Warren Leading in Iowa, NH, and Now CALIFORNIA (Biden 3rd)

[DrFunkenstein]

Take everything with a grain of salt, but make no mistake that the Biden campaign is going to cringe. Polls showing Warren in front of the pack in Iowa and New Hampshire have appeared this week, and now we can add California to the growing list.

The latest monthly tracking poll for California’s March 2020 Democratic primary election shows Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren increasing her share of the vote, for the first time pushing former Vice President Joe Biden down to third place among likely voters.

First Choice
Elizabeth Warren - 29%
Bernie Sanders - 21%
Joe Biden - 18%
Kamala Harris - 11%
Peter Buttigieg - 7%

Second Choice
Elizabeth Warren - 25%
Kamala Harris - 16%
Bernie Sanders - 14%

Interested in Learning More
Elizabeth Warren - 19%
Kamala Harris - 16%
Peter Buttigieg - 14%

If Electability Wasn’t a Concern
Elizabeth Warren - 26%
Bernie Sanders - 20%
Peter Buttigieg - 13%

https://capitolweekly.net/warren-takes-california-lead-in-new-ca120-tracking-poll/

Too early to represent a trend, but as my ole' grandma used to say, "It's better than a kick in the balls."

[BeyondGeography]

1. Grandma just made me laugh

[Celerity]

14. +10000

[blm]

2. Thanks, Doc. She is running a great campaign, which will serve Democrats well

In the general election if she is our nominee.

[DrFunkenstein]

6. Hey blm!

[still_one]

3. Here is how those who participated in the poll was determined

"Respondents were emailed surveys based on voter file email addresses provided by Political Data Inc, utilizing PDI’s emailing tools and Survey Monkey polling instrument, with a match-back to the voter file utilizing the PD I unique voter ID. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once, and no surveys were conducted outside of the target population."

I also question this poll listing as Sanders in the 20% range and second place especially with the recent polls from well established polls in Iowa and NH a few hours ago listing Warren slightly ahead in a statistical tie with Biden in both Iowa and NH, with Sanders in a very distant third

I'll wait for the other polls to weigh in, and as far as the OPs assessment about the Biden camp, its always been a competitive race, but if he is basing it on this poll, the earlier polls from NH and Iowa, and I suspect subsequent polls will demonstrate that at this point in time it is a two person race between Warren and Biden, with Sanders losing traction

[DrFunkenstein]

4. Agreed. Biden Is Still In an Enviable Position.

The whole impeachment thing is going to shake the tree, so it is hard to see what effect it will have on proceedings. I'd be lying if I said that I knew how it would effect Biden's candidacy.

As always, time will tell.

[still_one]

13. The impeachment inquiry is not about Biden. If the implication is the Ukraine situation is because

of Biden doing some "wrong doing", that is not only a republican talking point, but a false narrative.

The policy of the Obama administration with Ukraine was well reported, and it was to withhold the U.S. backing loans to Ukraine unless they replaced the Ukraine prosecutor who refused to prosecute corruption cases. It was a policy that was supported by the Western allies, and one previous administrations agreed with

As for any illegal activity regarding Biden's son, there is no evidence to indicate such, and Ukraine has come out and said there was nothing illegal regarding his activities with the Ukrainian gas and oil company

As far impeachment is concerned, that is an unknown, but I suspect it won't impact 2020 good or bad one way or another, because most people are well aware what trump is, and has done.

All I am saying is most of the recent polls indicated Warren is gaining significant traction, Biden is staying the same, and Sanders is losing traction.

What will determine the nomination will be the undecided Democratic voters in my view, and that is the great unknown with any of these polls so far out from the first primary

[blm]

16. Pretty sure Doc didn't mean it that way. More like democrats feeling

more empathy for Biden because of Trump’s attack on him.

Doc wouldn’t spread right wing talking points any more than you or I would, still.

[still_one]

20. Appreciate that. Regardless, I think it will be the undecided Democratic voters that will determine

our nominee, and I believe the impeachment process will not have that much impact in who those undecided Democratic voters choose as the nominee, since they are well aware of what trump has done.

