New poll shows Andrew Yang beating Kamala Harris in California

[Hassin Bin Sober]

Yikes

New poll shows Andrew Yang beating Kamala Harris in California


https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/andrew-yang-kamala-harris-california-2020-14447245.php

The poll had Yang at 7%, a slight edge over Harris' 6%, among California Democratic primary voters. Neither are in the top tier of candidates, however; Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., were tied for the top spot with 26%, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., at 20%.

[MadDAsHell]

1. I was so sure that insinuating Biden was a racist was a winning long-term strategy. nt

[madville]

31. I can see her dropping out after the first four contests at this point

It would be embarrassing to only draw single digit support and come in 4th or worse in her home state, she may be out before Super Tuesday.

[DrFunkenstein]

33. She Would Have Done Better Attacking Him On His Crime Bill Than Busing

It would have established her as a prosecutor who fought against draconian laws from the inside - much more like a winning brand. Instead, she had to backtrack on busing. Coupled with her backtracking on health care, it branded her as flimsy rather than steely.

I'm surprised she hasn't done better, but these little tactical mistakes can be quite costly.

[Iggo]

2. LOL...seven percent ain't winnin'.

Neither is six, to be sure.

But that poll shows neither of them beating anyone...lol.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. Kamala is from California. Realistically she should be beating everybody there

[uberblonde]

8. Except that she's gotten the same troll and bot attacks as Hillary did.

Anyone who spends a lot of time on Twitter can see there's an organized plan to go after her. It's ugly. I'm not a Kamala supporter, but I hate seeing candidates getting attacked like this.

[Tiggeroshii]

13. Hillary's attacks were decades in the making.

What's Harris's excuse?

[OilemFirchen]

19. She's a black woman?

Pretty sure that gives her a monstrous head start. On both the right and the left.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

26. She has none, having already won statewide office in CA... Yang is just a great candidate.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

23. YES! That is obvious. n/t

[Iggo]

9. Harris.

And yes, I expected her to be doing a lot better at this point.

[Tiggeroshii]

3. ohhh that's bad.

[Indykatie]

10. Harris and Beto Are Both Polling Poorly in Their Home States

It's hard to have people see you as having a shot at winning it all when you can't even win your own state.

[TexasTowelie]

15. The polls I've studied indicate that Beto is in either second or third place in Texas

and in double digits. If he is at 15% or more, then he will be awarded delegates to the national convention. Most of the polls for Texas are indicating that Beto is exceeding 15%.

[left-of-center2012]

17. Beto is in either second or third place in Texas

Can you share those polls with us?
Thanks

[TexasTowelie]

22. Do your own research.

I'm sure you know how to use Google.

[left-of-center2012]

29. Thank you

I suspected he was doing poorly there.

[TexasTowelie]

34. Then your suspicions are incorrect.

As I stated ;previously, Beto was either in second or third in the polls in Texas.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-6875.html

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/09/11/beto-orourke-falls-behind-joe-biden-elizabeth-warren-texas/

[TexasTowelie]

35. And in case that you missed it:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287287642

[madville]

30. Latest poll had him at 12% in TX

He'll fade to single digits in TX after poor showings in IA, NH, SC, and NV. People will start jumping on the bus with a top tier candidate after those contests.

[TexasTowelie]

36. No, here is the latest poll:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287287642

[JI7]

21. Beto is not polling poorly in his state. Castro is the one is low

even though the media keeps pushing him.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

14. No surprise though.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[George II]

5. NO CAPS?

[JI7]

6. Harris still has time to turn things around

[msongs]

7. a poll of my apartment showed everyone on the planet ahead of yang lol nt

[BlueMississippi]

11. lol

[MichMan]

12. The Asian population in California is pretty large

That likely helped Andrew Yang in polls to some extent

[TexasTowelie]

16. So it is essentially a tie between the two candidates

within the margin of error.

[left-of-center2012]

18. Brian Williams on MSNBC tonight ...

Brian Williams on MSNBC tonight was talking about how Harris just hasn't caught fire,
and is falling in the polls.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

27. I think that attack on Biden, with the pre-printed t-shirts was the beginning of the end for Harris.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

20. No responsible pollster would call a 1% difference a "lead" or an "edge."

In the world of polling statistics, Harris and Yang are tied. The probable results could be anywhere within the margin of error or credibility interval of 3.3 percent. A 1% difference is well within the 3.3 percent, so they are tied.

Also, this poll isn't a traditional poll with a stated margin of error. It uses an online panel and reports something called a "Credibility Interval" (which isn't accepted by all pollsters). Take any poll like this with an even bigger grain of salt than most polls.

The California Emerson College poll was conducted September 13-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=830, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, party, ethnicity and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=498) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=332).

[gldstwmn]

24. Everybody loves their rich uncle.

[Celerity]

25. unless he was Epstein or Savile

[PDittie]

28. Thanks, Tulsi!

[Otto Lidenbrock]

32. She's not been campaigning much over the summer and one of the few times she did she made a blunder

When someone said Trump is retarded and she went along with it laughing got her in a bit of a backlash.

But her team are making moves to kickstart the campaign. I expect her to make gains, her debate performance last week was solid.