VP Biden up 8 Sen Warren up 5 in Iowa.. a report from the Hawkeye State

[Peacetrain]

Just listening to MSNBC this morning.. those two are it.. Sen Warren has picked up so much of Sen Harris's numbers as well as Sen Sanders.. and the rest has gone to VP Biden.. the race is starting to solidify in Iowa.. it is past Labor Day.. our caucus is just a few months away..




Looks very good for VP Biden in Iowa.. I am happy..to see this..

MSNBC has been having a bit of a head spin... talking about how if Sen Warren can take the two whitest states Ia and NH she can win it.. only problem with that is.. she is leading in the white vote by one point.. honest to Pete.. she could win, but she has to unhook from Sen Sanders more..just my less than asked for opinion..

[still_one]

1. The problem is there are still a lot of undecided voters out there

[Peacetrain]

2. Oh yep..no doubt about that.. this is the first Iowa poll that I have heard

since the Des Moines Register poll is June or July I think.. I lose track of time.. I have had a gut feeling what is on the ground from talking to people..but this is the first hard numbers that I have seen to back it up..

[still_one]

3. I hear you, and it is also still a ways off.

I also think those who believe Iowa and NH will determine the nominee may be overestimating their importance because a lot of dynamics have changed. Some states have changed from a caucus to a primary, and some significant states have moved up their primaries to Super Tuesday

Besides the undecided voters, the other wild card are those states that have open primaries. That was pushed by those on the left, and was the biggest factor why Lipinski in Illinois won over Neuman in the Democratic primary. It is a double edged sword, and why I have always been against open primaries. Registered Democrats should choose their nominee, not those who don’t want to be identified as Democrats

[Peacetrain]

5. Just watching a repeat on MSNBC and Sen Klobachar is up 4 points, in Iowa

I missed that first time around.. that is great for Klobachar supporters.. she really made a move especially when you consider the percentage factor. wow.. and I think that is a horrible kneecapping of the Democratic Party letting anyone choose our candidate.. it is awful.. it is not freeing up for new ideas, it is the exact opposite.. if you want to run as a Democrat, join the Democratic Party..i do not even begin to understand letting republicans, independents other parties muck in our party

[still_one]

8. I agree. I think the Klobuchar move is very revealing. This is the Midwest. It is part of

what was referred to as the Bible Belt

Thanks for the observation

[DownriverDem]

7. Hopefully

folks will focus on who would be the best candidate to run against trump. Biden is our best candidate to win the Electoral College.

[NYMinute]

4. Beautiful ... go Joe!! nt

[Peacetrain]

6. I tell you.. I had a second cup of coffee on that one this morning.. and my coffee

is used as paint remover in a pinch ... it is exactly what I had been hearing from people I was talking too.. can it change.. oh yeah.. anything is possible.. but I think we are looking at our two big contenders in caucus.. Biden and Warren..

[DownriverDem]

9. Then folks

better focus on who can win the Electoral College which is state by state. It's such a clear choice for me.

[Peacetrain]

10. You are so right Downriver.. so right..

[peggysue2]

12. Absolutely correct, Downriver

The electoral college is what it's all about. We were given a shocking 'heads-up' in that regard in 2016. Joe Biden has the advantage of picking up those critical wins in the Midwest.

And if we forget the EC battleground?

We lose, again.

[Hortensis]

11. It's looking like it. Currently CA polls are mostly Biden-Warren,

kinda all over the place, tied, Biden substantially ahead, Warren substantially ahead. Harris badly slipped, Sanders continuing his decline.

As for changing dynamics, it's going to be so different! Midwest Iowa kicks it off, followed the same month by northeast NH, deep south SC, southwest NV.

And then Mar 3, of course, only 3 days after SC, this happens:
Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Democrats Abroad
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia



Top priority has to be winning this one, but I'm feeling pretty good about now. Having all the other good people already out of contention and/or slipping badly is regrettable. I'd like to see at least 3 really good choices still in at this point, and who knows? One of them might rise.

I'm so glad Biden's still doing well. He's a solid liberal and has been a uniting, positive force from the beginning. I believe his lead in itself has been saying good things about our electorate's aspirations. We must win and restore and strengthen our democracy for everyone. Every issue depends on the success of that one.

Warren's an amazing alternative, aspirational in a different style, and has encouragingly broad appeal, so I'll be watching to see if her promises of dynamic solution-advances can unite a working majority as large and reliable as his in her different style. Also watching and wondering: Could Hillary's electoral victory have mostly smashed a glass ceiling that actually grew thicker and razor wire-embedded in 2016?

For now, though, Warren's candidacy seems to be solving a serious problem that her failing to run in 2016 helped create, and I'm very grateful for that.