As for the general election, that is the wild card how the impeachment process will impact things, and in that case THOSE undecided voters will be swayed by the process I think.

[blm]

21. One of those wait and see times.

[still_one]

23. I think so

[DrFunkenstein]

24. Absolutely. I Meant That It Could End Up Elevating Biden as Trump's Rival

By making the conversation about those two, it only drowns out the other candidates.

[ritapria]

5. Liz has the MoJo

Bernard , or " BS" as he is frequently to referred to, valiantly strives to fend off the gust winds from Hurricane Elizabeth

[PhoenixDem]

8. BS is done. Finished. Caput. nt

[PhoenixDem]

7. That Capitol Weekly is a fake online poll

It has BS trending between 32% and 48% throughout the summer. It has Biden barely on the radar, below Tulsi Gabbard. No other poll in the universe shows this.




It is not only an outlier and outside the ballpark, it is several states over.

[Thekaspervote]

9. Well that explains a lot... thx for posting!

[OilemFirchen]

19. It's the most bizarre poll presentation I've ever seen.

It's a series of "infographics", with no explanation of the y-axis. Highlight the candidates' pictures and note the numbers below. There's no explanation for what the number represents, but it doesn't correspond in any manner to the candidate's presumed "position" (if that's what the y-axis shows).

There are no metrics at all. No CI. No MOE. No explanation of weighting. The crosstabs aren't.

It's a farking mess. IOW, perfect for the neo-science crowd.

[TidalWave46]

22. That's just strange. NT

[BlueMississippi]

10. Clickity-click poll in California - completely unreliable nt

[ritapria]

11. I don't understand - Bernie at 42%

He is at 21% in their poll

[NYMinute]

12. Poll is not credible nt

[still_one]

17. I agree, and it counterdicts the earlier Iowa and NH polls which essentily had Warren slightly ahead

of Biden, a statistical tie, and Sanders in a distance third

It also runs counter to other polls taking from California

Since this is how they determined who made up this poll, I also question its results

Respondents were emailed surveys based on voter file email addresses provided by Political Data Inc, utilizing PDI’s emailing tools and Survey Monkey polling instrument, with a match-back to the voter file utilizing the PDI unique voter ID. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once, and no surveys were conducted outside of the target population.

[ritapria]

15. Bernie is at 22% in Emerson College National Poll (B+)

Biden 25% Warren 23% Bernard 22%

[PhoenixDem]

18. BS should stop looking at polls - it is already over for him nt

[ritapria]

25. OKAY , Forget the Polls

"BS" is still drawing crowds between 500 and 600 in small Iowa Towns ...Not bad for an alleged 11 percenter.... If they show up and vote he'll do a lot better than 11% ...If not, he'll be routed as indicated in the Des Moines Register Poll

[FloridaBlues]

26. With the rise in polls warren will face some vetting of her policies

Especially if she doesn't have a plan B if ultra rich tax doesn't pass congress which many of her plans are hinged on paying these plans.
It's early in the process.

[demigoddess]

27. I'm happy!

[highplainsdem]

28. Two other CA state polls came out the same day with very different results.

SurveyUSA -- the highest rated poll: Biden 33%, Warren 19%, Sanders 17%, Harris 6%, Buttigieg 5%

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287285230



Emerson: Biden & Sanders 26%, Warren 20%, Yang 7%, Harris 6%

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287283505

[ritapria]

29. Another New National Poll from Reuters -Ipsos

Among Registered Voters : Biden 22% Warren 17% Bernie 14% Buttigieg 4 % Harris 4% ….. Among Adults : Biden 20% Warren 14% Bernie 13 % Buttigieg 4% Harris 4%

[ritapria]

30. Yet another National Poll from Rasmussen - Harris X

Among registered voters : Biden 29 % Bernie 16% Warren 16 % Harris 5 % Buttigieg 4% …. Current RCP AVG : Biden 29.6% Liz 19.7% Bernard S. 17.1 % Buttigieg 6.0 % Harris 5.6%