SurveyUSA NATIONAL post-debate poll: Biden 33%, Warren 19%, Sanders 17%, Harris 6%, Buttigieg 5%,

[highplainsdem]

O'Rourke & Booker 4%, Yang 3%, all others 1% or less

Biden and Warren's numbers are unchanged since SurveyUSA's July poll. Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg are each down 3 points. O'Rourke, Booker and Yang are each up 3 points.


This poll shows Biden with 42% of the black vote, Sanders with 23%, Warren with 10%, Harris with 7% and Booker with 6%.

Sanders leads with 18-34 year olds -- 33% -- followed by Biden with 19% and Warren with 17%.

Biden leads with all the other age groups.


Btw, SurveyUSA is rated an A in FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings.


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=af31ac4e-3786-426b-828e-6359cb6c34bb

Record player or no record player, Joe Biden remains Joe Biden at this hour, drawing 33% of the vote in a crowded field, almost exactly as he has done in previous SurveyUSA polling and comparable to what Biden has done in hypothetical nationwide primary polls conducted by other researchers. This fresh research was newly gathered for SurveyUSA media clients nationwide.

At this hour, 139 days to the Iowa Caucus, 168 days to Super Tuesday, the utterly nonvolatile Democratic support lines-up as follows:

* Gravity-defying Biden, 33%, unchanged from SurveyUSA poll conducted after July Detroit debate.
* Elizabeth Warren, 19%, unchanged from SurveyUSA poll conducted after July Detroit debate.
* Bernie Sanders, 17%, down 3 points, from 20%.
* Kamala Harris, 6%, down 3 points, from 9%.
* Pete Buttigieg, 5%, down 3 points, from 8%
* Beto O'Rourke, 4%, up 3 points, from 1%
* Cory Booker, 4%, up 3 points, from 1%.
* Andrew Yang, 3%, up from zero.
* Others, 1% or less.

Likely Democratic Primary Voters nationwide were asked which Democrats, if the party's nominee, would defeat Donald Trump in a general election:

* 8% say Amy Klobuchar would defeat Trump.
* 9% say Andrew Yang would defeat Trump.
* 9% say Julian Castro would defeat Trump.
* 16% say Buttigieg would defeat Trump.
* 17% say O'Rourke would defeat Trump.
* 17% say Booker would defeat Trump.
* 25% say Harris would defeat Trump.
* 43% say Sanders would defeat Trump.
* 45% say Warren would defeat Trump.
* 61% say Biden would defeat Trump.
* 3% of Likely Democratic Primary voters say no Democrat will defeat Trump.

As with the SurveyUSA California poll I posted the results for yesterday, Biden's the only Democratic canddate that more than 50% of the poll respondents thought would defeat Trump.

[ritapria]

1. Survey USA is a verygood polling organization

They have a very good track record and don't skew results to favor anyone particular candidate

[Thekaspervote]

2. As has been pointed out in various posts the 50% threshold is significant in securing a win.

Not just in this election cycle but several in the past

[bluewater]

3. A good poll for Joe Biden!

the polls are what the polls are

[peggysue2]

4. That 61% number blows it out of the water

And despite all the caterwauling, electability (beating Trump over the head) is still a thing with the electorate. Because:

WINNING IS EVERYTHING in 2020 which includes the Electoral College battlefield where we will live or die. We learned that sorry lesson from 2016 and cannot afford a retake for any reason.

Thanks for the update, highplainsdem. Joe Biden is proving his resilience and electability. Or as the writer pointed out: record player or no record player!

[thesquanderer]

6. But that 61% figure is about who people think OTHER people would vote for.

It is interesting from a psychological perspective, but doesn't actually tell you anything about how people would vote.

[peggysue2]

10. What that number reinforces are the polls that say electability is at the forefront . . .

of the elector's mind and choice, that they would choose someone who has the best chance of beating Trump over preferred policy recommendations. These polls have been running since the start and the electability preference has shown up consistently. Is it a slam dunk measurement. No. But it's an indication of how voters are gauging the various candidates' strengths. For Biden? It's his ability to kick Donald Trump to the curb. Without which we and the rest of country are headed for dark, dark times.

[thesquanderer]

12. The poll question "who do you think is most electable" is to some extent a gauge of...

...who the articles they've read have told them is most electable. If you follow and believe the polls, then you have to answer that question with "Biden."

And even though electability is a very important issue, people don't necessarily choose to support who they think is MOST electable, if someone else they prefer also seems perfectly electable... as evidence by polls that show that a greater percentage of respondents say they think Biden is most electable than the percentage of respondents who say that he is the candidate they would vote for today.

[Skya Rhen]

5. This poll is almost identical to Morning Consult - Biden 32, Sanders 20, Warren 18, Harris 6,

Buttigieg 5, O'Rourke 4, Booker 3, Yang 3

[StevieM]

7. To me that is a good sign that this is about where the race currently stands, at least nationally.

My gut tells me that Bernie will not be a finalist, meaning in the top two, in Iowa and New Hampshire. I have a feeling that the race will ultimately come down to Biden and Warren.

[bootcamp]

8. yes

with Warren as his running mate lol

[Indykatie]

9. I Could Fall in Love With a Biden/Beto Ticket Too

I think's Biden's electability % is so high because if we assume that Dems will crawl to the polls if they have to in 2020 to vote without being "motivated or energized" which I do, then Biden is best positioned to pick up some GOP support beyond the "never Trumpers". That would put states like AZ, OH, and even TX in play.

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. I would love to see a Biden/Beto ticket, but can you imagine the outrage from certain quarters...

if Biden doesn't choose a minority or a woman? He might win back the Obama states, but for some it will be confirmation that Joe is "racist", and possibly "misogynistic". Of course it wouldn't be true, but sadly that won't stop folks from making the allegation.

[Cha]

11. KR!

[Scurrilous]

13. K&R

[Demsrule86]

15. This will leave a mark.