[Peacetrain]

24. That is where hubby and I are at.. for the first time ever

we have split.. he is Warren and I am Biden.. I really like Buttigieg also.. but Amy Klobuchar is moving fast here.. There have been some real dropping numbers for a variety of reasons in Iowa and looking at the numbers nationwide.. Time to get down to ideas that we can back up.. way too many people in this time.. but no one can say that the party had its finger on the button for one person.. that is a good thing..

[Hortensis]

30. :) Ah, too bad. If you're split, though, what would that make me?

To me Biden and Warren are quite alike in the direction and for what ultimate goals they want to take America. They have to create pictures of themselves as very different choices to grab attention, but for real differences just flick the eyes right, to the swamp. Their biggest differences relate to what methods and timetables are better, and those are real. But in the end, two different versions of universal healthcare are both universal healthcare. I have preferences, of course, but they don't threaten to tear me apart.

As for what no one can say about the DNC, oh come on! Of course they can. And do. Truth's irrelevant if it doesn't make a good weapon or byline. Just look what happened in 2016.

Every election the presidential candidates create themselves as predeveloped products, potential billion-dollar corporations supposed to be already up and running. In terms of the massive endorsement and money power she put together, Hillary was more like Amazon, Walmart, Microsft compared to the other candidates. So big that she was able to quickly raise $200 million from Democratic power centers when she discovered the DNC was basically destitute and couldn't put on the primary debates. It would have been far more accurate to say that Hillary put her finger on the button to resuscitate the moribund DNC, but she really had no choice. Those who can, do.

Btw, thank goodness we have a very qualified -- and principled -- professional heading the DNC now, instead of an incompetent and immoral talking-head figurehead, whose appointment was a huge indication of neglect and decline during the Obama administration. Tom Perez also heads newly defined and expanded functions.

[Demsrule86]

14. I don't see Warren winning the nomination though. I don't think she can take

the rust belt states we need. I like strong coffee to...we make espresso...and if I am out of milk, I drink it black!

[Peacetrain]

23. Hey Dems.. I am known for my battery acid coffee..

here you go

[BlueMississippi]

13. Sanders should drop out. He is done. nt

[Peacetrain]

22. I am not seeing a lot of movement here for Sen Sanders..

I live in Iowa..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I believe this is the poll

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287284731

[Peacetrain]

21. Thanks DSB!.. I had thought Sen Warren jumped 5 but I probably misread the TV

that is where I got my numbers from.. Biden up 8 and Klobuchar up 4.. yep that is the same.. if this is specifically going after early caucus goers.. that would be our Democratic base.. and it is the most progressive group anywhere.. that is great numbers for Biden and Warren.. the one that is knocking me for a lop is Amy Klobuchar.. that is a 50% jump ..she has to be jumping for joy.. I had not heard that.. but the Biden and Warren numbers everyone I talked to.. that is where the election is (in Iowa).. but Amy is making some moves here

[Celerity]

16. this poll?

http://www.focusonruralamerica.com/2019/09/18/september-2019-poll-results/



http://www.focusonruralamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/190914-Iowa-Voter-Survey-memo.pdf

[Peacetrain]

19. That must be it..

because it is showing the 8 pt jump for VP Biden.. and maybe I misread it.. I thought it was a 5 point jump for Sen Warren.. looks to be 3.. but look at Sen Klobuchar.. she jumped 4.. and that is a massive move percentage wise..

[Celerity]

20. disastrous poll for Harris, she plummeted from 18% to 5%, decent poll for Pete and Klobuchar nt

[MBS]

28. Thanks for this, celerity! n/t

[Celerity]

29. yw!

[at140]

17. Warren ties Biden in this poll!

Among likely voters (IE: people who say they're going to vote in the primary) who are also registered to vote:

Warren: 26
Biden: 26
Sanders: 16
Harris: 6
Buttigieg: 6
Yang: 2
Booker: 2
O'Rourke: 1
Klobuchar: 1
Gabbard: 1
Castro: 1

[Peacetrain]

18. Then that would not be a good number for Sen Warren..

A. We do not have a primary

B. The Democratic Activists in Iowa, are the most progressive anywhere.. the fact that VP Biden and Sen Warren would be tied with that group is a whomping big move for VP Biden.. that is our far left..

[Celerity]

25. In the IA poll, it seems to be pretty clear what happened, Warren took from Bernie a bit, and Biden,

Klobuchar and Pete all took from the collapsing Harris.

Steyer seems to have popped up now, and I assume his 3% perhaps came from undecideds whom he has garnered with his adverts there.

[Peacetrain]

26. You have me there.. on Steyer..

He is appealing to someone...but I have yet to talk to anyone who has put Steyer as their first choice.. though many have appreciated his commercials highlighting what Trump has done and not done..

[Celerity]

27. 1 of my favourite posters here, Autumn, is the only one I can remember with Steyer for their choice

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=120626