shocking result: Only 9% of Democratic primary voters say they've made up their minds

[bluewater]

Joe Biden is still ahead. But Elizabeth Warren is closing in.
By Paul Waldman

A new poll out from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal contains a shocking result: Only 9 percent of Democratic primary voters say they’ve made up their minds about whom they’re going to vote for. Nine percent!

Nevertheless, this and other polls show a race that has a particular shape: Joe Biden is holding, Elizabeth Warren is rising, Bernie Sanders is stuck, and everyone else is struggling or fading.

Depending on which candidate you support, just describing this lay of the land may seem unfair. But so is the entire process. And if you think the horse-race distracts from the real issues, please read what I’ve recently written about climate change, health care, national security, immigration, homelessness, gun policy, or many other issues.
To repeat, the process is unfair. We don’t choose party nominees based on who’d make the best president. Kamala Harris, for instance, seems like a capable public servant with much to recommend her, but her campaign has been hampered by her inability to offer a guiding theme, a rationale for her candidacy that communicates to voters why she and only she ought to be the nominee. In most polls she’s mired in the single digits (in the NBC/WSJ poll she gets only 5 percent, down from 13 percent the last time they conducted their survey).

If you look at charts showing the progression of the race (see here or here), you see that the only candidate with a steady upward trajectory is Warren. While she trails Biden in most polls, she often matches him or even beats him on alternative measures, like which candidates voters are considering or how favorable they feel toward them (see here, for example). Some Iowa polls have shown her ahead there, such as this new Civiqs/Iowa State University poll, which has her at 24 percent and Biden and Sanders both at 16 percent.

And right now, Warren is in the heart of a cycle every candidate yearns for. Reporters on the campaign trail have said for some time that she is the one who generates the most enthusiastic response among voters on the ground. A rise in her poll standing inevitably produces stories about what she’s doing right, stories that get filled with the impressions those reporters have accumulated.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/18/joe-biden-is-still-ahead-elizabeth-warren-is-closing/

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. It is still waaaaay to early.

[bluewater]

3. The OP says: Only 9% have made up their mind.

A new poll out from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal contains a shocking result: Only 9 percent of Democratic primary voters say they’ve made up their minds about whom they’re going to vote for. Nine percent!

So, yeah, we all agree it's early.

[thesquanderer]

16. Yes, too early. I don't consider my mind made up. I've already changed my preference twice.

And depending on what happens between now and my primary day, I might change it again.

[mitch96]

36. +1 Like trying to predict a hurricane in Miami when it's a rainstorm off Africa..... nt

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

39. Not for me!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[mountain grammy]

2. I really don't see how that's shocking!

We have a lot of candidates, all qualified, all competent and all a millions times better than the idiot in chief. We will vote for the nominee. The convention is still months away and there’s an impeachment to attend to. No shock, no hurry.

[still_one]

6. Exactly

[TryLogic]

34. Yes. It is called open mindedness for persons who are paying attention and trying to vote wisely.

I hope it was not manipulated by media who would like to sell lots of ads. Tight race with lots of undecideds means $$ revenue for TV ads. Watch out for for-profit media.

[still_one]

4. That momentum for Senator Warren is mostly coming from those moving from Sanders to Warren, and i

some from Harris to Warren

Undecided voters are just that, undecided. I have been saying this for some time that a significant number are still undecided, that is not being factored in most of the polls headlines

To assume those undecided voters will break one way or another is pure guessing

There are too many variables at play, and it is still months off before the first caucus/primary

Also, national polls are very misleading. States determine the president, not the popular vote

[thesquanderer]

19. re: "national polls are very misleading. States determine the president, not the popular vote"

The polls being discussed are for the nomination, not the general. No electoral college variable. That said, a national poll does not tell you which Dem candidate will do better in which states, or by how much, so it's not really an indicator of who will get how many delegates, either.

[still_one]

30. Primary or GE election it is a similar argument

[thesquanderer]

37. GE polls should be looked at by state, to see who would win electorally. But...

...primary polls don't matter no matter how you look at them.

By that I mean, I care about GE polls, because they may actually influence who I will vote for in the primary. (I will not vote for someone in the primary who will likely get clobbered by Trump in the general.)

But primary polls are just horse race stuff. They will not influence my vote, and I doubt they will influence anyone's votes. They're just fodder for conversation and prediction.

[still_one]

38. I think state polls apply to both

[Thekaspervote]

24. You are right! Here's an article might interest you

Warren and Sanders supporters have astonishingly little in commom

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548

[still_one]

43. Thanks

[Sherman A1]

5. More manufactured drama

Gosh, I'm Shocked.........

[still_one]

7. Well said

[peggysue2]

12. Yeah, me too

The drama factory is in high gear.

[bluewater]

14. What drama?

That a major poll says only 9% of Democratic primary voters have made up their mind?

Most people responding in this thread say that it isn't surprising and it's true.

Personally, I find it a little surprising, considered how committed many Biden, Warren and Sanders supporters are, but hey...

the polls are what the polls are

[peggysue2]

18. Yes, the polls are what they are

And Joe Biden is still leading despite the creative framing.

[bluewater]

20. Yes, and as everyone in this thread is saying... it's early.

hey, but what about only 9% having decided on a candidate?

I seem to be one of the few people in this thread that thinks that number is surprising low, I mean, for example, there are tons of committed Biden and Sanders supporters out there.

But, the NBC/WSJ Poll is well respected, so maybe they unearthed something significant, that only 9% of voters have actually made up their minds.

So, the race is still totally undecided? Ok... I can easily live with that.

the polls are what the polls are

[Thekaspervote]

25. Indeed he is..I'm sure an enviable position for the other candidates

[aggiesal]

42. Shocked, shocked, I say, ...

There's gambling going on in this establishment?

