The Latest Iowa Poll Is Good News For Elizabeth Warren And Tulsi Gabbard

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight

Tulsi Gabbard is one poll away from the October debate

As a reminder, to qualify for the debate, candidates must receive at least 2 percent support in four qualifying national or early-state polls released between June 28 and Oct. 1 and collect campaign contributions from 130,000 unique donors (including at least 400 individual donors in at least 20 states).

Since these are the same criteria as were used for the third debate (the only change is a longer qualification period), the 10 candidates who participated in September’s debate have already qualified for October. And earlier this month, philanthropist Tom Steyer became the 11th candidate to meet these criteria. Now, Gabbard is just one qualifying poll away from becoming the 12th. By our count, she has gotten 2 percent or more in three approved polls (including Selzer’s), and her campaign says it has already hit the fundraising thresholds.

The six other “major” Democratic candidates (by FiveThirtyEight’s definition) are all far from qualifying: Only author Marianne Williamson has met the donor requirement or has even one approved poll to her name, making Gabbard really the only candidate whose debate fate is still in suspense. But time is running out — the last day a poll can count toward the fourth debate is next Tuesday, Oct. 1.

[LincolnRossiter]

1. It's already going to be two nights, so I don't care as much.

Still wish the DNC would revise its thinking on a "big and little table" to keep all the frontrunners on stage at the same time.

[thesquanderer]

2. I have not seen any confirmation that they are breaking into two nights.

Last I saw, with 11 qualifying, they had not yet made that decision. They may wait to see if a twelfth qualifies before making that decision.

[LincolnRossiter]

3. It's my understanding that adopted rules won't allow more than ten on stage at a time.

Rules can change, but I’m pretty sure that’s currently accurate.

[thesquanderer]

4. Google says that Steyer qualified to make it 11, but DNC hasn't decided on # of nights.

Or if they have, they're not saying. That's why I figure maybe they're waiting to see if there's a 12th.