New Iowa Poll Finds Warren Surging, Sanders Fading, and Biden Leading

[guillaumeb]

From the article:

A new Iowa poll shows Joe Biden with a narrow two-point lead over Elizabeth Warren as Pete Buttigieg has taken over third and Bernie Sanders is in fourth.
The new Focus On Rural America Iowa poll found, “Compared to the most recent poll in July, gains have been seen for Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar, while support for Sanders and Harris has fallen. Tom Steyer receives 3% in the first time his name was included in the menu of candidates.”

To read more:

https://www.politicususa.com/2019/09/18/iowa-democratic-poll.html

[NurseJackie]

1. I was ahead of the curve in my feelings about the BS campaign

Pete Buttigieg has taken over third and Bernie Sanders is in fourth.

I was ahead of the curve in my feelings about the BS campaign. I just can't take him seriously as someone who has the temperament and demeanor to be the "Leader of the Free World". In many ways, I think he's always known that he doesn't stand a chance at being our party's nominee.

[George II]

3. Based on this Biden and Warren will split the delegates, everyone else will be shut out.

[LanternWaste]

5. I really wanna like the guy.

But I'll be damned as far too many of his "this is troubling/this doesn't look good/this is disqualifying" supporters make that an uphill climb worthy of Sisyphus alone.

[NurseJackie]

12. It was the smears and denigration of the Democratic party and Democrats in general...

It was the smears and denigration of the Democratic party and Democrats in general that really turned me off. I'm sure I'm not alone in that. Fact of the matter is, there are more loyal Democrats who are PROUD to be Democrats than there are of the malcontents who enjoy hearing someone "hate-on" the party. That type of divisive rhetoric drove away more support than it gained. Frankly, I'll be glad when his divisive campaign is over and his angry surrogates (like Sirota and Turner and Sarandon and West) just go away and when BS returns to being the "I" Senator from Vermont.

[onetexan]

20. there is nothing believable about Bernie. I cannot support a guy who usurps the party for his

purposes then claims he's not a Dem. BS should never have been allowed to run on the Dem ticket. It urks me that he's on the tiket again, and as Hillary said, doing again what he did in 2016. The angry uncle needs to pack it in and head back to Vermont, retire from politics and sit on the porch yelling at kids.

[treestar]

18. +1

Nailed it.

[thesquanderer]

8. re: "can't take him seriously as someone who has the temperament and demeanor to be leader..."

Sadly, the bar has been lowered.

[guillaumeb]

11. I agree with Sanders' economic message,

and as to demeanor and temperament, that is such a very subjective judgement. One person's strong leader is another's unfit candidate.

[customerserviceguy]

16. Bernie's last debate performance

was awful. He's paying for it in the polls right now.

[NurseJackie]

17. This makes me happy.

[customerserviceguy]

19. I was hoping for Pete Buttigieg

to have a little bit more oomph in his debate performance, too, so I'm not totally happy. He's only got a couple more appearances before he falls below the debate thresholds. I had assumed that his second quarter fundraising would turn into ads for Pete, and maybe he's hitting Iowa with them, but I haven't seen any for him yet in SC. Gabbard has run TV ads here, and has billboards up around the state.

[NurseJackie]

22. This is just the beginning... he has a VERY bright future in the Democratic party.

I'm SURE of it!

[customerserviceguy]

23. He does

but probably not in Indiana politics. I'm hoping that he will be able to keep a high profile with a Cabinet position should he fall short of grabbing the brass ring. I think he'd be a great Secretary of State or Defense.

[George II]

2. I don't see this pollster's July poll on RCP's list of Iowa polls. Is it a poll that people....

....really find credible. Every single other poll has Biden in the high 20s (except for one in April before he announced) and they have Warren more than 10% behind Biden.

BTW, here's Politico's article about the July Poll - quite a humorous headline:

Biden’s Iowa support crumbles in new poll

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/03/bidens-iowa-support-poll-1397998

"Crumbles", yet here in September he's still #1.

[NurseJackie]

4. LOL!

"Crumbles", yet here in September he's still #1.

I know! Right?

[Cha]

21. So much for "crumbling".

[left-of-center2012]

6. From your link

Biden leads Warren 25%-23%
with Buttigieg in third at 12%.
Bernie Sanders is fourth at 9%.
Amy Klobuchar is fifth at 8%,
and Kamala Harris is sixth at 5%.

Joe Biden has gained eight points since July.
Elizabeth Warren continued her upward swing with a 3 point gain,
and Pete Buttigieg has gained two points.

Bernie Sanders lost three points since July, and eight points since March.

The biggest drop in support was for Kamala Harris who went from 18% in July to 5% in September.

(Where is Beto O'Rourke?)

[guillaumeb]

9. The Harris drop is surprising to me as well.

As to O'Rourke, my view is a Texas Senatorial run would have been better.

[George II]

15. If I read you correctly:

Biden up 8% and Warren up 3%, yet the headline is "Warren Surging...."! If going up 3% is "surging", what is going up 8% called? Almost 3X surging?

[thesquanderer]

7. Funny, I just posted how I thought Harris was going to have a hard time knocking...

...Sanders or Warren out of the top three, and now Buttigieg looks better positioned. With Harris currently 6th, she has a long way to go to meet her goal of finishing top three.

[guillaumeb]

10. That surprised me as well.

But neither Buttigieg nor Harris had much national recognition a year ago. That Warren and Biden are effectively tied in this poll is interesting.

[ritapria]

13. New Iowa Poll is probaby an outlier

This poll reports Bernie at 9% - just 1% ahead of Amy Klobuchar ...Anyone who observed the crowd he drew at the Iowa State Fair would find that poll finding to be risible at best …… CBS You/Guv has Bernie at 26% in Iowa ...Civiqs : Bernie at 16% (Tied with Biden)...Change Research : Bernie at 17% (again tied with Joe) ……

[honest.abe]

14. I suspect the Biden team is happy with this.

Caucus states with few AA voters will not be his strong point so a narrow win or even a close second is probably good enough.