"Here's your winnings, sir!"

[Pacifist Patriot]

8. Is it safe to assume he's being sarcastic since the primaries are still months away?

[Hoyt]

9. Actually, I think that is good. My primary is March, 2020. A lot can happen between now and then.

[bluewater]

13. I agree, it is a good thing.

I am a little surprised though that the NBC/WSJ poll results say only 9% of the voters have made up their minds already.

Honestly, I think Biden and Sanders and Warren all have a lot of committed supporters, for example.

But, as I like to say...

the polls are what the polls are

[revmclaren]

10. I'm not shocked at all.

We are months away from any primary voting and well over a year from the election.

This is the most important election that our nation has ever faced. Many want to see how the candidates present their message and how they plan to implement their ideas. Many voters have already made up their minds on who they support but don't like to give out that info to pollsters or others.

We at DU have a more 'in your face' expression of politics that the country in general doesn't follow.

As time goes by, it will become clear who Democrats support as their candidate.

So take a breath and be patient.


ONLY!!! 2019 and beyond.

[flor-de-jasmim]

11. It's not shocking at all - I'd be shocked if the majority had already made up their minds.

[bluewater]

17. I'd be shocked if the majority had made up their minds already too... but only 9%?

That's a pretty small percentage.

But NBC/WSJ Poll is well respected, so...

the polls are what the polls are

[Amimnoch]

23. I don't think it's really that shocking. I also don't think it's that cut and dry.

"Have you made up your mind on a primary candidate for 2020?" If you look here at my signature, it would give the impression that I've made up my mind. I've changed it once already from Beto. I'm not closed to changing it again at all. So, my own mind isn't really totally made up either.

We have a HUGE field that's only whittled down a little, Iowa's just shy of a half year away yet before it really kicks off. Frankly, as long as the name isn't Bernie Sanders, I'm sticking with whomever shows strongest in the battleground states when matched up against trump. If that starts to swing to Sen. Warren, I'll be ordering her yard sign, kicking in some donations and volunteering. Mine's just one of MANY different approaches we're taking. Being part of the "Big tent" definitely has advantages, but there's also some drawbacks.. a big one is we'll never be as unified as the tRumpublicans. Something I both love and hate

[IronLionZion]

15. It's about 4.5 months until Iowa caucuses

so a lot can happen before people start voting. It's good for Dem voters to take our times and evaluate candidates since we have many great options. I switched a few times and currently supporting Warren.

We do NOT want to end up like the GOP who nominated the worst possible option in 2016.

[mcar]

21. Which is why the constant focus on polls right now

does not make sense. Where was Pres. Obama in the polls at this point in 2007?

There's plenty of time.

[qazplm135]

27. he was a solid second

not very far from Hillary, about where Warren is now more or less.

Of course, it was really a two person race at that point with Edwards bringing up a fairly distant third.

[Raven123]

22. The author is shocked to learn that voters know the election is in 2020,and they have time to decide

[Algernon Moncrieff]

31. True, but...

The Iowa Caucus, which will apparantly decide who we ultimately elect, is on February 3.

[OAITW r.2.0]

26. Shockingly, 99%* of all undecideds will pull the lever, push a button,

Or punch a card for whoever is the Democratic candidate in the general election.

*Source: me

[Srkdqltr]

28. It is almost a year until the election.

Anything can happen. The 3 front runners may be distant also runs by this time next year. Things change in a heartbeat.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

29. Not shocking from my point of view

Many many candidates with similar messaging. Let's get this down to 3-5 and then we can talk.

[griloco]

32. Shocking? Hardly...made up my mind...I vote for the D...

[murielm99]

33. I don't see anything shocking about this.

Most people do not pay as much attention to politics as we do here at DU.

People will not begin to pay attention until just before the primary. That is when we need to get out and publicize our candidates and GOTV. Most people will wait until six weeks before the election to pay attention. Then, after the election, many of them will gripe about the political ads and whine about how happy that the election season is over.

[CaptainTruth]

35. I've made up my mind: Whoever the nominee is. Period.

[Gothmog]

40. Biden appears to have the more committed supporters

Link to tweet

Biden consistently has commanded a staggering lead among black voters. Two-thirds of black voters over 65 are backing Biden, as well as 42 percent of black voters overall; Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) comes in a distant second with about 12 percent support. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is down at 8 percent and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg is not even registering at 1 percent.

This sounds like a pretty interesting story. Instead, “frontrunner, but …” is a common refrain. Consider the new Axios-NewsWhip 2020 tracker that found Biden has been bombarded by negative coverage. Of the 100 stories about Biden that got the most social media attention, 77 were negative. Presumably, the same is true of cable news.

Even with the magnification of Biden’s gaffe-du-jour and the flow of media admiration of Warren’s surge — both of which reflect a true story — Biden’s backers are the most committed. Nearly 65 percent of his supporters say they’ll definitely support him, as opposed to just 34 percent of those who support other candidates.....

Why is it so hard for people to grasp that Biden isn’t just the most “electable” but, rather, the candidate with positions most in line with Democrats’ preferences? His platform is made up of policies that poll incredibly well and his supporters aren’t masking their love for progressives in favor of a safe bet. They like Joe.

[rainin]

41. I am enthusiastic about both Warren and Buttigieg.

I'm happy with Kamala. I will vote for any democrat.

I would hold my nose to vote for Biden or Sanders. I believe Tulsi Gabbard is on the Russian payroll. I hope she's removed soon.

So, I might be counted as undecided because we have a long way to go.

[StarfishSaver]

44. Why is that shocking?

The campaign hasn't really even begun and everyone isn't as obsessed as we are.

I'm paying very close attention and haven't made up MY mind yet.

[gldstwmn]

45. I don't find that shocking.