Why Elizabeth Warren is a bigger Iowa front-runner than you think

[BeyondGeography]

(CNN)The headlines coming off a new poll in Iowa -- sponsored by CNN and the Des Moines Register -- largely focus on the fact that Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is now at the top tier of the 2020 field in the crucial Iowa caucuses. That notion drastically undersells how strong a position Warren is actually in.

Yes, Warren tops the field in the CNN-DMR poll with 22% support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 20% (the poll has a four-point margin of error, putting the two essentially in a tie). Warren and Biden are followed distantly by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 11%.
But that doesn't tell the whole story: The topline numbers are actually the least good thing for Warren in the poll.

Consider this:
* Warren gained 7 points from the June DMR/CNN poll and has almost tripled her support in the state from a December 2018 poll. Biden, meanwhile, has lost support in each of the four DMR/CNN polls between December 2018 and now. And Sanders dropped 5 points from just June until now.
* Her favorable numbers in the poll also make clear how much energy and passion is behind her candidacy presently. Three-quarters of those polled had a favorable view of her, including a whopping 44% who had a "very favorable" opinion. That compares very favorably to the 29% who view Biden very favorably and the 26% who feel that same way about Sanders.
* Warren is the first or second choice of 42% of those polled. That's well in front of Biden (30% first/second combined), Sanders (21%), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (18%) and California Sen. Kamala Harris (16%).

Any one of those three data points would suggest that this poll may have only caught the start of Warren's rise in Iowa. All three together suggest she is well positioned to take off like a rocket ship in the state. Not only does she already have a broad-base of support in the state (as evidence by the topline numbers) but she also has significant passion among those who are for her and remains well-liked -- and a possible voting option -- for those who say she is their second choice at the moment.

More at https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/23/politics/elizabeth-warren-iowa-joe-biden-2020/index.html

[LincolnRossiter]

1. If Biden got Warren's media coverage he'd probably be at 45% right now.

The MSM these days are good for two types of story: Hit pieces on Biden over meaningless or disproven accusations, and puff pieces for Warren.

She's running a good campaign, but she should hope that the media continue to apply zero scrutiny to her while riding Biden all day long.

And FWIW, I have several Warren-supporting friends who admit that she's almost entirely escaped negative coverage since the silly DNA thing and that Biden has basically been a heat shield for the rest of the field.

They tell me to "just deal with it." Doesn't seem like the best way to ensure that we produce the strongest candidate for the general, though.

[Green Line]

4. Isn't this the truth

[Bradshaw3]

5. Hahahaha

Oh that mean ole media, they are so unfair to certain people.

[LincolnRossiter]

12. Well they are.

Oh that mean ole media, they are so unfair to certain people.

As the joker above you and my aforementioned friends have said, there’s really nothing to do except “deal with it.” It is what it is. But if you think our polipop media actually do a good job of covering national elections and ensuring that voters get optimal, informative exposure to candidates, issues, and the state of the race, you need your head examined. For insight into their incompetence, see election 2016. Trump wasn’t possible without the media. They spend more time pushing agendas (which are primarily profit/ratings-based) and chasing their tails than they do actually reporting.

FWIW I’m glad Joe doesn’t piss and moan about it. Candidates shouldn’t whine. As a regular supporter, however, complaining about something I can’t change is just one way of coping. Dealing with it as it were.

[JCMach1]

7. Really, and MSNBC was pushing the line that they were 'statistically' tied

Which is true, but that's the story they were pushing... not Warren taking the lead... then they cued some video of Biden dancing...

[HopeAgain]

9. So deal with it

Politics is what it is, and it certainly isn't fair. And how exactly is she "riding Biden?"

[BeyondGeography]

10. Boo hoo...She's taking hits

See, Rendell, Ed, on hypocrisy. And the Politico/CFPB story, which ran with a headline more vile than any Biden article. Today Axios found two women in a focus group in Wisconsin who don’t like her, which became, “Voters like the policies but not Warren,” with a b-word reference included in the article.

Strong candidates can go over the head of the media and connect with people. She’s a very strong candidate.

[karynnj]

11. The front runner ALWAYS gets the most scrutiny

I would not say that the media coverage of Warren has been all positive. You need to consider the number of media stories on the race that seem to all have an obligatory paragraph on the dangers of the party being pulled "too far to the Left". The immediate conclusion is that that is something that could make an easier race for Trump. This is followed by something saying that Biden is someone more people in the middle are comfortable with.

This is an attack on Warren (and Sanders and likely Harris ), while it repeated what is considered a major reasons to vote for Biden. In some ways it is more insidious - especially if no names are mentioned. The ONLY way to refute it for Warren is to keep being who she is rather than bringing up the claim to attempt to dispatch it.

Biden's biggest asset is his long career and his character. His long career means there are also decisions he made - often decades ago - that are negatives. That long career is both an asset and a liability. It defines who he is.

[LincolnRossiter]

13. Don't disagree with your central point, but she's attained enough prominence to merit more

Last edited Mon Sep 23, 2019, 06:13 PM - Edit history (1)

The front runner ALWAYS gets the most scrutiny

scrutiny than indirect questions about the true state of the party’s diehard supporters (moderate vs. more progressive). And to that point, the volume, nature, and quality of the scrutiny Biden receives is night and day when compared to Sen. Warren.

Buyers beware. The media can let her skate through the primary only to have her torn to shreds in the general with distorted charges of gun grabbing and socialism and God knows what the GOP with just make up. Because they’ll give anything that comes out of Trump’s mouth the “but is that accurate and what does the other side think” treatment no matter how true or false or irrelevant. Hillary Clinton started the 2016 election as one of the most popular and admired women in the world. She finished as the second least favorably viewed candidate in history (Trump was least favorably viewed).

[blm]

2. Slow, steady, solid

Organized

[List left]

3. Exactly... nt

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

6. So damn proud of Elizabeth!! She's running a helluva campaign!!

Would expect nothing less from the most qualified female candidate to ever run for President.

Elizabeth's forward-looking progressive agenda, complete with comprehensive policy proposals, is clearly more popular than Joe's moderate incrementalist approach... good for her!!


Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!! or
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[Tipperary]

8. K and r.