**A + Rated Monmouth Poll** NH Elizabeth 27% Joe 25% Bernie 12%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Among registered New Hampshire Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate
in the February 2020 Democratic primary, 27% currently support Warren and 25% support Biden. The
only other candidates in double digits are Sanders at 12% and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 10%.
Others with measurable support are California Sen. Kamala Harris (3%), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
(2%), Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (2%), Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (2%), former hedge fund
manager Tom Steyer (2%), and entrepreneur Andrew Yang (2%). The remaining 10 candidates included
in the poll earn 1% or less

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nh_092419.pdf/

[George II]

1. At this rate, Warren would get 12-13 delegates, Biden 12-11. Everyone else 0.

[scheming daemons]

2. If Bernie gets 0 delegates in next-door-neighbor New Hampshire...

...a state he got 60% of the votes in during the 2016 cycle....


...his campaign is toast.

[Thekaspervote]

3. I saw a poll posted here yesterday that Sanders has converted 0% of 2016 Hillary voters

[comradebillyboy]

14. He hasn't even bothered to try. He's done nothing to expand his base

and it shows in his declining support.

[Hortensis]

17. Leaped to my mind also. A convention without "lock her up" types

acting out. Inside anyway, and that's what counts. They can make all the noise they want in the street with the trumpsters.

[ritapria]

4. Monmouth Grossly oversampled NH voters aged 50+

This age breakdown in this poll sample is as follows : 18-34 (12% ) 35- 49% (18%) 50 -64 (35%) 65+ (35%) If you over sample voters over the age of 50 , you will end up with a result showing Bernie in the tank …. ….. I do give Monmouth credit for transparency

[comradebillyboy]

15. Yeah, sure. Those professsional polling operations don't know what

they are doing.

[Demsrule86]

5. This is a New Hampshire poll...surprised it is this close.

She is literally next door...my daughter and her hubs live in New Hampshire...he worked in Bostonl.

[ritapria]

6. 2016 NH DEM Primary Age Breakdown (NBC Exit Poll)

Monmouth NH Poll Released Today ……. Monmouth Sample : NH Voters aged 65 + ( 35% of sample ) v NH 2016 Dem Primary ( 18% of Vote)…..Monmouth Sample: NH Voters under age of 50 ( 30% of sample) v NH 2016 Dem Primary ( 52% of vote) …... NH Voters aged 18- 34 are Bernie's Wheelhouse and these folks barely made into their NH sample ( just 12% of sample) v. NH 2016 Dem Prmary ( 25% of vote) …...

[highplainsdem]

7. From the 6th paragraph: "Monmouth analysts ran a variety of different likely voter models in

addition to the benchmark reported in this release. A model that increases the share of lower propensity voters shows Biden with 27% support, Warren with 25%, Sanders with 14% and Buttigieg with 9%. A model that gives more weight to traditional primary voters shows Warren with 29% support, Biden with 24%, Buttigieg with 11%, and Sanders with 10%."

[ritapria]

8. I am citing Monmouth's Weighted NH Demographic Model

[StevieM]

9. Does Monmouth count towards qualifying for the debates?

If it does, then I think this gets Gabbard in.

[ritapria]

10. I Believe Monmouth is a Poll counted by the DNC for debate inclusion

[StevieM]

11. Yep, she got in.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/24/tulsi-gabbard-qualifies-for-october-primary-debate-1509412

[DrFunkenstein]

12. In Fairness, People Are Just Finding Out Who Biden Is

He hasn't been on the scene very long. They'll probably break for him once they get to know him.

[comradebillyboy]

13. Reflective of the good work being done by the Biden and Warren campaigns.

And the solid performance on the campaign trail by both Biden and Warren is also praiseworthy. Warren has run the best campaign so far but Biden's team is also doing a good professional job.

[LAS14]

16. How can they publish a poll with such biased age participation? How does that work??? nt