biden's.

Also, Biden's current average lead of +8.7% is just about the lowest it has been in the primary race so far.

Looking at the solid green graphic at the bottom of the RCP Pollls tracker shows how this lead has trended downwards, especially over the last three months.

Enjoy your evening!

[OilemFirchen]

19. It's all the rage.

Neo-statisticians are changing the face of analysis. We should welcome their revolution!

Now, I'm going to fill in a crossword puzzle with random letters, numbers and punctuation marks. Plus, I win double!

[bluewater]

23. Are you confused? Allow me to explain it again....

Last edited Tue Sep 17, 2019, 09:01 PM - Edit history (1)

Why does it matter that Warren and Sanders combined Support continues to increase compared to Biden's?

It shows that Warren isn't just siphoning support from Sanders.

It means that Biden's support is fading while both Sanders and Warren are gaining support.

It illustrates why people say Biden is such a fragile front runner.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Hope that clears up any confusion you might continue to have on why it matters that Warren and Sanders combined support continues to increase compared to Biden's.

[Thekaspervote]

20. You are right EW & bernie voters go together like oil and water

“EW & sanders voters have little in common”

More at the link

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548

Morning Consult's polling of voters' 2nd choices indicates no one can catch Biden by other

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

[Tarheel_Dem]

35. It's called "Unskewing the Polls". Some don't really believe "the polls are what the polls are".

[FloridaBlues]

7. The most surprise is Sen Harris continues to drop in polling.

[oasis]

13. Harris will continue to do a great job in the U.S. Senate. She can

always make another presidential run in the years to come.

[Thekaspervote]

21. This!! She's got a great future

[oasis]

22. Who knows? Senate Majority leader and beyond. nt

[FloridaBlues]

31. Perhaps in the future your right

[peggysue2]

29. I am surprised by that drop

Yes, the bump after the first debate was fleeting; everyone called that one. But the continuous fall has been surprising IMHO.

[Tarheel_Dem]

36. I'm not surprised at all. None of the attackers are gaining ground. I think Warren is on the....

rise because she took the pledge seriously. If you look at Harris, Booker & now Castro, they have absolutely nothing to show for their attacks on the frontrunner.

[peggysue2]

37. True about Warren, Tarheel Dem

She hasn't taken the bait and pulled out the ugly stick. Not yet at least.

[Tarheel_Dem]

39. I think both Biden and Warren have shown each other a great deal of respect so far.

[peggysue2]

42. Absolutely agree!

[JI7]

38. Harris' support for MFA is hurting her. she has let Biden own the ACA issue

support for MFA doesn't hurt Warren and probably helps a bit because she is trying to get people that support Sanders . i actually think her position on it is strategic right now in order to get those supporters .

but most MFA types HATE Harris. they are never going to vote for her. so she isn't getting support which is going to Warren . and she is losing those who support ACA .

[Politicub]

9. Supporting Warren is exhilarating!

Great to see that her numbers continue to increase!

[brooklynite]

12. Tulsi, Delaney, Marianne, Bullock didn't get a qualifying poll result.

[BlueMississippi]

16. k&r nt

[Maven]

17. WARREN!

She has the momentum!

[Sugarcoated]

25. Joe's kickin ass

[DrFunkenstein]

26. Who Could Hear Her Triangle Factory Speech And Not Get Excited?

One of the best speeches I've heard in a very long time. Just gripping, inspiring stuff.

[5starlib]

27. Warren and Sanders are duking it out for the white progressive vote

Their supporters are flopping back and forth between the two, while Biden is still in the lead and in control of the race.

Also, Warren will never be the nominee unless she figures out how to win black voters...period. The party will never nominate someone getting single digit support with black voters, I don't care how many people she gets at rallies in NYC and SF.

[bluewater]

28. Biden is fading... Both Warren and Sanders are gaining support.

3 months ago on June 18th, Biden was at 32.4% average support.

Today he is at 27%.

Over that time, BOTH Warren and Sanders have gained support and Biden's lead is down to 8.7%.

Anyone can see this for themselves at the RCP Polls tracker:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

To make it even easier to see this, click on the "3M" button, for 3 months, at the bottom of the chart.

Also, the solid green graphic at the bottom of the chart shows how Biden's average lead has been trending downwards. It's gone over the last 3 months from +20.8% down to 8.7% today.

Honestly, it seems reasonable to think that Warren, and possibly Sanders, might end up in front of Biden if these trends continue.

[LanternWaste]

40. We tell ourselves what we find most politically expedient...

and pretend our own analyses are studied, thorough and researched, rather than the hastily constructed allegations they are.

"Honestly", indeed...

[bluewater]

41. Thanks for confessing.

"We tell ourselves what we find most politically expedient...
and pretend our own analyses are studied, thorough and researched, rather than the hastily constructed allegations they are. "

Maybe you were just a bit too hard on yourself?

[Tiggeroshii]

30. this 5 point lead or less thing is looking more and more consistent.

[FloridaBlues]

32. Not all the polling she is not depends on the poll

[Tiggeroshii]

33. Come again?

[LincolnRossiter]

34. Biden is my dude. He consistently takes it to Trump.

NT.

[gulliver]

43. Buttigieg 7%, Yang 4%, Klobuchar 2%, Booker 2%, Others 5%