**Brand Spaking New IA Poll Shows Joe on Top and Bernie Sinking** JB 25% EW 23% MP 12% BS 9%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.focusonruralamerica.com/2019/09/18/september-2019-poll-results/

[Demsrule86]

1. I think Biden is likely to win Iowa...but even if Warren and Biden tie in Iowa and in New Hamshire..

he wins the south and the mid west and becomes the nominee.

[Demsrule86]

2. Thanks.

[still_one]

3. Klobuchar has moved up significantly

[calguy]

29. Amy is from neighboring Minnesota

That helps her a lot in Iowa. I hope she moves higher. She's my second choice and first choice for VP.

[still_one]

31. Midwest

[Peacetrain]

4. Is this the same one that MSNBC had up this morning.. or do we have 2 new Iowa polls

either way I am thrilled to see some numbers in Iowa after so long, and see VP Biden up..

[peggysue2]

5. x1000!

Good way to start the morning, peacetrain!

[Peacetrain]

6. Oh you bet!!! I am smiling ear to ear

coffee up

[Thekaspervote]

26. Me too!!

[True Dough]

7. Look at Warren

nipping at Biden's heels. She could very well overtake him.

[brooklynite]

8. Interesting bounce for Klobuchar (+4)

[BeyondGeography]

9. Looks like Iowans are warming to moderate alternatives to Biden

This thing is just getting started.

[Scurrilous]

10. K&R

[Celerity]

11. Good poll for Pete, Warren, Biden, and Klobuchar, Bad poll for Sanders, disastrous for Harris

Harris has crashed out from 18% to 5%. Ouch

[BlueMississippi]

12. BS in single digits

He should drop out - it is over.

[Celerity]

16. Harris is looking (if one is simply looking at this one poll) even worse, dropped from 18 to 5

That is one of the biggest same poll over same poll collapses I have seen all year.

[BlueMississippi]

17. But one time BS was at 45%

now 9%

He is well-known, his plans and programs are well known. People have rejected him. The only way for him is downhill....

[JI7]

22. even was he 45 ?

[BlueMississippi]

25. Another time around. Not this cycle. nt

[Celerity]

37. he was never near 45% in any poll I can find anywhere going back to the 4th quarter of 2018

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287284731#post36

[Celerity]

36. Sanders was never remotely near 45% in this poll, the highest he ever was 17% in March

The highest Sanders ever was nationally in a RCP approved poll was 27% in 3 Morning Consults polls back at the end of February, beginning of March, and one freak outlier Emerson poll in June.

He has never been anywhere near 45% in an Iowa poll, or any other legit regularly-polled state's poll, that is ludicrous.





If you have some evidence of his 45% support in regards to the 2020 election, then by all means, do post it.


I also said (in regards to Harris's crash out) POLL OVER POLL, meaning from one poll to the next one in a linear (time-wise) fashion.

[Blue_true]

34. My guess is if Harris does not do well in the Iowa caucus, she drops out.

If her funding dries up, she may drop out before the caucus.

I really don't see Senator Sanders dropping out, even if it becomes clear that he should.

[Thekaspervote]

27. One can wish. It would be the gracious thing to do following super Tues. unfortunately....

[njhoneybadger]

13. In 1992 Bill Clinton got 3%

just saying

[Drunken Irishman]

14. In 1992, no candidate contested Iowa because Tom Harkin was running.

[left-of-center2012]

15. More bad news for Harris @ 5%

[Skya Rhen]

18. The 3 debates allowed voters to get to know her better, so why on earth is she sinking in the polls?

[left-of-center2012]

19. "Why on earth is she sinking in the polls?"

The 3 debates allowed voters to get to know her better.

[Kahuna7]

20. On MSNBC this morning Jason Johnson cited her laugh...

as part of the reason she's not catching on.

[Tarheel_Dem]

23. Countdown to a "staff shakeup"? n/t

[emmaverybo]

28. Punished for being good looking and having fun? I don't like the tactic she used against Biden,

or Hallinan, but I can’t account for the huge drop. Lots of folks after first debate were pretty
impressed. She has tremendous presence.
I didn’t see her heart in the second debate. She wasn’t as present.

I like her realistic proposals. And her sense of getting on the inside to effect change is exactly what
needs doing and is such a challenge, so I admire her for braving that all through.

I’m definitely sticking with Biden, but observe the pitfalls of stardom. Folks want to take you down.

[oasis]

21. Joe's tops.

[Gothmog]

24. Sanders has parted ways with his Iowa political director,

Link to tweet

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) parted ways with his Iowa political director in recent weeks, his campaign confirmed Wednesday, part of a series of recent staff shake-ups in key early states.

The campaign announced in March that Jess Mazour would be political director in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, part of a first wave of early state hires. She is no longer on the team.....

The Sanders campaign has made other recent staffing moves in early nominating states, including New Hampshire, where state director Joe Caiazzo was replaced with Shannon Jackson, who ran Sanders’s 2018 Senate reelection bid. Caiazzo will now head up the Sanders campaign operation in his home state of Massachusetts.

Kurt Ehrenberg, a New Hampshire senior adviser whose hiring was announced by the campaign the same day as Mazour’s was in March, is no longer with the campaign. Ehrenberg and Caiazzo had clashed over the past few months.

[Blue_true]

35. Maybe the issue isn't the state staff, just saying.

Senator Warren seems to move seamlessly from state to state.

[dsc]

30. As I see Buttigieg rise I still can't quite believe it

to be honest, Iowa and New Hampshire are good states for a gay candidate. Iowa was the third state while New Hampshire the fifth to permit marriage equality. New Hampshire has a gay Congressman who represents have the state who was previously a state wide elected official. But still, Buttigieg is actually performing well. If he gets a ticket out of Iowa (top three) and one out of NH (again top three) he will get to see some states with large LGBT populations in March (Georgia, California, Massachusetts, Illinois, North Carolina to name some). Pretty amazing.

[dawg day]

32. MP! I wasn't sure who you meant! PB-

That's pretty high for him.

Warren is pretty popular there. Her personal politics style must be appealing.

[Blue_true]

33. Consistent with trends that we have been seeing.

Warren is closing in on Biden. Barring no upsets, the race in Iowa and New Hampshire will be between those two.