Warren Grabs the Lead In California

[applegrove]

Warren Grabs the Lead In California

September 23, 2019 at 5:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 170 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2019/09/23/warren-grabs-the-lead-in-california/

"SNIP....

A new Capitol Weekly poll in California finds Elizabeth Warren leading the Democratic presidential field with 29%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 21%, Joe Biden at 18%, Kamala Harris at 11%, Pete Buttigieg at 7% and Andrew Yang at 4%.

Warren also leads as the second-choice candidate with 25%, followed by Harris at 16% and Sanders at 14%.

.....SNIP"

[left-of-center2012]

1. Kamala Harris at 11% ???

In her home state.
That can't be good.

[customerserviceguy]

3. She's fading

If she can't even come in second in California, where she has been elected to statewide office multiple times, even when GOP'ers were voting, then it's over.

[left-of-center2012]

4. They know her better than we do

And are saying "No thank you"

[ecstatic]

30. I don't think it's like that. It appears that

Californians are like the rest of the country and don't necessarily factor in home state loyalty.

Like the rest of us, their main priority appears to be removing trump ASAP.

Which candidate has consistently been clear and concise on the matter of impeachment?

[caraher]

9. That does seem significant

I don't see a path for Harris if she can't win California.

Of course, it's just a poll... But still, she needs strong support from her home state.

[ritapria]

2. One Silver Lining for Bernie

He has a 17% lead over Liz amongst Latinx voters in CA …...I hope the same holds true in NV ...I am not in denial ….Warren has all the momentum right now …...

[BlueMississippi]

14. BS cannot get the nomination. He is finished already.

He should drop out.

[ritapria]

26. He is leading Joe in CA

[BlueMississippi]

28. No he is not

This is a fake poll

[highplainsdem]

5. One of 3 CA polls that came out the same day. One had Biden ahead by 9, one had Biden & Sanders tied

for the lead. In both those CA polls Warren trailed Biden and Sanders.

SurveyUSA, the highest rated poll, had these results: Biden 27%, Sanders 18%, Warren 16%, Harris 13%, Yang 7%, Buttigieg 3%, O'Rourke & Castro 2%, all others 1% or less

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287284247


Emerson had these results: Biden & Sanders 26%, Warren 20%, Yang 7%, Harris 6%, O'Rourke 5%, Buttigieg 4%, Gabbard 2%, all others 1% or less

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287283505

[applegrove]

6. Thanks.

[highplainsdem]

8. It was one of the most confusing days yet for checking polls.

OTOH, the polls gave hope to three candidates' supporters, so there was a silver lining, even if it was a blurry one.

[LincolnRossiter]

7. Thanks for the great info as always, highplains.

The Cali race will be heavily influenced by what happens early on once voting starts. But I like Jie’s position heading into it.

Just noted that the “Capital Weekly” isn’t even the most recent poll by sample.

[mysteryowl]

10. I predict Sen. Warren is our next President of the US.

And, I don't say that just because I support her, although, that helps.

[BlueMississippi]

11. Fake news and fake poll

Look .. they are tracking BS at 39 to 45% and his popularity is going up when all the data suggests that BS is in freefall. Their poll doesn't have Biden even on the radar in the tracking.



If some polls are outliers, this one is in the fifth galaxy down.

[applegrove]

12. It makes perfect sense. California is more like the DU than the rest of the country.

[BlueMississippi]

13. It is not

All the Democrats who flipped seats in the blue wave were moderates.

CA's governor and both senators are moderate.

[applegrove]

15. But they are not affraid of medicare for all and other liberal policies.

Biden is running further to the center.

[PhoenixDem]

17. MFA is political suicide

CA is not that much different from the rest of the nation.

[applegrove]

18. Able politicians could make it acceptable. I know it is not right now.

But it works. And is cheaper. And fairer.

[BlueMississippi]

20. Further to the center is good -- that is where America is

MFA is a pipe-dream -- a slogan geared to get votes by preying on ultra-left's hopes of creating a socialist utopia.
It has zero chance of even getting through a single committee in either house.

[applegrove]

22. Yup that is where people are. But there was a time when people thought they didn't want the ACA

because they were told government involved healthcare was always bad.

[BlueMississippi]

24. Vast difference between ACA and MFA

One is government assisted (ACA) and another is government run (MFA.)

[applegrove]

25. People can change their views. Most Western countries have.

[BlueMississippi]

29. Americans will not change their view before 2020. nt

[emmaverybo]

27. No. Just no. Known for advances in many fields, and its bigger cities for social liberalism. But it

is not as a whole state on the whole as inclined to leftist politics as the myths perpetuated by non-
Californians suggest.

[PhoenixDem]

16. I think this is an online clickity-click poll n/t

[applegrove]

19. Nope. All the signs it is regular scientific polling. They are using statistical

jargon and methos. They know the party affiliation of the people they pollled. These people were surveyed.

[BlueMississippi]

21. No where does it say that they actually selected the sample randomly and took interviews

Which usually means it is a clickity-click online poll.

Online polls also use statistics and use jargon. The fault likes in the methodology and not statistics. The cohort is unreliable when it is an opt-in online cohort.

[applegrove]

23. True.