Watching national head-to-head polls against Trump.

[MineralMan]

I'll be voting in the primary for the candidate with the highest margin in a head-to-head race with Trump. Period!

[Kahuna7]

1. With all the resistance to Biden if he's still polling the highest..

when voting starts, I'll be very happy to cast my vote for Biden.

[secondwind]

2. I will be voting Democrat in 2020, don't care if it is a real donkey.

[bluewater]

3. Based on which Poll(s)? Things are not so simple as one might think.

Based on which polls? They often vary.

You will be using the poll(s) for your state primary, correct? Not national polls?

Or will you base it on head to head polls in key swing states?

Will you average them?

Will you choose the "best" poll?

If you average the polls, do all polls count the same regardless of pollster ratings?

[MineralMan]

5. Based on the aggregate of polls.

So far, I think they all show Biden with the largest margin against Trump. I can only vote in my state's primary, but I'm watching nationwide. We must win in 2020. The candidate with the best chance of doing that will get my primary vote, absolutely, with no exceptions.

[bluewater]

7. Aggregate of National or key battleground state polls?

In key battleground state head to head polls Biden does not always lead, for example.

Winning the popular vote does not win the election as we all know too well.

Also what time window will you be using? Bernie Sanders has often tied Biden in head to head polling versus Trump.

[MineralMan]

9. Show me.

As for the time window, my primary is on Super Tuesday. That's when I will cast my primary vote. So, clearly, I will have to decide by then, won't I?

Key states? Well, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. That's where we lost in 2016, so they're important.

If you have information that seems important to you, please share it.

[bluewater]

10. You announced your plan, I am just asking for details about it. Please answer this simple question.

So, are you going to be aggregating NATIONAL head to head polls versus Trump, or will you be aggregating key battleground states needed to win the electoral college head to head polls?

You said you were basing your decision on who was strongest in an aggregate of head to head polling versus Trump, so did you mean in NATIONAL polls, or polls in key battleground states?

As we are all well aware, winning the popular vote does not always mean winning in the electoral college.

[MineralMan]

11. I'll be considering all of the polls, giving weight to them as

I see fit. As I said, as far as I know, right now Biden is leading in that factor everywhere. Head-to-head polling with Trump has not been done in every state.

Of course I understand the role of the Electoral College, which is why I mentioned the three states I mentioned. I've been doing politics all my adult live, and that's over 50 year. I'm not a beginner at this.

[bluewater]

14. "As I see fit" So your plan is somewhat nebulous at this point in time?

Ok...



I can easily see where one candidate can lead in the National head to head polls versus Trump and another lead in the head to head polls in key battle ground states.

"As I said, as far as I know, right now Biden is leading in that factor everywhere. Head-to-head polling with Trump has not been done in every state."

Well, a quick check of polling at RCP Polls shows that Sanders has often tied Biden in head to head polls against Trump in key states.
Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, for example.

SO, the question remains: Should NATIONAL head to head polls be given equal weight to head to head polls in key battleground stats?

Your plan of weighting these "AS I see fit." seems much less straight forward and less simple then as presented in the OP:

Watching national head-to-head polls against Trump.

I'll be voting in the primary for the candidate with the highest margin in a head-to-head race with Trump. Period!

So, by "Period!" you actually meant "As I see fit" to weight these... ok... thanks for sharing this plan...

[Doremus]

13. It will be interesting to see who's leading after either Warren or Sanders drop out.

I saw a chart that showed most of their support will transfer to the other if/when one of them drops out. If that happens I believe the survivor will have a considerable lead over Biden.

[peggysue2]

4. As will I, MM

I'm particularly focused on the electoral college, the state-to-state margins. Because that's where the real battle will be as we sadly learned last time out.

Losing is not an option.

[NurseJackie]

6. That sounds like a good plan.

[MineralMan]

8. I think so. Given the possibility of election

manipulation, the larger the margin the less chance of something screwing things up.

For the sake of the nation and my general sanity, we must win in 2020. I see no alternative.

Frankly, we will have all we can do in the next Presidential term to correct all of the harm Trump has done. That will be the challenge, not any pie-in-the-sky aspirational issues. We have to undo the harm Trump has caused as Job 1.

[Kahuna7]

16. We need to see what the state polls say. There will for certain be manipulation...

probably like we've never seen before. So we need an EC cushion that would hopefully be a counter to the states where there is manipulation.

[wysimdnwyg]

12. Congratulations

I will be voting for the person I believe will do the best job as President. It just so happens I also believe she is the best candidate to take on Trump in the general.

[bearsfootball516]

15. Same!

If that's Joe, it'll be Joe. If that's Elizabeth, it'll be Elizabeth. So far, it's pretty clearly been Joe.