Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum**GOLD STANDARD SELZER IOWA POLL** Warren on top. Sanders falls to a distant third
Elizabeth Warren has surged in Iowa, narrowly overtaking Joe Biden and distancing herself from fellow progressive Bernie Sanders, the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
Warren, the U.S. senator from Massachusetts, now holds a 2-percentage-point lead, with 22% of likely Democratic caucusgoers saying she is their first choice for president. It is the first time she has led in the Registers poll.
Former Vice President Biden, who had led each of the Registers three previous 2020 cycle polls, follows her at 20%. Sanders, the U.S. senator from Vermont, has fallen to third place with 11%.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/09/22/iowa-poll-election-2020-iowa-caucus-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-democrat-candidates/2370015001/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Rec.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,110 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Congrats to Liz
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocracyMouse
(2,275 posts)It really doesn't matter to me which Dem wins as long as they address, in a smart fashion, the rigged system... and the pile up of justice/environmental/infrastructural problems it has caused. Warren seems pretty darn near close to doing that. I like Biden. I love Bernie. But I really admire Elizabeth. I get why folks are coming around to her. The down home girl from Oklahoma with the sharp tongue and the comprehensive plans.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)in a way ok news for Biden (he can handle coming in second in Iowa just fine, dropping any lower would be a problem).
Bad news for Bernie.
Good news for Buttigieg moving back to fourth and only two behind Bernie.
Bad news for Harris...dropping behind Buttigieg is why she's "moving to Iowa."
Lotta time to go, and this is probably going to change a few times before February.
Although anyone I didn't name? You might want to start thinking about your exit strategy.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMississippi
(776 posts)in the caucuses.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)They've left a bad taste in the mouths of many Democrats.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(42,646 posts)If your first choice is not at 15% or more at your caucus, then you have to pick a viable candidate (2 non viable candidates' supporters can also join together for one of them, as long as the combined votes are at least 15%), and Warren is more preferred over Biden in terms of people's 2nd choice, so her share goes up of those delegates. I hope they really crack down on Sanders people trying to gangster votes if/when Bernie fails to hit the 15% viability threshold in the initial vote.
The caucuses have to go, I so hope they eventually are replaced by a semi-closed primary. Would also love to see true ranked choice voting in them as well.
Obviously, this is all subject to major change as we get nearer to the voting. Biden will be fine if he goes no lower than 2nd in IA, NH, and NV, as he will win SC going away then, I am fairly sure. Bernie is blocking Warren atm from taking the lead overall, and Bernie will be doing Biden a big favour as he will eventually go negative on Warren himself. Sanders' non-DU troll types already are hitting her hard already, which is a really bad look for Sanders.
Pete will never go negative on Biden I am almost certain of that, and many of his and Klobuchar's supporters will go to Biden if/when they both drop out.
Link to tweet
Link to tweet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#Democratic_Party_process
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(93,847 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMississippi
(776 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
sharedvalues
(6,916 posts)Good for Warren. That's all I'll say
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
peggysue2
(10,811 posts)looking at an ultimate head-to-head match between Biden and Warren. Interesting to see where we go from here.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
5starlib
(191 posts)Even if Warren were to win by 1%, the media will crow that she will be the nominee. Biden will probably win by 30 points in South Carolina, but the media will discount it cause it's black voters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,173 posts)and i think she will do well. much better than Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
aeromanKC
(3,307 posts)Pretty low bar there. (regarding Sanders)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMississippi
(776 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....still didn't get the nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMississippi
(776 posts)"it is rigged" narrative.
I hope the DNC educates people ahead of time that the one with the most delegates wins -- regardless of who won in the early states and that ALL American Democrats have a say in who becomes the nominee -- not just the ultra progressive white people from IA and NH.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,173 posts)Clinton.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ancianita
(35,812 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
colsohlibgal
(5,275 posts)It looks like this may well soon be a two person race, Warren and Biden.
Still like Marianne Williamson more each time I hear her but she has no chance. I think Harris and Mayor Pete have a slight chance.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
pnwmom
(108,925 posts)of error it is a tie. One of the candidates doesn't have a "lead."
I wish headline writers would be accurate in reporting this.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMississippi
(776 posts)She would make an excellent POTUS if nominated, the odds of which are very small.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tipperary
(6,930 posts)Time will tell.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Ligyron
(7,592 posts)That's what the people want to hear. Not some excuse that reeks of cowardice. Plus she's smart and has actual policy proposals people like.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Final Selzer Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll Result : Trump 28% Cruz 23% Rubio 15% v. Actual Results : Cruz 28% Trump 24% Rubio 23%
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Shes finally demonstrated to me that she can take on the Biden jiggernaught by doing so well on this A+ poll of a first in-the-nation state. Proud to finally be able to go with my heart, switch my support to the lady I have loved and adored for years, and go all in for Liz Warren, the first female POTUS!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Eric J in MN
(35,619 posts)NT
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,836 posts)for the Sanders campaign.. and J. Biden has never done this well in Iowa before.. he is still in there with a solid base.. been saying for a while now.. this is your top two in Iowa.. they are going to split the caucus.. and one of them is going to roar out of here.. to a different reality somewhere else.. but the second place winner is going to be way up there.. it is going to be a nail biter just like 2016
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Just what most of us wanted.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,207 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
gulliver
(13,142 posts)Warren's chief competitor (Sanders) has only 11%. Biden's competitors combine for 29%. I'm betting Buttigieg, Harris, Klobuchar, Booker, Gabbard, O'Rourke, Yang, and Steyer drop out before Bernie if past is prolog.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden