Interesting factoid from CNN last night on polls

[NewJeffCT]

My wife had CNN on last night and I'm not sure if it was Chris Cuomo or Don Lemon, but one of them made a great point last night on these "early" polls that show Biden winning big over Trump, and Warren, Sanders and Harris also winning handily. I think they were talking about a poll from Fox News that had just come out. (I was in and out of the room looking for one of our cats outside)

In September 2015, the same poll had Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by 47% to 45% - so, almost the exact numbers as the final results nationally 14 months later.

So, we can hope history repeats itself in terms of polls - Biden up double digits, Sanders and Warren close to double digits and Harris up by (I think) 6

[33taw]

1. Did the poll factor in Russian interference?

[NewJeffCT]

8. the 47-45 poll from last year

seemed to have factored it in

[33taw]

10. Honestly, I don't give much credence to any poll. There are too many external factors.

[dawg day]

2. We have to get around the racist undemocratic electoral college system.

How many states have to flip to the Dem this time?
Here's an interactive map: https://www.270towin.com/

There are a few ways other than getting the three Rust Belt states -- MI, WI, PA-- back to blue... We'd probably never win Texas, but that would do it in one fell swoop.

[Celerity]

7. If we win WI, PA, and MI, Trump on has 3 remotely possible paths to win, and 2 are 269-269 ties

where he would win in the House, as the Rethugs control 26 (each state gets 1 vote, 26 needed to win the POTUS) state delegations and neither of the 2 close ones they control (FL and WI) are likely to change in 2020 due to RW gerrymandering.

The 2 states he would need to flip are NV and NH, and then to win 270 he needs to win both NE-2 and ME-2. If he loses either (but not both) NE-2 or ME-2, and still wins NV and NH, then it is 269-269 and the House will elect elect him (unless there was a rogue elector either way who did not just vote for someone different, but voted for the opposite candidate). IF we do, by some miracle, flip FL or WI or both, then the Senate would pick the VP, who would become POTUS, and IF the the Senate is also tied 50-50, then the Speaker of the House would become POTUS until the deadlocks are resolved. The 12th Amendment gives the House until the fourth day of March to select a president. The Senate has no time frame for VP.

the article below explains this

https://www.thoughtco.com/when-presidential-election-is-a-tie-3322063

With 50 votes in the House and 100 votes in the Senate, there could still be tie votes for both president and vice president. Under the 12th Amendment, as amended by the 20th Amendment, if the House has failed to select a new president by Jan. 20, the vice president-elect serves as acting president until the deadlock is resolved. In other words, the House keeps voting until the tie is broken.

This assumes that the Senate has selected a new vice president. If the Senate has failed to break a 50-50 tie for vice president, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 specifies that the Speaker of the House will serve as acting president until tie votes in both the House and Senate have been broken.

Let us all hope there is NOT a 269-269 ties in ANY (not just the 2 I listed, they are other more likely than those 2 ways to get to 269-269) scenario, as the country will tear itself apart. And lets hope that we win BOTH NV and NH (or one at a bare minimum) so the MI, PA, WI going Blue scenario means we 99% most likely win. The only 3 states I can see even at 5% chance of Rump flipping I have not mentioned are CO, MN, and VA, all highly highly unlikely, especially IF he loses all the others that he needs to even turn one of those 3 into a must win for him. BTW, a NH and NV loss by Rump, but wins NE-2 and ME-2, loses WI, MI, PA, BUT somehow against all odds, flips CO only, is another 269-269 tie nightmare. Either of he other 2 (MN, VA) give him a 270 or more straight win. IF we are talking about Rump winning one of those 3 (CO, MN, VA), that bodes really bad for us, really bad, as in blowout (at least EC wise) bad. I see almost no chance of that atm.

the maps

The only feasible outright win for Trump IF we win WI, PA, MI



and the two 269-269 routes

Same as above, but he wins ME-2, and loses NE-2



Same as above, but he wins NE-2, and loses ME-2




IF we lose WI, MI, and PA again, it comes down to 3 states, of which we have to win 2 of the 3

FL (in any scenario for a win we HAVE to win FL)

an

AZ and/or NC

We can lose either one of NH or NV as long as we win NC and FL. We can NOT lose both NV and NH and NOT just MN either, UNLESS we flip IA, then we could lose a combo of NH and NV, OR just MN and still win, and we could even lose MN AND NH (not MN and NV) and still win 270-268 by flipping IA but losing MN, as long as we flip BOTH ME-2 and NE-2 as well, which is an almost impossible combo for all those last case scenarios to happen. IF we win FL, NE-2, ME-2, IA, MN, and NV (so sweep all but NC) and still lose NC, we lose via a 269-269 tie. There is almost no way get around not winning NC or AZ AND FL (the must win) if we lose WI, MI, and PA. There is almost zero chance we lose NC but win GA and/ or TX. IF we win AZ and FL but lose NC, then the only route to win IF we lose just NH is to flip BOTH NE-2 and ME-2. Even if we win AZ and FL but lose NC, a loss in MN does us in, unless we also win BOTH NH and IA (plus flip both NE-2 and ME-2) as well, which is also a damn near impossible scenario, as the odds of us losing MN but still winning ALL of AZ, FL, IA, NH, NE-2, and ME-2 are crazy low, .

winning FL and NC (and we still win even if we lose either NV or NH, just not both, and NOT just MN, unless we flip IA as well)





winning FL and AZ

[underpants]

3. Free advertising for Trump on all channels and all of them calling the election early

Were the biggest factors (at least 50%) that got us to this disaster

[padah513]

5. +1

I agree 100%

[Cicada]

4. The state polls for PA, MI and WI were off by 6%

Those state polls, the final ones, overstated Hillary by about 6%. The national polls were accurate. PA is the state which matters. A lot of old people, a lot of white people. We must win PA or another state loaded with old whites, Florida. Warren proposes an immediate increase in every social security check of $200. Fully funded by lifting the $128,000 social security tax wage cap. Taxing the top 2% more and it is fully funded.minthink this is a proposal that can win PA and Florida.

[Funtatlaguy]

6. Our candidate and the DNC have to reputably poll those states.

Hire several polling companies to make sure we know what’s going on there.
No surprises. No Russian or GOP suppression.
We can’t lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania again.

[NewJeffCT]

9. I was surprised

when I looked it up a year or two back, but there are a lot of Evangelicals in Pennsylvania as well. Dems need a candidate that will turn out voters in Philly and its suburbs and Pittsburgh.

That said, I think the right VP or presidential candidate COULD put Texas into play